Monday, February 27, 2017

Moonlight Glows at the Oscars

Well that was absolute madness. Even if that snafu hadn't happened and the correct winner was announced, it would have been the biggest surprise in Best Picture history. La La Land seemed like the surest of sure bets in a loooong time, so to see it win six and then lose to Moonlight was shocking. But of course, it had to happen in the most unpredictable way. I think the accidental anointment of La La Land and the eventual revoking of its status as such has to go down as one of the biggest moments in Oscar history, full stop. To screw up any award during the night would be unfortunate, but to mix up Best Picture, and to mix it up between these two films is just insane. Huge respect to Jordan Horowitz for the way he handled the moment when he realized the Oscar he was holding wasn't meant for him. I think the world of Oscar watchers are still processing this moment, and we may be for a long time to come.

But regardless of the mix-up, Moonlight winning has to signal a lot for future Oscar years. Picture and Director no longer feel tethered together, with only one film in five years winning both. The preferential ballot seems to be benefiting the film that is least disliked of the front runners. So a film like La La Land that has passionate fans but also a lot of detractors has less of a shot at winning than a generally well liked film like Moonlight that is going to end up at the number 2 spot on more ballots. And that 2012-2015 streak of unpredictable Best Picture categories? Well it remains alive and well, so much so that I don't think I'm going to feel comfortable calling a Best Picture front runner again for a long time.

Moonlight really is such a unique Best Picture. It's small, moderately artsy, and it's about people and themes we rarely (if ever) see in a Best Picture winner. While I really think it would have behooved the Academy to try and reward a crowd-pleaser again after years of ignoring them, I also can't deny that this was a bold statement. I worry that Moonlight won't be able to carry the heft of an award this big, that now people will watch it with the wrong expectations and it will be regarded poorly by casual viewers in the years to come. La La Land probably could have withstood that kind of scrutiny due to the size and scope of the film, but then maybe it was time to really go for something a little more daring this year.

Random Thoughts:
  • I went 12/24 this year, by far the worst I have ever done. Part of it was the lack of a La La Land sweep, but I also failed to get 2 of the 3 shorts right. That was my biggest disappointment after going 3 for 3 on them the previous two years.
  • Jimmy Kimmel was... fine. I like him in theory, but he felt so bland this year. The candy from the rafters, the Lion/Lion King bit, and especially the running Star Tours bit all fell flat for me. I did love the payoff on the actors on actors series throughout the night with him musing about the amazing performance of Matt Damon in We Bought a Zoo.
  • Nice to see them spread the wealth around this year among the three front runners. Kenneth Lonergan, Barry Jenkins, and Damien Chazelle were all able to walk away with Oscars. A nice change from two years ago when Innaritu, Linklater, and Anderson were up against each other in every category and Inarritu walked away with everything.
  • Speaking of Chazelle, he is officially the youngest Best Director ever, and the first person to win who is younger than me. That feels weird. Hopefully he can continue to make interesting, great films in the future, I'd love to think he is at the start of a long and strong career.
Like I said, I'm still processing how all this went down. I'm curious to see if next year can even hope to compete with the unpredictability that was this Oscar season. Hopefully it can match it without resorting to any big mix-ups.

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Final Oscar Predictions 2017


So we finally look to have a huge tally for our Best Picture winner after going years with three or four Oscar totals for our past few winners. Spotlight was a near all-time low with only two, so this year is going to feel quite shocking when La La Land walks away with double digit wins. Will it tie or even break the record? I'm not so sure. Outside of Best Picture, there are a few categories that are up in the air, but overall this should be a fairly straight forward year.

Best Picture
  • Arrival
  • Fences
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hidden Figures
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Manchester by the Sea
  • Moonlight
We had a good run, but the 2012-2015 streak had to come to an end eventually. This year, the winner is a sure bet, and I won't even pretend otherwise. La La Land tied the record for most nominations, and it will be in the running for tying the record for most wins as well. It's been a while since a truly populist film won Best Picture, so it's kind of nice to see it finally happen again (and with a genuinely entertaining film to boot!). Moonlight made it much farther than I ever expected it would, but now that it's here with 8 nominations and likely to win at least two of them, it's the only possible upset. If voters are feeling especially political then they may want to reward that film in this extremely political year.

