Good morning all, it's another exciting Oscar nominations morning! Let's see what the Academy did this year.
- They really doubled down on the drawn out nomination announcement, didn't they? It felt much more well produced this year, but it just went on interminably. They're clearly trying to work out the kinks for a full 30 minute prime-time presentation at some point in the near future, but I'll always prefer the simple live reading of the nominees. At least the second half was all live with no prerecorded bits. And did no one practice with Tiffany Haddish on how to say some of those names? She made it charming, but still.
- Speaking of which, how strange was it to ask Tiffany Haddish to announce when she was considered on the cusp of getting nominated? I wonder if producers told her ahead of time so she wouldn't be too disappointed on camera?
- Three Billboards still feels like the front-runner after getting some unexpected nominations, but it's crazy that they left off McDonagh for Director. Normally I'd consider that a deathblow to the film, but in the era of untethering Director to Picture, I'm less sure it matters at all.
- Phantom Thread did much better than expected, getting Supporting Actress, Director, and Picture! Did not see that coming at all.
- Also doing better than expected: Mudbound. I was sure the Netflix of it all would mean few to no nominations, but it was certainly close to a Picture nomination with 4 nominations (including a record first nomination for a woman for Cinematography!)
- The Post, once thought a front-runner, got all of 2 nominations. Baby Driver got more than that!
- So Kobe Bryant is an Oscar nominee now. That's neat.
- Call Me By Your Name
- Darkest Hour
- Dunkirk
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Phantom Thread
- The Post
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: I'm partial to Three Billboards and Shape of Water. But I also think Lady Bird would be a really interesting, smart choice this year given the climate in Hollywood.
Who Will Win: Right now Three Billboards feels pretty likely. That said, the extra long second phase means another film has time to capitalize on the backlash brewing. If that happens, I'm certain Lady Bird will prevail.
Surprises: Phantom Thread! Not at all a film I thought would show up here. When PTA was nominated I thought for sure he'd be a lone director nominee.
Best Director
- Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread
- Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
- Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
- Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
- Jordan Peele - Get Out
Who Should Win: I'd probably choose del Toro. I usually run very cold on him, so I was shocked how much I liked what he did with this film.
Who Will Win: Tough call. The momentum right now is with del Toro, but I really think they're going to want to push for another woman winner this year, so Gerwig has a great shot.
Surprises: PTA came out of nowhere! And at the expense of McDonagh, no less. Also, it's crazy that Nolan took this long to get his first Director nomination. A few months ago he felt like a sure winner, now I think he was barely on the cusp of this lineup.
Best Actor
- Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
- Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
- Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
- Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
- Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq
Who Should Win: Chalamet is probably the best one here. He's asked to do a lot with that character and given his young age it's all the more impressive he pulls it off.
Who Will Win: Oldman. He felt shaky for a bit, but he seems to have recovered and seems to be on a course to win an Oscar. I wish it was for a different performance but can't argue that he is undeserving.
Surprises: No James Franco! I guess the last minute controversy surrounding him did him in. I was really hoping to see him bring Tommy Wiseau to the Oscars, so that's a disappointment.
Best Actress
- Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
- Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
- Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
- Meryl Streep - The Post
Who Should Win: Wow, tough call! I really like all of these but Streep, but even she is good. I think I'd go with Hawkins by a nose, but Ronan and McDormand are just as deserving.
Who Will Win: McDormand has been steamrolling. She's hard to argue with, so I doubt she loses with such heat behind her film right now. But if they want to spread it around (she already won once), then I think Ronan is the likely beneficiary.
Surprises: None really, this was the lineup most expected for a while.
Best Supporting Actor
- Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
- Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
- Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World
- Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: I'm big on Rockwell this year, so I'm glad to see him doing so well. Jenkins would also be a worthy choice though.
Who Will Win: I guess Rockwell is on track to win, but Dafoe seemed so likely until a few weeks ago. That said, Rockwell has Harrelson to siphon votes now, so that could be enough to lead to a surprise Dafoe win if the two are close.
Surprises: None of the Call Me By Your Name guys got in. Perhaps they split votes among fans?
Best Supporting Actress
- Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
- Allison Janney - I, Tonya
- Leslie Manville - Phantom Thread
- Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
- Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water
Who Should Win: I'd go with Metcalf, she gives a very lived in performance.
Who Will Win: This one is tough. I think it's Janney. She is well liked in the industry and has worked with everyone (she reminds me of JK Simmons from a few years ago in that respect). That said, Lady Bird may not have many chances to win anywhere, and this could be the easiest place to reward it.
Surprises: Octavia Spencer again with the nomination. I liked her more in this than her last two nominations (and honestly she may have been close on my ballot TBH), but it's crazy how easily she seems to get in, especially at the expense of someone like Holly Hunter, who gave the best Supporting performance of the year!
The last few years have shown that nothing is set in stone until the awards are given out. That said, this feels like a more predictable year than normal, at least in the acting categories. Picture and Director though? I'm not calling anything a sure thing this time. Will the year of Women play out to its logical conclusion? Or will the generally well liked Three Billboards be enough to win voters over? We won't know for a month and a half, a long time for the winds to shift!
Nomination Tally
The Shape of Water - 13
Dunkirk - 8
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 7
Phantom Thread - 6
Darkest Hour - 6
Lady Bird - 5
Blade Runner 2049 - 5
Call Me By Your Name - 4
Get Out - 4
Mudbound - 4
Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 4
I, Tonya - 3
Baby Driver - 3
The Post - 2 (least of the Best Pictures)
Victoria & Abdul - 2
Coco - 2
Beauty and the Beast - 2
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