Another Oscar Season in the Book

The most unpredictable Oscar season in memory came to a close with a disappointing final winner and an overall boring show. Like last year I went 17 for 24 on my predictions, so pretty much an average year there. Green Book did indeed win the big prize, and it seems many are none too happy about that. Personally I think it is one of the weakest films of the decade to win, although I didn't out right hate it like some others. That said, we've had a string of all time classics win this recently (5 films this decade that won would have been in my personal top five of their given year), so this win feels like it is especially regressive. That said, in retrospect I'm glad Roma didn't win as I think that would be too much weight to put on such a small movie that it probably couldn't sustain in the general public in the future.

You know the evening is going poorly when I'm starting to route for Green Book to win over what was the apparent steamroller, Bohemian Rhapsody. The worst film to be nominated for Best Picture in more than a decade at least, Rhapsody swept every category it was nominated for going into the final award. I was honestly worried that, given what a mess this whole year has been for the Academy, that they might go all in on this terrible choice. Thankfully, a smarter choice (relatively) prevailed. I think had Rhapsody not been so close, I might be more upset by Green Book winning this.

The big shock of the night has to be Olivia Colman winning over Glenn Close. Wow, what a moment! I feel bad for Close, a legend who should have two Oscars already, and she clearly knew she was the prohibitive favorite this year. So she must have been double crushed to lose yet again (although I'm sure Amy Adams is glad she doesn't have to inherit the title of most nominations without a win just yet). But Colman's complete shock and delight at winning was such an all time moment. She was crying, laughing, lost her train of thought, and even called out Glenn Close as being the person she thought should have won. It was such a prefect moment on what turned out to be an otherwise lifeless night.

So yeah, that show. It was... fine? Not memorable in any way, not a disaster either. It started off on such a bad note with that Queen performance. Clearly 10% of the audience loved it and the rest were somewhere between bored and visibly bothered that the Academy was signaling out one specific nominated film so prominently at the start of the show. The producer of the show said that if a show is just "award, award, commercial, award," that it will be supremely boring, but then she never found a way to break that up and it proved to be boring. If the Academy wants to continue without a host in the future, which some people suggest they should consider, then they need to find a better format for the show. Maybe put in at least one montage somewhere. Don't make the person presenting Best Picture have to close out the show (Julia Roberts: "Apparently that is the end of the show, good night everyone.") Maybe spend a bit more time on each category showcasing the element you're awarding (this used to be a basic component of the show, showing us the actual sound in sound mixing or the screenplay pages for Original Screenplay). In other words, this show needed more flourishes to break up the monotony.

Random Thoughts:

• After missing it last year, I was back on my game again with the shorts: I got all three right, something I did two years in a row recently, no small feat.
• Loved Tyler Perry making a comment about how it was stupid to consider presenting any awards during the commercials. Good for him!
• Although, Best Makeup. Yikes. I don't know what those three were thinking when they came up the podium, but that was perhaps the worst speech I've ever seen. Disjointed, confused, a list of names. Not a good look and certainly more fuel for the John Bailey's in the world to cut this award in the future.
• But then there is something like the winner for Production Design. She gave such a beautiful, heartfelt speech that reminded us that the craft categories can provide as many great moments as any other category.
• Loved Spike Lee in every moment he was on screen. And him winning finally (and being announced by Samuel L. Jackson no less) was a great moment. Glad he finally has an Oscar.
• So, Cuaron makes it five years this decade in which a Mexican won Best Director. What an amazing string of wins and a clear indicator that other cultures are outpacing us creatively lately.
• Best presenters: Melissa McCarthy and her rabbits, Awkwafina and her excitement (she may be back next year if The Farewell does well), and Amy, Tina, Maya just having fun knowing they don't have to host the whole show. 
• Mahershala Ali seemed genuinely ambivalent about winning a second Oscar for this performance. He seemed so conflicted about the whole experience of Green Book, which is a shame for him. 

Here's hoping we see a big change in Academy governorship this year. I think a lot needs to be fixed about how the Oscars operate right now and going forward. They may have stumbled onto a way to shorten the show without a host, but they need to really rethink how the show works if that's the case (but don't mess with the actual awards or the speeches!). This whole Oscar season felt like a struggle and not a celebration, which was such a shame. I really hope the Academy figures out this identity crisis soon.

