Welcome to another year of Oscar nominations! A few thoughts first...
- The presumed frontrunners all did as well as expected. I suspect this will be one of those easy to predict years where most everything follows the predetermined plan, much like last year. That said, the Picture nominees are largely excellent. Four of my five favorite films of the year all made it in.
- So Wes Anderson is definitely going to win his only Oscar for a short film, right?
- Speaking of short films, the weirdest nomination of the day was probably realizing that the Napoleon Dynamite filmmakers got their first nominations ever in Animated Short this year.
- We need to talk about Bradley Cooper. Another three nominations for him this year, bringing his total to an absurd twelve. And he has no chance in any of the three categories this year. At some point voters will get tired of him (it's inevitable), and he's either going to die with a ridiculous number of nominations and no wins, or he needs to win soon. It's clearer every year he should have won for his performance in A Star is Born.
- People I'm excited to see get their first nominations (regardless of quality of film/performance): Colman Domingo, Cillian Murphy, Jeffrey Wright, Sterling K. Brown, Emily Blunt, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Jonathan Glazer.
- I thought the nomination presentation was excellent. The hosts were on point, the audience was getting into it with their reactions, and the overall presentation was classy. Truly the ideal nomination presentation. Also, my favorite running joke was in every category it was nominated, it was always "And Poor Things," in such a throw away manner.
Best Picture
Who Should Win: With the caveat that Zone of Interest seems very interesting to me, I think Oppenheimer should probably win. I liked Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things a little bit more, but when the Academy has the chance to reward a genuine blockbuster that was also a critical darling, they should take it. These kinds of chances come along so rarely, they'd be foolish to ignore it now.
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer. Easily. It's the right confluence of things. That said, I wonder a bit about The Holdovers. It was coming on strong recently, and could potentially win three other awards, making it very formidable.
Surprises: Literally none. I prewrote the list of ten nominees before the nominations were announced as a placeholder for this post, and I didn't have to change any of them. These ten films really did solidify as the ten in recent weeks.
Best Director
Who Should Win: Nolan, it's his time. As I said above about Bradley Cooper, when the right time comes along for someone this big, they need to take it. Oppenheimer is Nolan's best film, and he is a major filmmaker. If not now, when?
Who Will Win: Nolan seems locked at this point. Honestly, no one else even really seems like a threat. Maybe Scorsese if they feel like he needs one more win, but honestly it is Nolan's to lose.
Surprises: I'm not totally sold on Barbie as a film, but if they liked it as much as it seems, Greta Gerwig was the reason that film worked. They have an aversion to blockbuster filmmakers here of late (Denis Villenueve says "Hi."), so it wasn't totally unexpected, just unfortunate. Luckily they had the sense to sub in another female filmmaker, as the optics of none when Gerwig was right there would be bad.
Best Actor
Who Should Win: Cillian Murphy truly holds his film together in an amazing way. And it is a transformative performance, too. I'm generally not impressed with biopic performances, but the nature of what Oppenheimer is as a film really serves Murphy well as an opportunity to flex his acting chops.
Who Will Win: It seems like a two person race between Murphy and Giamatti. Honestly, both would make me delighted. My gut all season has told me Murphy will win this, but many people don't seem to think he is a lock. But Oppenheimer is Murphy, it's hard to appreciate the film and not also his work in it. That said, Giamatti is beloved and has been charming everyone this season. I could totally see him sweeping in, especially when voters start to see how often they're rewarding Oppenheimer and feeling like maybe they should vote for something else somewhere. That said, right now I say Murphy wins as part of a sweep, but I'll wait until closer to the awards to call it.
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
Who Should Win: With the caveat that Zone of Interest seems very interesting to me, I think Oppenheimer should probably win. I liked Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things a little bit more, but when the Academy has the chance to reward a genuine blockbuster that was also a critical darling, they should take it. These kinds of chances come along so rarely, they'd be foolish to ignore it now.
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer. Easily. It's the right confluence of things. That said, I wonder a bit about The Holdovers. It was coming on strong recently, and could potentially win three other awards, making it very formidable.
Surprises: Literally none. I prewrote the list of ten nominees before the nominations were announced as a placeholder for this post, and I didn't have to change any of them. These ten films really did solidify as the ten in recent weeks.
Best Director
- Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
- Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Thinigs
- Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
- Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
Who Should Win: Nolan, it's his time. As I said above about Bradley Cooper, when the right time comes along for someone this big, they need to take it. Oppenheimer is Nolan's best film, and he is a major filmmaker. If not now, when?
Who Will Win: Nolan seems locked at this point. Honestly, no one else even really seems like a threat. Maybe Scorsese if they feel like he needs one more win, but honestly it is Nolan's to lose.