Will Win: La La Land
Runner-Up: Moonlight
If I Had A Ballot: La La Land

Best Director
  • Damien Chazelle - La La Land
  • Mel Gibson - Hacksaw Ridge
  • Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
  • Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
  • Denis Villeneuve - Arrival
Splits have been fairly common this decade, with Director and Picture going to the same film only 50% of the time. Perhaps voters are more comfortable spreading the wealth around. I think Barry Jenkins has a surprisingly strong chance here, and if he does win I won't be completely surprised (although I'd be a bit surprised). Damien Chazelle is still our front runner. At 32 he will go down as the youngest person to ever win this Oscar. I think if La La Land weren't such a steamroller, or if it weren't such a technical marvel, then he might have been vulnerable, but in the end this will be Chazelle's to lose.

Will Win: Damien Chazelle
Runner-Up: Barry Jenkins
If I Had A Ballot: Chazelle

Best Actor
  • Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
  • Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
  • Ryan Gosling - La La Land
  • Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
  • Denzel Washington - Fences
One of the hard ones this year! Affleck has been winning all season, but there seem to be mitigating factors here that could be at play. Affleck is not a very likable person, and he has legal issues hanging over his head. That might factor into voters' choice here. Also, Affleck is very internal in his performance, while Denzel is incredibly showy. Denzel just won the SAG award, so he could potentially be on the upswing. Voters might like the idea of awarding 3 actors of color this year after last year's critical drubbing. But Denzel has 2 wins already, can he really win a third? Probably. And yet a part of me wants to call this for Gosling. The film is going to have a lot of momentum, and sometimes that can bring along surprise wins. Probably a long-shot, but maybe it happens.

Will Win: Denzel
Runner-Up: Affleck
If I Had A Ballot: Viggo

Best Actress
  • Isabelle Huppert - Elle
  • Ruth Negga - Loving
  • Natalie Portman - Jackie
  • Emma Stone - La La Land
  • Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins
When a film starts to sweep, it brings along the actors with it. Ryan Gosling may not benefit from it, but Emma Stone certainly will. She has become the face of the film, and for many she is the best part of the film. And really, she's great. There are a few possible upset situations though, so if we're overestimating La La love, they could play out. Meryl had that great Golden Globes speech that may have single-handedly gotten her the Oscar nomination. Could they want to see an encore speech and give her an Oscar here? And Huppert has been racking up wins all season, more than anyone else. She even won the Globe in a big surprise win. Her film may be too difficult to stomach, but if voters feel Emma is too young or early in her career, then Huppert is a good alternate option.

Will Win: Stone
Runner-Up: Huppert
If I Had A Ballot: Portman

Best Supporting Actor
  • Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
  • Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water
  • Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea
  • Dev Patel - Lion
  • Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals
All season I've had my doubts about Mahershala Ali winning the Oscar here. His role is so atypical when you think of Oscar winners. He has no real big moments, he is very subdued, and he radiates warmth. But he has a few things going for him this year: Moonlight is clearly beloved but has very few real shots at winning. And maybe biggest of all, Ali being a Muslim means that voters will be able to speak out in their own way against the current administration. So Ali may have this one locked up. If not, then Dev Patel could slide in. Lion has a passionate fan base, and Dev is clearly the lead of his film, which helps when slumming in Supporting. This would be the only real place Lion could win anything, and crazier things have happened.

Will Win: Ali
Runner-Up: Patel
If I Had A Ballot: Ali

Best Supporting Actress
  • Viola Davis - Fences
  • Naomie Harris - Moonlight
  • Nicole Kidman - Lion
  • Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures
  • Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea
Easiest acting win of the night? Surely there is no stopping Viola this time. She has been overlooked twice, including her surprise loss for The Help. Her performance is a towering one, and no one else really has any steam in this race to topple her. If someone were to have a chance it would be Michelle. She has 4 nominations now, so she has entered into overdue territory. She'll have to wait another year though as Viola's turn has finally come.