Final Oscar Predictions 2019

What has been a tumultuous year for the Academy is finally coming to an end, with what will quite possibly be the worst Oscar ceremony in my lifetime, if not ever. Mismanaged at every turn, this year's ceremony looks to be a bore at best, a disaster at worst. The Academy has made so many bad choices this year, only to be shamed out of every one. A Popular Film Category was floated and then revoked. Last year's winners were told they couldn't present this year, then they were invited after all (although they still aren't presenting the categories they normally would). The Song nominees were told only two songs would be performed until Lady Gaga put her foot down and said all five must be there. Kevin Hart was chosen as the host, only to step down a day later amid controversy, with no replacement ever selected because no one wants to be associated with this yea'rs show. And the worst decision of all, to not show all categories live, was finally walked back a week before the ceremony. I can only surmise that John Bailey now hopes this ceremony is a mess and a ratings failure simply so he can save face and say that if he'd been allowed to follow his whims that this disaster of a show wouldn't have happened. What a mess. Hopefully at least some joy will come from some surprises in the winners this year, as a lot of categories seem confusing just days before the show.

Best Picture

• BlacKkKlansman
• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• The Favourite
• Green Book
• Roma
• A Star Is Born
• Vice

I worry I'm overthinking this like I did last year. Shape of Water was the obvious choice for a lot of reasons, but I convinced myself that it didn't seem Oscary enough to win, so I ignored it. Roma is the obvious choice here right now: it is sure to win a number of awards, including Director. It overperformed in the nominations, getting unexpected acting noms. It seems to be widely liked by a lot of people, so it will end up high on most ballots regardless of what their favorite is. But it's a foreign film and one of those has never won Best Picture before. That's a stat destined to fall some year, but this year? Not sure.

Especially with two more conventional choices at play: BlacKkKlansman and Green Book. Klansman would make sense in a Departed style victory: beloved director finally getting his due in a year where no consensus ever took shape. But it hasn't won much all season, always the runner-up to other films. Which leaves the very traditional, crowd pleasing Green Book. Perhaps we are overdue for a middle of the road crowd-pleaser winning. The King's Speech was the last time the Academy truly went populist, and populist has often been their favorite thing to be. It's especially odd that Green Book has become their populist choice when A Star Is Born is a genuine blockbuster with real artistic cred behind it. Seems like a slam dunk for an Oscar sweep, and yet it lost all its momentum somehow. I'll never understand that one, especially in a year with the dreaded Popular Film Oscar almost happening. So I'm going to follow my gut here and go with the "obvious" choice, but I can't help but feel like they will be going populist this year of the "Popular Film Oscar" debacle.

Will Win: Roma

Runner-Up: Green Book

If I Had A Ballot: Roma, although BlacKkKlansman would also be great.

Best Director

• Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
• Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
• Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
• Adam McKay - Vice
• Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War

Alfonso Cuaron seem poised to win his second Director trophy. If he does, that will mean at least 5 of the Best Director winners this decade went to Mexican filmmakers. That is a fascinating fact in the face of our political climate this decade. It's also a recognition of the fact that our best filmmakers are increasingly coming from other countries, as seen by 3 of the 5 nominees this year. If anyone has a shot at surprising, though, it's Spike Lee. The narrative is there: working for over 30 years, revered director, man behind one of the most notoriously snubbed films in Oscar history. The amount of goodwill he has going for him, coupled with the fact that his film is a great one, means he has a real shot at surprising us on Oscar night. I wouldn't count him out.

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron 

Runner-Up: Spike Lee

If I Had A Ballot: Based on the work, Cuaron. But if this is Lee's one shot at a Directing Oscar I might be inclined to vote for him. 

Best Actor

• Christian Bale - Vice
• Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
• Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
• Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
• Viggo Mortensen - Green Book

What the hell happened here? Cooper gives easily the best performance in this category, and it felt like he was running away with this. And then the precursors started and he got completely left behind. Suddenly Rami Malek is in the lead for a very bad impression of Freddie Mercury, and I can't figure out why. Is it because people are impressed he was able to pull this off in the face of the on-set turmoil he had to deal with? Whatever it is, he now seems like he is in the driver's seat, with only Christian Bale challenging him. If Bale didn't have an Oscar already, this might have been his to lose. But that coupled with the fact he's playing someone people hate, means he might have to wait a bit longer for another Oscar win. So Rami Malek, I hope this leads to better and more interesting performances down the road, because somehow you've wrapped this one up.

