Well good morning! We're a little later in the year this time around, but it's time for another year of Oscar nominations.
- I don't know if it was the delay in nominations by two months, the reduced number of "Oscar" films because of the pandemic, or just better taste, but this year they really spread the wealth around. Aside from Mank, every other major films seems to be in the 4-6 nominations range
- Diversity! We have two female Directors nominated! Both Actor races are majority non-white. It feels like most of the winners will also be non-white. Again, I worry this has more to do with the fact that "traditional" Oscar movies fled the year, resulting in more diverse movies being the only option. We'll see if next year things stay like this or go back to more typical Oscar boxes being checked off.
- Mank is this year's The Irishman - 10 nominations, no real shot at winning anything of note. Netflix has really cornered the market on technically ambitious films with no real passionate support (I love both films, neither would be in my Best Picture race for either year).
- It's also funny to note that, when we all thought that the only major movies this year would be Netflix films given theaters were closed, there are only 2 Netflix films nominated for Picture. At what point does Netflix abandon the Oscar chase in favor of just making populist moves that driver subscriptions?
- Which reminds me: Where oh where is Da 5 Bloods? One of the best films of the year, with the best performance (Delroy Lindo) was almost completely snubbed, aside from a Score nomination. Really feels like a huge missed opportunity this year.
- Chloe Zhao is a 4-time nominee this year alone. While not quite a record, it is a feat very rare (Warren Beatty did it twice). Quite impressive for an indie darling!
- Things that made me happiest: Paul Raci! Lakeith Stanfield (in... Supporting?)! Promising Young Woman and especially Sound of Metal overperforming! Thomas Vinterberg! Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross: double nominees! The entire Best Picture lineup!
- The Father
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Mank
- Minari
- Nomadland
- Promising Young Woman
- Sound of Metal
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who Should Win: I would love Sound of Metal or Promising Young Woman, but honestly, every film here is very good to great. This might be on the of the best Best Picture lineups I've ever seen.
Who Will Win: Nomadland seems to be locked up. Will this be the first obvious Best Picture winner since Birdman? The Trial of the Chicago 7 has the more broad appeal, and feels like the kind of thing that would win 10 years ago. But Sorkin missing in Director might mean it's a little weaker than thought.
Surprises: None of the films nominated seem surprising, although The Father and Sound of Metal felt like they could have gone either way before today. The big snubs are certainly One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, both of which felt like they were on the cusp of big hauls only a week ago.
Best Director
- Lee Isaac Chung - Minari
- Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman
- David Fincher - Mank
- Thomas Vinterberg - Another Round
- Chloe Zhao - Nomadland
Who Should Win: This one is pretty handily Fennell for me.
Who Will Win: Chloe Zhao has apparently won more Directing precursor awards than any other director in history. We will finally be getting our second female director winner, 11 years after the first one.
Surprises: I started seeing a few people wild card guess Vinterberg would get this just in the last few days, but he really is a surprise here. Good for him! He has been making strong films for a quarter century now, and it's good to see him rewarded here for that. Also, this combined with Pawel Pawlikowski two years ago and you have a clear trend of the Director branch really looking outside of America (and the Best Picture lineup) for worthy nominees. I really like this trend, it reminds me of the 60's and 70's when you'd regularly see people like Fellini or Wertmuller show up in the category.
Best Actor
- Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
- Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Anthony Hopkins - The Father
- Gary Oldman - Mank
- Steven Yuen - Minari
Who Should Win: This would be between Ahmed and Hopkins for me. Ahmed felt like he was leveling up in a big way, while Hopkins gave perhaps the most impactful performance of his long career. I think I'd give the edge to Ahmed, but both are fantastic.
Who Will Win: Boseman has this sewn up. I don't know if he would have steamrolled had he not passed away this year (it's rare for a Best Actor winner to come from a non-Best Picture film, the last one to do it was Jeff Bridges in 2009 for Crazy Heart), but people clearly want to reward him while they still can. It's a shame he won't get more opportunities to win, so this will have to be the one they reward him for.