Surprises: I'm not totally sold on Barbie as a film, but if they liked it as much as it seems, Greta Gerwig was the reason that film worked. They have an aversion to blockbuster filmmakers here of late (Denis Villenueve says "Hi."), so it wasn't totally unexpected, just unfortunate. Luckily they had the sense to sub in another female filmmaker, as the optics of none when Gerwig was right there would be bad.
Best Actor
- Bradley Cooper - Maestro
- Colman Domingo - Rustin
- Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
- Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
- Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
Who Should Win: Cillian Murphy truly holds his film together in an amazing way. And it is a transformative performance, too. I'm generally not impressed with biopic performances, but the nature of what Oppenheimer is as a film really serves Murphy well as an opportunity to flex his acting chops.
Who Will Win: It seems like a two person race between Murphy and Giamatti. Honestly, both would make me delighted. My gut all season has told me Murphy will win this, but many people don't seem to think he is a lock. But Oppenheimer is Murphy, it's hard to appreciate the film and not also his work in it. That said, Giamatti is beloved and has been charming everyone this season. I could totally see him sweeping in, especially when voters start to see how often they're rewarding Oppenheimer and feeling like maybe they should vote for something else somewhere. That said, right now I say Murphy wins as part of a sweep, but I'll wait until closer to the awards to call it.
Surprises: No Leonardo DiCaprio is a bit surprising, although his performance has been controversial all season. Colman Domingo getting in is also a bit surprising, as the film had no real support and his performance also wasn't that great.
Best Actress
- Annette Bening - Nyad
- Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
- Carey Mulligan - Maestro
- Emma Stone - Poor Things
Who Should Win: I really loved Emma Stone's work in Poor Things. A funny, strange, nuanced portrayal that would likely be running away with every award had she not just won a few years ago.
Who Will Win: I suspect Lily Gladstone will be the way they reward Killers of the Flower Moon, and that's a great choice. It would be a historic win, and I can't see anyone not loving her. That said, I think Poor Things overperformed in nominations, and Killers feels like yet another Scorsese film that voters are a little less than excited about. An interesting thing to note: two other Scorsese films got 10 nominations and won none (Gangs of New York and The Irishman). Gladstone is the only likely win for the film, so if voters are as cool on this film as those other two, she may end up being a surprise loss at the ceremony in favor of Emma Stone.
Surprises: I genuinely did not think Bening had any shot here. It's not an especially interesting performance, and on top of that, like with Bradley Cooper, why keep nominating her if you know she has no shot at winning?
Best Supporting Actor
- Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction
- Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling - Barbie
- Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
Who Should Win: Easily Ryan Gosling. I loved that performance so much, and he seemed so thoroughly committed to her performance. There was no winking or nudging, he just fully embraced his inner-Ken.
Who Will Win: The narrative all season has been about how it's finally Robert Downey Jr's time. After a decade-plus stuck with Marvel, he finally got to shine again. I thought his performance was... fine? He was not in my top five supporting performances in Oppenheimer, let alone the film year in general. But I would love to see him win an Oscar, so I'm not too broken up at the idea of him steamrolling.
Surprises: Mark Ruffalo seemed like a lock all season until he missed at SAG in favor of his costar Willem Dafoe. Ruffalo is the more interesting performance of the two, but I was very worried there when it seemed like Dafoe might be the one to get in (love him though I do). And Sterling K. Brown also seemed like a SAG nominee that got in because a lot of voters were TV actors, but I had a feeling that if they liked American Fiction as much as it seemed they would that he would get in. He has the kind of performance that gets nominated, and he is incredibly likable in general.
Best Supporting Actress
- Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
- America Ferrera - Barbie
- Jodie Foster - Nyad
- Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
Who Should Win: Randolph pretty easily. This has been a weird, thin category all year and she simply just towered over it all season.
Who Will Win: Randolph again. The most lockiest of locks of the night. I suppose Blunt could have a shot if they really want to go crazy for Oppenheimer. Brooks seemed like a threat for a while, but her film failing to get any nominations besides her is frankly stunning.
Surprises: Ferrera was someone I thought could show up here back in early fall, but it didn't seem t be going that way until this morning. I guess that monologue really impressed a lot of voters!
I think we're in for a fairly predictable Oscar night this year, but this has been a largely great lineup of films. But voters do have a very long time to think and rethink who they want to vote for, so surprises could always happen.
Nomination Tally
Oppenheimer - 13
Poor Things - 11
Killers of the Flower Moon - 10
Barbie - 8
Maestro - 7
American Fiction - 5
The Zone of Interest - 5
Anatomy of a Fall - 5
The Holdovers - 5
Napoleon - 3
Society of the Snow - 2
Past Lives - 2
Nyad - 2
The Creator - 2
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One - 2