Will Win: Rami Malek 

Runner-Up: Christian Bale 

If I Had A Ballot: Bradley Cooper 

Best Acress

• Yalitza Aparicio - Roma
• Glenn Close - The Wife
• Olivia Colman - The Favourite
• Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
• Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Perhaps the category with the deepest bench of great work this year, it's kind of puzzling that it's been so easily whittled down to Glenn Close. I love Close, and she should easily have a few wins by now, but to reward her for The Wife, especially in a year this good, feels so strange. But the narrative is there, and unless Colman can surprise, this is Close's to lose. The only real thing working in Colman's favor is that her film is clearly loved and got the most nominations of any film this year, whereas Close is the only nomination for her film. That doesn't always matter when they just want to give it to someone (Julianne Moore), so it may just come down to Glenn Close needs to be an Oscar winner already.

Will Win: Glenn Close 

Runner-Up: Olivia Colman 

If I Had A Ballot: Lady Gaga. Color me surprised, but she was legitimately my favorite of these five by a wide margin. 

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali - Green Book
• Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
• Sam Elliott - A Star Is Born
• Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Sam Rockwell - Vice

Another odd category, although a little less so than the previous two. Mahershala Ali is out in front for a very good performance in a Best Picture front runner. But he just won this category two years ago, can he really win this again? If he were a major star I could see it more easily (think Tom Hanks or Jodie Foster getting a quick second win), but if he wins here I think it’ll be more akin to Christoph Waltz winning two too quickly and becoming a cautionary tale of too much too soon. But his only real competition seems to be Richard E. Grant, who isn’t in a Best Picture nominee and isn’t as well known right now as Ali is. But he has been working the campaign like no other actor here. Can that make the difference? I’m crossing my fingers, but the fact that Grant, a beloved actor in Britain, couldn’t beat Ali at the BAFTAs makes me think this is still Ali’s to lose, as much as I’m inclined to go on a limb for Grant.

Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Runner-Up: Richard E. Grant 

If I Had A Ballot: Grant

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams - Vice
• Marina de Tavira - Roma
• Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
• Emma Stone - The Favourite
• Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

I don’t remember the last time an acting category was this up in the air. I think only one of these women has no shot: Emma Stone. She just won in 2016 and her Favourite costars have been winning all the precursor attention. So as good as she may be in the film, she’s out. Beyond that, all four women have a potential path to winning. Marina de Tavira is probably unlikely, but she hasn’t been in any precursors so she is a total unknown against these women. If she was good enough to make the final five, and if Roma is possibly winning Best Picture, maybe she goes all the way? And Rachel Weisz has been winning a fair share of awards for this film, including the BAFTA, but can vote splitting with Emma Stone in such a tight category be the difference between her and someone else? Amy Adams makes sense in that if she loses she will almost certainly become the living actor with most nominations with no win (at least, Glenn Close is hoping so). But this is perhaps the least interesting performance she’s been nominated for, and no one really seems to want her to win for this particular film. And then there’s Regina King. Her film didn’t light the Academy on fire, and it’s a small and not too showy role, but she is beloved and is an award magnet for her TV work. On paper, she makes sense here. But this category has not made sense all season and I wonder why it suddenly would now. Regina is my guess, but I have no confidence on this. I want to say Marina can pull this off in a shocker, but with no evidence to back that up I’ll stick with my brain over my gut.

Will Win: Regina King

Runner-Up: Marina de Tavira

If I Had A Ballot: Marina de Tavira

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• BlacKkKlansman
• Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• A Star Is Born

This is looking pretty likely to be Spike Lee's Oscar moment. It's a shame he won't get a Directing Oscar, but a win is a win. BlacKkKlansman doesn't have a lot of places it's likely to have good odds of winning, so its fans will likely put all their strength behind this category. It helps that there isn't much of a challenger here. A Star is Born may be the only real competition, and if Bradley Cooper can't win for his other two bids this year, this could be a galvanizing point for his fans too. But the film isn't thought of as much as a writing accomplishment as it is for other things, so I doubt people will rally for it here.