Will Win: Viola
Runner-Up: Michelle
If I Had A Ballot: Michelle

Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Arrival
  • Fences
  • Hidden Figures
  • Lion
  • Moonlight
This seems obvious on the face of it, but it's such a deep category with a lot of possibilities. Moonlight is finally not up against La La Land for something, and the screenplay is surely one of its major strengths, so it should be able to win here. But Hidden Figures seems to have started coming on strong right at the end of nomination voting. Could it be rising in estimation among voters in the weeks since they nominated it? Fences is the most writerly of the bunch, and the late August Wilson actually wrote the screenplay so they would feel good about rewarding him here. Arrival is surely the best example of adapting a source material. But Lion really tugs at the heartstrings like no other film here. Ultimately, I think Moonlight is the front-runner, and the fact that no one film seems to have a strong argument over any other means that the rest will split votes among each other. But this could be a surprise category.

Will Win: Moonlight
Runner-Up: Hidden Figures
If I Had A Ballot: Moonlight

Best Original Screenplay
  • 20th Century Women
  • Hell or High Water
  • La La Land
  • The Lobster
  • Manchester by the Sea
For a long time Manchester seemed certain here. But voters like to vote down ballot when they really love a film, so La La Land stands to benefit. It's a weird choice for screenplay, though, and if voters feel uncomfortable with letting it tie or beat the win record, this would be an easy place to let it miss. That said, looking at the recent history for Best Picture and Screenplay, only four films have won Best Picture and not a Screenplay award since 2000, and all but The Artist happened at the start of the decade. Splits here are increasingly rare.

Will Win: La La Land
Runner-Up: Manchester
If I Had A Ballot: 20th Century Women

Best Cinematography
  • Arrival
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Moonlight
  • Silence
This is where the down ballot voting will really start to take hold. La La Land is a beautiful film, so that makes it all the easier to vote for it here. I think if anyone could beat it it's Arrival. Not a traditional winner in this category, but it is a unique visual experience and it has very few places it can be rewarded in spite it clearly being a film they really liked.

Will Win: La La Land
Runner-Up: Arrival
If I Had A Ballot: La La Land

Best Costumes
  • Allied
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Jackie
  • La La Land
It's either going to be a non-stop sweep for La La Land, or voters are going to bring it back down to the ground on Oscar night and withhold a few seemingly obvious wins. Jackie may be a more traditional choice, as would Florence Foster Jenkins. And this is a category that seems to be indifferent to Best Picture winners. So if the sweep fails to take hold, then one of those two could benefit.

Will Win: La La Land
Runner-Up: Jackie
If I Had A Ballot: Jackie

Best Editing
  • Arrival
  • La La Land
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hell or High Water
  • Moonlight
Another easy win for La La Land. The editing is another major achievement in the film, so it should be no surprise to see Tom Cross win his second Oscar for a Chazelle film. If the voters mix up best with most, then maybe Hacksaw steps in here.

Will Win: La La Land
Runner-Up: Hacksaw
If I Had A Ballot: La La Land

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
  • A Man Called Ove
  • Star Trek Beyond
  • Suicide Squad
I was going to go with the surprise win here for Ove (the team was nominated just last year for another foreign film, so their work is liked in general), but looking at pictures from the film I'm just not seeing work that can stand out against more elaborate fare like Star Trek and Suicide Squad. Both films have a lot of unique makeup effects, so it's a bit of a toss-up. In situations like that, the more liked film probably has the better shot. I think voters will feel weird voting for a reviled film like Suicide Squad, so Star Trek wins this one. And if my original instinct on Ove plays out I'll be extra frustrated I changed it at the last second.

Will Win: Star Trek
Runner-Up: Ove
If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, only saw Star Trek.

Best Score
  • Jackie
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Moonlight
  • Passengers
Another easy win for La La Land. If it can't win for score then something has gone awry. Which is actually kind of a shame because there are a lot of really good options here this year. In another year any one of these films could have won. I suspect Lion will have the most support of the leftovers, but it simply won't be enough.