Surprises: I mentioned above the shame of not recognizing Delroy Lindo, and his loss likely came as a result of Steven Yuen making it in. The first Asian actor to be nominated in this category, he has been firing on all cylinders for a while now so it is nice to see him recognized finally. I also wonder if Gary Oldman might have been a bubble nominee. A few more weeks and he might have slipped back out in favor or Lindo or even Mads Mikklesen.
Best Actress
- Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday
- Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
- Frances McDormand - Nomadland
- Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman
Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan pretty easily for me. I run hot and cold on her, but this was a career-best performance and I'd love to see her recognized for it.
Who Will Win: This could be a tough one to call! People keep saying Mulligan probably has this one on lock, but I don't know that that's true. For starters, this kind of performance does not normally win in a regular year. The only reason we are discounting McDormand is because she just won a second Oscar a few years ago, so even though she's in the Best Picture frontrunner people think she won't win again. I disagree, I think she's very much in the hunt for another win here. The other big, big spoiler could be Andra Day. Her film might not be widely enough seen, but they love biopic performances, and this is a very good performance in an otherwise bad film, so she shines all the more.
Surprises: This category was a little thin all year, so there wasn't really an obvious sixth place. Kirby really felt like she was on the bubble given how difficult her film is, but with no one nipping at her heels she was able to squeak by.
Best Supporting Actor
- Sacha Baron Cohen - Trial of the Chicago 7
- Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
- Leslie Odom Jr - One Night in Miami...
- Paul Raci - Sound of Metal
- Lakeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah
Who Should Win: Very difficult! I love both Raci and Kaluuya here. For me they are competing in different years (Judas is a 2021 film in my books), so not sure who to pick. I suppose Raci by a hair, but either would delight me.
Who Will Win: Kaluuya has been winning a lot for this role, so he seems likely. The only thing that might hold him back is he is suddenly facing internal competition from Stanfield, so he might split votes. If that happens, I think Cohen could surprise us here. They clearly like the film, and they like him (see all the Borat love, including another nomination for Cohen in Screenplay). If there is a real upset anywhere on Oscar night, it could be this category.
Surprises: I have a theory on what happened here with Stanfield. They clearly liked him in the film and wanted to nominate him. The role he plays is typically shunted off to Supporting while Kaluuya's role would usually be Lead (see The Assassination of Jesse James, for example). Enough people considered him Supporting and Kaluuya Lead that he got in here, but enough other people considered Kaluuya Supprting based on the campaign and so both got in independent of each other. I really think people who voted for one didn't vote for the other, which really makes me question the frontrunner status for Kaluuya here.
Best Supporting Actress
- Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
- Olivia Colman - The Father
- Amanda Seyfried - Mank
- Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Who Should Win: I loved Seyfried in Mank, so she'd get my vote, but Youn is a very close second. I wasn't hot on Minari as a whole, but I really loved what she was doing in the film.
Who Will Win: Who even knows anymore. This category has been such a strange one all year with no clear leader at all. I can see any of the five winning right now. For now I'll guess it's Youn since they loved Minari. It's a shame Close will again be ignored for an eighth time, but if she wins for Mamaw that would be such a sour note to end her Oscar run on. It could certainly happen though.
Surprises: I was not at all certain that Bakalova would get in for this performance. That she did makes me think she could be a threat to win, as weird as that would feel.
So we're set for a very late Telecast this year (end of April!), and anything could happen between now and then. Voters will have had so much time to think and rethink their choices that a few surprises could occur. Whatever happens, I'm largely very happy with the nominations today and can't wait for the final results to be in.
Nomination Tally
Mank - 10
The Father - 6
Nomadland - 6
Sound of Metal - 6
Judas and the Black Messiah - 6
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - 6
Minari - 6
Promising Young Woman - 5
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - 5
News of the World - 4
One Night in Miami - 3
Soul - 3
Another Round - 2
Tenet - 2
Hillbilly Elegy - 2
Pinocchio - 2
Mulan - 2
Emma - 2
Collective -2
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - 2