Will Win: BlacKkKlansman

Runner-Up: A Star Is Born

If I Had A Ballot: A Star Is Born

Best Original Screenplay

• The Favourite
• First Reformed
• Green Book
• Roma
• Vice

This is the turning point in the night. If Green Book loses, then it is likely out for Best Picture. If it wins, watch out. Its only competition is The Favourite, but competition is fierce. Voters would only be voting for Green Book here because they like it as a film, not as a writing achievement, whereas The Favourite is a very strong writing accomplishment. I'm feeling very pessimistic about the Academy this year, so I think they go for Green Book in a show that they really want it to win Best Picture.

Will Win: Green Book

Runner-Up: The Favourite

If I Had A Ballot: First Reformed

Best Cinematography

• Cold War
• The Favourite
• Never Look Away
• Roma
• A Star Is Born

One of the awards originally selected to not to be shown during the ceremony, it was the cinematographers who apparently finally proved to be too much for the Academy to ignore. That's great, because Alfonso Cuaron will be making history as the first Director to win for being his own DP. If Curaon has any competition, it's from fellow foreign film Cold War for its striking, stark imagery. Both are beautiful achievements, so it's great that we will actually get to see them both presented on the show.

Will Win: Roma

Runner-Up: Cold War

If I Had A Ballot: Roma

Best Costumes

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Black Panther
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots

This is a category where we get to see just how much the Academy's votership has changed these last few years. The Favourite is the classic, stunning option that we've seen them go with year after year. But Black Panther represents something new and different. Can the Academy be trusted to realize that? I'm not so sure. It's not like The Favourite is undeserving, but it just feels so familiar at this point. It would be doubly cool to see Black Panther win as that gives Ruth Carter her first Oscar, who was previously nominated for Spike Lee's Malcolm X years ago. That kind of symmetry would be a cool moment, but a seemingly unlikely one.

Will Win: The Favourite

Runner-Up: Black Panther

If I Had A Ballot: Black Panther

Best Editing

• BlacKkKlansman
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• The Favourite
• Green Book
• Vice

Conventional wisdom right now says Vice is taking this for having the most editing. But Bohemian Rhapsody has been doing well for itself so far on the back of the narrative that someone actually made a movie out of the behind the scenes mess of that production. Green Book is a Best Picture favorite, so those always have a leg up here. And BlacKkKlansman actually uses its editing for thematic and narrative payoffs (the crosscutting between a Klan meeting and a black student union meeting is deftly done). Ultimately, recent years have shown that voters like it when they notice the editing, so Vice may indeed take it here.

Will Win: Vice

Runner-Up: BlacKkKlansman

If I Had A Ballot: BlacKkKlansman

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Border
• Mary Queen of Scots 
• Vice

Border has the most makeup, so it has that going for it, but the way they transformed Christian Bale into Cheney is impressive, not unlike last year's winner Darkest Hour. Vice proved to be quite the benefactor of the Academy walking back their decision not to show some categories on air, as both its wins were likely to be held off air. Hopefully the Vice team has thought a lot about their speeches so they don't prove Bailey right in his belief these categories should be edited down.

Will Win: Vice

Runner-up: Border

If I Had A Ballot: Vice

Best Score

• BlacKkKlansman
• Black Panther
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Isle of Dogs
• Mary Poppins Returns

The toughest category of the night? Maybe. I can honestly picture any of these films winning. If I had to guess, it comes down to Beale Street and Black Panther, both exceptional options. I can't help but think that so many people will have seen Black Panther that this is the one place it has a shot at winning. People will probably recall the music in that film easily from having seen it so many times, whereas the other films probably take a moment to recall the music for. But really, I can see any film winning this, I'm grasping at straws here.

Will Win: Black Panther

Runner-Up: If Beale Street Could Talk

If I Had A Ballot: Beale Street. Simply beautiful, perfectly attuned music.

Best Original Song

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs - "When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" 
• Black Panther - "All The Stars" 
• Mary Poppins Returns - "The Place Where Lost Things Go" 
• RBG - "I'll Fight" 
• A Star Is Born - "Shallow"

Surely A Star Is Born can at least win here, right? It's a massive hit song, by a beloved singer who is nominated in Acting as well. It checks off all the boxes they need. But can Black Panther pull off an upset? It's also a huge hit song, and sometimes they like to throw a curveball in this category. They would have to really not like A Star Is Born to shun it here, but maybe that's where we are with this film at this point.