Will Win: La La Land
Runner-Up: Lion
If I Had A Ballot: Lion

Best Original Song
  • Jim: The James Foley Story - "The Empty Chair"
  • La La Land - "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)"
  • La La Land - "City of Stars"
  • Moana - "How Far I'll Go"
  • Trolls - "Can't Stop the Feeling"
Could there be an actual upset here? I think there are two factors really working against La La Land in the one category a musical should be able to win. First, the two songs nominated both have a lot of fans, which means vote splitting. "City of Stars" is considered the front-runner, and if voters simply want the movie to win and like both songs, they'll likely vote there. But if there is enough splitting, a third film is running close behind them. Moana has a great, popular song, and you know voters are aware that Lin-Manuel Miranda is one Oscar away from an EGOT. Watch out for the upset in this category, it could happen.

Will Win: "City of Stars"
Runner-Up: "How Far I'll Go"
If I Had A Ballot: "City of Stars"

Best Production Design
  • Arrival
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Hail, Caesar!
  • La La Land
  • Passengers
I'm going to say this is the place La La Land misses an expected win, thus thwarting it's run at the record. Fantastic Beasts created a whole world that is both fantasy and period. I think the work they accomplished there is simply too big to ignore. Also worth considering is the design of Arrival, which, while more subtle, had to convey the society of an alien race. La La Land may still win this, but its sets are so much more simple and real world than the competition that I think it could likely lose this one.

Will Win: Fantastic Beasts
Runner-Up: La La Land
If I Had A Ballot: Fantastic Beasts

Best Sound Editing
  • Arrival
  • Deepwater Horizon
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • La La Land
  • Sully
This is the place where La La Land either makes history or stays on track. Many weren't expecting it to get this nomination as it doesn't really have a lot of sound editing of note. The fact it got in here means even the sound branch wanted to recognize it wherever possible. I think a lot of voters don't totally know the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing, and they may think that a musical should win all the sound awards. If so, then La La Land will almost certainly go to twelve wins and break the win record. I don't think that happens, and voters will go the more traditional route with a war film. But if La La Land wins here and it's still early in the night, move all you chips to La La Land everywhere: it's breaking records.

Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Runner-Up: La La Land
If I Had A Ballot: Arrival

Best Sound Mixing
  • 13 Hours
  • Arrival
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • La La Land
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Fairly safe bet for La La Land here. Even though one of the biggest complaints I've seen about this film is that the sound mix seems muddled for a musical, the fact that it's a musical and musicals usually win this means it should be safe. That said, if Hacksaw gets Sound Editing it may get both sound awards since splits aren't always common here.

Will Win: La La Land
Runner-Up: Hacksaw Ridge
If I Had A Ballot: Arrival

Best Visual FX
  • Deepwater Horizon
  • Doctor Strange
  • The Jungle Book
  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The Jungle Book was a sight to behold, an entire world created in computer. It's kind of amazing that the entire film was shot in a warehouse, but you'd never know it to look at it. If Star Wars couldn't beat Ex Machina last year, it isn't going to beat a powerhouse film like The Jungle Book this year.

Will Win: The Jungle Book
Runner-Up: Star Wars
If I Had A Ballot: The Jungle Book

Best Animated Film
  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • Moana
  • My Life as a Zucchini
  • The Red Turtle
  • Zootopia
Worth keeping in mind here when people say Laika has to eventually win one of these: the most seen movie always wins here. The only exception was when Spirited Away won, but that was also the second year this award existed so the category hadn't developed its identity yet (are we awarding the film or the animation?) and it was up against a lot of garbage. So while Kubo may be another visual achievement by Laika, it isn't very widely seen compared to Zootopia. Add in that Zootopia actually feels timely and it's clear Laika will have to keep waiting to get their first Oscar.