Will Win: A Star Is Born

Runner-Up: Black Panther

If I Had A Ballot: A Star Is Born

Best Production Design

• Black Panther
• The Favourite
• First Man
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Roma

Consensus seems to be The Favourite here and I simply don't get that. I'd argue it's the least impressive of these five films. I think Black Panther, which created a whole country we'd never seen before, is far more appealing than another period costume drama. And don't get me started on how detailed and incredible the production design is for Roma, which built a whole city street, in addition to the central home set. The Favourite may end up winning this in a default choice, but I just think better options will prevail this time.

Will Win: Black Panther
Runner-Up: The Favourite
If I Had A Ballot: Roma

Best Sound Mixing

• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Man
• Roma
• A Star Is Born

The fact that Roma has to be seen with the best sound system available in order to understand why it's amazing kind of puts it out of the running, in spite of it being the best sound mix of the group. So, when in doubt, go with the musical. This time there are two of them, so which one did they like better? I suspect Bohemian Rhapsody gets it here, but A Star Is Born might have a shot. And if by some miracle they don't go the musical route, then First Man would deservedly get it here. But when a musical is available as a choice, they almost never ignore it.

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Runner-Up: A Star Is Born

If I Had A Ballot: Roma


Best Sound Editing

• Black Panther 
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Man
• Roma 
• A Quiet Place

It's often a bad call to guess a split between the two sound categories, so does that mean Bohemian Rhapsody wins both? Maybe. But I have a feeling they recognize First Man here if nowhere else. The sound effects are incredible and hard to ignore, especially when one actually watches SFX reels for it and Bohemian Rhapsody back to back.

Will Win: First Man
Runner-Up: Bohemian Rhapsody
If I Had A Ballot: First Man

Best Visual FX

• Avengers: Infinity War
• Christopher Robin
• First Man
• Ready Player One
• Solo: A Star Wars Story

Tough one! Usually, if a Best Picture is included it will win (they like their FX classy). First Man was close to a nomination for Picture, but it did miss out, so perhaps it won't do well here. I suspect Avengers will take this for the impressive work they did to create Thanos, but a small part of me wants to go out on a limb for Christopher Robin. The character work in that film was stunning and seamless, and as we saw with Ex Machina a few years back, sometimes the biggest film isn't always the winner here.

Will Win: Avengers
Runner-Up: Christopher Robin
If I Had A Ballot: Christopher Robin

Best Animated Feature

• Incredibles 2
• Isle of Dogs
• Mirai
• Ralph Breaks the Internet
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

The fact is that no Pixar film has lost this category, if nominated, since Cars in 2006. So betting against Incredibles 2 seems foolish. But it's also true that only Brave had any real competition for the award, the other Pixar films having a very clear path to winning. Incredibles has Spider-Man, a vibrant, potentially industry changing film to compete with. In addition, no sequel has won this category when a previous entry also won. And while Incredibles 2 was one of the biggest hits in history, it doesn't seem to have caught the zeitgeist like other Pixar films. At some point, with the diminishing returns creatively we've seen from Pixar, the Academy will part ways with the company like they always do with any franchise they once loved. Perhaps this year is the start of that swing. Also, I suspect Wes Anderson will win his only Oscar one day for an Animated film, he just needs to time it right. Early in the year I thought this would be his shot, but I guess he will have to just keep trying.

Will Win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: Incredibles 2
If I Had A Ballot: Spider-Man

Best Foreign Film

• Capernaum
• Cold War
• Never Look Away
• Roma
• Shoplifters

This would seem obvious, right? Roma is the most nominated film of the year, it's up for Best Picture, everyone loves it. But this category has a way of surprising people. It's unlikely people will vote here if they haven't seen most or all of the films, so that means the other films have a better shot as they've actually been seen. Think Amelie or Pan's Labyrinth losing even though they were huge breakout hits in other categories. I think Cold War has a really good shot here because of this. It's a very classy film, also clearly loved in many categories. And perhaps if people are voting for Roma in other categories or even Best Picture, they might feel like they should vote for something else here. Ultimately, I can't bring myself to bet against the film that may be winning Best Picture, but I really think Cold War could take this one in what would be considered they biggest shocker of the night.