Will Win: Zootopia
Runner-Up: Kubo and the Two Strings
If I Had A Ballot: Zootopia

Best Foreign Film
  • Land of Mine
  • A Man Called Ove
  • The Salesman
  • Tanna
  • Toni Erdmann
A surprisingly hard one to pick. It's between Toni Erdmann and The Salesman. A few weeks ago this was almost certainly going to Erdmann, but then the president tried to create a Muslim ban, meaning the film from Iran took on a more prominent place in this category. I haven't seen The Salesman yet, but I don't believe it has any overtly political aspect to it, so people would be voting more for the country than the film. That said, Erdmann feels like such a weird choice for a winner: a three hour comedy from Germany. I think it will be a tossup, but I'm going with The Salesman over the presumed front-runner in a show of support for Iran and filmmaker Asghar Farhadi.

Will Win: The Salesman
Runner-Up: Toni Erdmann
If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, only seen Erdmann

Best Documentary
  • 13th
  • Fire at Sea
  • I Am Not Your Negro
  • Life, Animated
  • O.J.: Made in America
This seems like a harder category than people are giving it credit for. Sure, at the end of the day OJ may likely win. But there are so many things working against it that I can't believe it will be that easy. It has the stigma of being a TV mini-series that played in a theater first, so some voters may feel uncomfortable giving it to the film. Also, the fact that it's seven hours means people may be less likely to have even watched the whole thing. On the flip side, 13th is such a slick, well made film about a major issue, and it's directed by a woman many argue was snubbed for Best Director a few years ago with Selma. I think 13th may be upsetting things here, but OJ is still very likely due to its pedigree this awards season.

Will Win: 13th
Runner-Up: OJ
If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, only saw 13th

And for the Shorts, I'm going with The White Helmets (Doc), Pearl (Animated), and La Femme et le TGV (live action). I somehow have gotten all three right two years running, so fingers crossed I can make it a hat trick.


So there you have it. I'm hoping Jimmy Kimmel will make for a solid host this year. When the surprises are few and far between, a solid show can make all the difference.

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

And the Nominees Are... 2017


Another bright early morning, and a whole new format for the Oscar nomination announcements! Let's dive in and take a look at what happened this year.
  • La La Land indeed did tie the record for most nominations in history. It's a very exclusive club, and one has to wonder just how far it can go on Oscar night. The win record is 11, can La La Land beat that?
  • Best Song continues it's track record of nominating something no one has ever heard of. In spite of it being one of the great years in cinema history for Song, they went with something called "The Empty Chair" from Jim: The James Foley Story. Was hoping a Sing Street surprise could have happened, but alas, Jim was just too popular!
  • Films that did worse than expected: Silence, Martin Scorsese's incredible passion project got just one nomination. Hidden Figures, which felt like it was coming on very strong, only managed three.
  • Films that did better than I expected: Jackie, with three nominations. It felt like it was on its way out lately, but it even got in for Mica Levi's incredible, odd score! Very glad. Hacksaw Ridge, with six including Director! I didn't think they'd welcome Mel back in but they did with open arms.
  • Moonlight, a film a few months ago felt like the kind of movie you hope gets at least one or two nominations given how arty it is, ended up with the second most nominations of the year. Incredible!
  • Let's talk about this new format for announcing the nominees. It was pretty terrible. There's something about the energy in the room when they're announced live that adds to the excitement. This new format of past nominees telling us stories in between announcements was pure filler and added nothing. The only people watching this are Oscar fanatics who want to know who was nominated. We're already up at 5 in the morning, don't waste our time!
Best Picture
  • Arrival
  • Fences
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hidden Figures
  • Hell or High Water
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Manchester by the Sea
  • Moonlight
Which Ones I've Seen: All of the nine. Seriously, it's just always going to be eight or nine each year. They need to go back to five and make this more exciting.

Who Should Win: La La Land. It's just a huge crowd pleaser, a technical marvel, and I think it will hold up well among winners this decade as history wears on.

Who Will Win: Probably the film that tied the record for most nominations in history. Just a hunch.

Surprises: None. Again, go back to five and we might have some more suspense. 

Best Director
  • Damien Chazelle - La La Land
  • Mel Gibson - Hacksaw Ridge
  • Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
  • Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
  • Denis Villeneuve - Arrival
Which Ones I've Seen: All of the nominees.

Who Should Win: Chazelle. What he pulls off with this film is certainly impressive.

Who Will Win: Chazelle. I'm starting to think I may be happy with a lot of the results come Oscar night.