Will Win: Roma
Runner-Up: Cold War
If I Had A Ballot: Abstain: I only saw Roma and Cold War.


Best Documentary Feature

• Free Solo
• Hale County This Morning, This Evening
• Minding The Gap
• Of Fathers And Sons
• RBG

I simply can't go with the crowd here. It seems that Free Solo and RBG are the two likely picks by prognosticators, because those films are the most widely seen. But that didn't help Won't You Be My Neighbor get a nomination here, so I doubt it matters. All I ever hear is how much people who see Minding the Gap love it, something I never hear about RBG. I think that if it is seen by enough people who actually vote in this category, Minding the Gap has a pretty good shot at this. Passion can sometimes count for a lot.

Will Win: Minding the Gap
Runner-Up: Free Solo
If I Had A Ballot: Abstain: Only saw Minding the Gap

And in the shorts I have Bao (Animated), Period. End of Sentence (Documentary), and Skin (Live Action).

This really is shaping up to be a bad year for the Oscars, in large part due to the Academy's own many missteps. It'll be interesting to see, with so many public outcries against them, if they move to vote out most of the current regime that governs the Academy. Some real, serious changes need to be made. Hopefully the winners will still be enjoyable, because little else this year is shaping up to be a good time.

And the Nominees Are... 2019

Good morning! It's another year of Oscar nominations, let's see what they came up with in this especially polarizing year for the Academy.

• Ok, after two failed years of those pre-programmed morning announcements, they finally got it right again with an all live announcement. Kumail Nanjiani and Tracee Ellis Ross had wonderful banter and nailed the nominations reading. Can we get these tow to host the Oscars if no on else wants the job?
• Two foreign films nominated for Best Director! Is that a record? The only other time it may have happened was in the 70's when all the Academy's favorite foreign filmmakers were working.
• Not to mention, 3 of the 5 Cinematography nominees are foreign films as well. Clearly foreign films were popular this year.
• Black Panther made it in after all. I was truly worried for a minute that they'd screw that up and we'd have to hear more about the Popular Film Oscar next year, but luckily they got that right.
• Funny that a film that got 8 nominations can feel like it was forgotten, but A Star Is Born missing director and editing feels like it's done before it ever got started. That director branch really doesn't like actors who direct, do they?
• Any doubt that the Academy wouldn't embrace Netflix can be erased now. In addition to Roma leading the nominations with 10, Buster Scruggs got 3 nominations, none of which seemed likely.
• Jason Blum is quietly becoming an Oscar powerhouse, in addition to everything else he does well. This is his third Oscar nomination in five years.
• Most exciting nominations this year: Spike Lee finally getting Director, Paul Schrader's first nomination, 80% of that Score category, everything about Roma.

Best Picture

• BlacKkKlansman
• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• The Favourite
• Green Book
• Roma
• A Star Is Born
• Vice

Which Ones I've Seen: All eight films.


Who Should Win: Easily Roma. It's my favorite film of the year, and I haven't had that happen since 2014.

Who Will Win: Man, just when I thought this year was going to be easy to predict! A Star Is Born seemed like a sure thing for so long, but it missed too many key categories to be considered a front runner anymore. Green Book was coming on strong, but not getting a Director nomination gives me pause here, and it's feeling more and more like Three Billboards did last year. I really doubted Roma had a chance at winning this because it's foreign and it's Netflix, but it got a number of nominations that few thought likely. So maybe the love for it really is that strong.


Surprises: Not really, this was the exact lineup I was predicting. The only "surprise" is that they supported Bohemian Rhapsody as much as they did.

Best Director

• Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
• Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite 
• Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
• Adam McKay - Vice
• Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War

Which Ones I've Seen: Luckily I caught Cold War, so all of them.


Who Should Win: Cuaron is my pick here, but I'd also be incredibly happy to see Spike Lee take this. This is probably the closest he'll come to winning this award, so maybe it's time to give it to him.


Who Will Win: Cuaron seems pretty locked up here. Again, Lee is the runner-up, but unless BlacKkKlansman is stronger than we expected he probably loses this and gets Screenplay.

Surprises: So many, take your pick! Bradley Cooper missing is a huge snub, a clear sign that the directors don't like actors encroaching on their territory. Peter Farrelly also seemed likely here, so his omission is a surprise. A lone Director nod for Cold War is surprising, as they had two more slots open in Picture and the Academy clearly liked the film in a few places.