Surprises: Mel. He got in over Scorsese, over the guys behind Lion and Hell or High Water. Clearly they loved the film to nominate him after his history.

Best Actor
  • Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
  • Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
  • Ryan Gosling - La La Land
  • Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
  • Denzel Washington - Fences
Which Ones I've Seen: All of them.

Who Should Win: Viggo. Such a lovely, nuanced performance. It's the kind of performance that you don't normally see nominated, so it makes this nomination extra nice.

Who Will Win: Tough one! Wisdom says Affleck continues his winning streak, but I feel like they may not be warm enough to him as a person to give him a win. I have a weird feeling Gosling could be the surprise of the night, riding the coattails of La La Land as it potentially ties or breaks the win record.

Surprises: Viggo was not a sure thing, but he felt fairly likely. And poor Tom Hanks is forgotten yet again for another strong performance in his late period renaissance. Hopefully he can return to the fold again soon.

Best Actress
  • Isabelle Huppert - Elle
  • Ruth Negga - Loving
  • Natalie Portman - Jackie
  • Emma Stone - La La Land
  • Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins  
Which Ones I've Seen: Everyone!

Who Should Win: Portman. She may have already won once before, but she deserves another statue for this towering performance.

Who Will Win: Emma Stone. And I can't really argue with it either, she is also quite good. The film wouldn't work were it not for her.

Surprises: Ruth Negga got in after the complete lack of love for Loving all season. She replaced Amy Adams, whose Arrival was one of the biggest films of the day. Quite a surprise!

Best Supporting Actor
  • Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
  • Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water
  • Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea
  • Dev Patel - Lion
  • Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals
Which Ones I've Seen: I've seen all five.

Who Should Win: Actually, this is a surprisingly strong lineup across the board. I'd probably go with Ali, but Shannon gives a delightfully weird performance in his film, I'm surprised they recognized him.

Who Will Win: Ali. It doesn't quite feel like the kind of performance that normally wins, and both Hedges and Patel have more emotional performances, but they will want to reward Moonlight somewhere and this is an easy one to give it.

Surprises: Shannon, who came out of nowhere. Aaron Taylor-Johnson was getting all the acclaim lately for the film, but Shannon replaced him in the end. As it probably should have been. And Hugh Grant, who felt safe all year failed to get the nomination. Perhaps because he was clearly a lead and voters didn't want to pretend he was supporting (although that didn't stop them from nominating Patel).

Best Supporting Actress
  • Viola Davis - Fences
  • Naomie Harris - Moonlight
  • Nicole Kidman - Lion
  • Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures
  • Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea
Which Ones I've Seen: The full lineup.

Who Should Win: Williams. It's her fourth nomination, she's on a roll and this is a good performance. I'm not really big on most of the performances in this category though, it felt pretty thin this year. 

Who Will Win: Davis. Easiest call of the night. She is also very good in her film, and they certainly owe her after snubbing her for The Help five years ago.

Surprises: None really, although I continue to be mystified as to how Octavia Spencer gets nominations for not doing anything exceptional. They clearly saw Hidden Figures and yet they missed that every other performance was more worthy than this one, including fellow supporting actress (and Moonlight co-star) Janelle Monae.


So overall this feels like a strong group across the board, with only a few exceptions. A number of people got nominations that make me happy (Shannon, Patel, Hedges, Mortensen, Portman, Levi). Now it's time to see if La La Land can really take on the kings, Titanic, Ben-Hur, and Return of the King. I think it has a shot but we shall see. If I have one complaint about this year is that for the first time since 2011 we have an easy race to handicap. I'll miss the excitement of not knowing for sure what will win, but I'm glad it's at least a film I like that's steamrolling.


Nomination Tally
La La Land - 14
Moonlight - 8
Arrival - 8
Manchester by the Sea - 6
Lion - 6
Hacksaw Ridge - 6
Hell or High Water -4
Fences - 4
Jackie -  3
Hidden Figures - 3
Deepwater Horizon - 2
Florence Foster Jenkins - 2
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 2
Kubo and the Two Strings - 2
Moana - 2
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 2
Passengers - 2