Best Actor

• Christian Bale - Vice
• Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
• Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
• Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
• Viggo Mortensen - Green Book

Which Ones I've Seen: All but Dafoe. I really doubted that people would even see this movie, let alone think it was among the best work of the year, so I need to catch up on that.


Who Should Win: Cooper in a landslide. Again, having not seen Dafoe, the other actors here all gave almost laughably bad performances. And I really like all of them normally.


Who Will Win: I mean, maybe Cooper has enough goodwill after the Director snub to take this? He has somehow been missing out to Malek and Bale all season, so those are still likely bets. I'd say Bale may honestly be in the lead though. He seems like the kind of actor who should have two Oscars in his career, and the second win often comes within ten years of the first.


Surprises: No Ethan Hawke, who was a critics darling all season. I also thought for sure John David Washington would be here given the love for the film and the bad optics of nominating only a white actor for a movie that is so much a black narrative, but he missed it as well.


Best Actress

• Yalitza Aparicio - Roma
• Glenn Close - The Wife
• Olivia Coleman - The Favourite
• Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
• Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Which Ones I've Seen: The whole line-up


Who Should Win: Lady Gaga would be my choice. I was quite surprised how much I liked her work in that film.

Who Will Win: With A Star Is Born not securing the love I expected, I think this is down to Coleman and Close. I suspect this match-up clears up in the coming weeks, but right now it seems hazy. They loved The Favourite, so that seems like a better bet than Close for a film no one especially liked. But Julianne Moore is proof that doesn't matter when they just want you to get your Oscar already. So Close right now by a nose, but it's truly unclear.


Surprises: Not really. Aparicio was not a sure thing but I predicted the actors would want to get in on the Roma love somewhere. And poor Emily Blunt, she keeps coming close (twice this year!) and yet fails to get the nomination.


Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali - Green Book
• Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
• Sam Elliott - A Star Is Born
• Richard E. Grant- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Sam Rockwell - Vice

Which Ones I've Seen: All the nominees

Who Should Win: Of these five I'm a Grant guy. He is charming, funny, sad, and memorable in the role.


Who Will Win: It seems like Ali is on his way to another Oscar already. Whatever else people think about Green Book, he is the one aspect people seem like they can agree on.

Surprises: Sam Rockwell couldn't get arrested before, but now that he's in the club they welcome him in for a repeat nomination right away. I thought there were better supporting roles in Vice alone, so he is a bit of a head scratcher.

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams - Vice
• Marina de Tavira - Roma
• Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
• Emma Stone - The Favourite
• Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

Which Ones I've Seen: All five of them.

Who Should Win: I liked Stone and Weisz, but they are the leads of that film so voting for them seems wrong. I think de Tavira would be a great choice here.


Who Will Win: This one could be difficult. Regina King just seems like such an obvious choice here, but her role is so small and isn't as impactful as you'd expect from a winner. But she is an awards magnet so I think she still has the lead. But Amy Adams, had this been a more substantial role, surely would have steamrolled here. As it is, she has so little to do playing an unsympathetic character, that even if she does win, people may feel like they awarded her for the wrong performance after so many more worthy shots.


Surprises: This is what I love about nomination morning. There is always one nomination that no one saw coming, that had no precursor love. That was Marina de Tavira, who in retrospect seems like such an obvious choice, especially knowing the actors would want to nominate Roma somewhere and Aparicio being less than a sure thing.


So can Roma win this whole thing? Overall I'm fairly happy with these nominees in a lot of categories, and there are actually a few categories with no obvious winner yet, so that's extra exciting. Here's hoping that they somehow figure out how to make the awards ceremony not feel deflated by removing a third of the categories from the telecast.

Nomination Tally
Roma - 10
The Favourite - 10
A Star Is Born - 8
Vice - 8
Black Panther - 7
BlacKkKlansman - 6
Bohemian Rhapsody - 5
Green Book - 5
Mary Poppins Returns - 4
First Man - 4
If Beale Street Could Talk - 3
Cold War - 3
Can You Ever Forgive Me - 3
The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs - 3
Never Look Away - 2 
Mary Queen of Scots - 2 
Isle of Dogs - 2 
RBG - 2