Welcome back for another year of Oscar Nominations. After a few delays, we finally have our newest batch of nominees.
- Last year’s nomination announcement was very classy and fun, a throw back to the early aughts. This year was less well done (although at least it was still a live reading of the nominees and not a prerecorded one like they have done lately). Rachel Sennott and Bowen Yang simply are not the right combo for this kind of announcement.
- Emilia Perez leads the nominees with 13. I don’t know anyone who even likes this film, who is voting for this film?
- A lot of black artists were snubbed despite support most of the season. Denzel Washington, Clarence Maclin, Danielle Deadwyler, RaMell Ross all missed out on very reasonable bids.
- So many big sequels to Oscar winners were shunned this year, either completely (Joker: Folie a Deux, Furiosa), or mostly (Gladiator II). Even Dune: Part Two failed to garner nearly as many nominations as was expected.
- Two foreign films, one English film by way of a French auteur, and a film from a German born director. The Oscars continue to get more and more international with every year.
- I don’t remember the last year it felt this wide open on who could win Best Picture. Maybe 2015? Maybe we’ll look back in a year and say it was clear what the winner was in retrospect, but unless DGA and PGA both solidify an answer I think we will be in suspense until the night of the ceremony!
Best Picture
Who Should Win: I guess Anora? My taste and that of the Academy were pretty different this year (after my top five last year all being nominated), so I am less invested this year.
Who Will Win: Truly, what a strange year this has been. Since I don’t have to make a final prediction yet, I will just say that A Complete Unknown has completely overperformed by every metric. Eight nominations, including a surprise Supporting Actress and Director nomination. In a year with no clear frontrunner, could an easy to like music biopic take the crown? I’ll take that over Emilia Perez, which scored an absurd 13 nominations and has to be seen as a threat to win at this point.
Surprises: I’m Still Here was not a title I saw popping up here in predictions much. It came at the expense of Sing Simg, a title that for a large part of the year was considered a frontrunner to win this category. Nickel Boys also seemed unlikely in the final stretch to get in, especially when it missed the Cinematogrphy nomination.
Best Director
Who Should Win: Another one I’m not very invested in. I’d say Baker is far ahead here for me, but none of these filmmakers are really my speed generally. But Anora is the one great film here so that’s my choice.
Who Will Win: From this far out I still think it could be a surprise. The general sense is that Brady Corbet gets this for the grand scale of his film. But Corbet is such a strange winner, and if a different film starts to take a lead in Best Picture, might its director come along? If Emilia Perez is a real threat for Picture, why wouldn’t Audiard, an actual name in this category, not go along with it?
Surprises: I didn’t think Mangold would make it here, although I have long held the opinion that he will one day win an Oscar as he is the kind of journeyman filmmaker that will likely make a broadly appealing film the Academy loves. He probably won’t win here though. Berger is the surprise snub, as Conclave felt like it had a real shot at Picture and now less so.
Best Actor
Who Should Win: I’m as surprised as anyone that Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump is my choice here. I’ve underrated him since I first saw him a decade plus ago, but this and his Different Man performance really turned me around on him. He has no shot at winning but he really surprised me.
Who Will Win: I think it may just be Chalamet. I suspect enough voters will either feel content that they’ve already rewarded Brody, or won’t be able to make it through The Brutalist, which is enough of a ding that Brody won’t win his second Oscar, paving the way for Chalamet becoming the youngest winner ever in this category.
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Perez
- I’m Still Here
- Nickel Boys
- The Substance
- Wicked
Who Should Win: I guess Anora? My taste and that of the Academy were pretty different this year (after my top five last year all being nominated), so I am less invested this year.
Who Will Win: Truly, what a strange year this has been. Since I don’t have to make a final prediction yet, I will just say that A Complete Unknown has completely overperformed by every metric. Eight nominations, including a surprise Supporting Actress and Director nomination. In a year with no clear frontrunner, could an easy to like music biopic take the crown? I’ll take that over Emilia Perez, which scored an absurd 13 nominations and has to be seen as a threat to win at this point.
Surprises: I’m Still Here was not a title I saw popping up here in predictions much. It came at the expense of Sing Simg, a title that for a large part of the year was considered a frontrunner to win this category. Nickel Boys also seemed unlikely in the final stretch to get in, especially when it missed the Cinematogrphy nomination.
Best Director
- Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez
- Sean Baker - Anora
- Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
- Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
- James Mangold - A Complete Unknown
Who Should Win: Another one I’m not very invested in. I’d say Baker is far ahead here for me, but none of these filmmakers are really my speed generally. But Anora is the one great film here so that’s my choice.
Who Will Win: From this far out I still think it could be a surprise. The general sense is that Brady Corbet gets this for the grand scale of his film. But Corbet is such a strange winner, and if a different film starts to take a lead in Best Picture, might its director come along? If Emilia Perez is a real threat for Picture, why wouldn’t Audiard, an actual name in this category, not go along with it?
Surprises: I didn’t think Mangold would make it here, although I have long held the opinion that he will one day win an Oscar as he is the kind of journeyman filmmaker that will likely make a broadly appealing film the Academy loves. He probably won’t win here though. Berger is the surprise snub, as Conclave felt like it had a real shot at Picture and now less so.
Best Actor
- Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
- Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
- Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
- Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice
Who Should Win: I’m as surprised as anyone that Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump is my choice here. I’ve underrated him since I first saw him a decade plus ago, but this and his Different Man performance really turned me around on him. He has no shot at winning but he really surprised me.
Who Will Win: I think it may just be Chalamet. I suspect enough voters will either feel content that they’ve already rewarded Brody, or won’t be able to make it through The Brutalist, which is enough of a ding that Brody won’t win his second Oscar, paving the way for Chalamet becoming the youngest winner ever in this category.
Surprises: Daniel Craig was on the bubble all season, but having just seen Queer I can see why it was too much of an ask for voters to watch it and nominate him. Hopefully Craig will be back again soon.
Best Actress
- Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
- Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez
- Mikey Madison - Anora
- Demi Moore - The Substance
- Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here
Who Should Win: I’d be happy with Madison winning for her star is born performance. But Demi Moore also has a strong narrative and would be a fun, atypical winner.
Who Will Win: The consensus has been forming around Moore, which is bizarre given what the film actually is but makes sense when you consider that the Academy has been enthusiastic about rewarding comeback narratives of late. But the more I hear about Torres the more I think she has a shot as more people see it. She won the Globe for Drama, so she’s right in the mix.
Surprises: Certainly Marianne Jean-Baptiste was in the running for her best of the year performance. Also surprising is that Angelina Jolie and Nicole Kidman, royalty in this category, were both overlooked in the end.
Best Supporting Actor
- Yura Borisov - Anora
- Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
- Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
- Guy Pearce - The Brutalist
- Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice
Who Should Win: While I think he’s a lead, Culkin is far and away my pick here. He has a lot of range in his role. I was also surprised by how good Norton is, playing against type as a largely sweet affable folk singer.
Who Will Win: Culkin, in one of the few easy locks of the night. No one else has really come close to him.
Surprises: Strong really didn’t seem likely to me so I guess he’s a surprise. He came at the expense of Clarence Maclin, which is a real shame as he was excellent. And Denzel Washington seemed like such a lock for so long, but the indifference to Gladiator II really killed his chances.
Best Supporting Actress
- Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown
- Ariana Grande - Wicked
- Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
- Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
- Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez
Who Should Win: Nothing shocks me more this year than how much I enjoyed Wicked, and specifically Ariana Grande in it. She is my clear standout in this group.
Who Will Win: Zoe Saldana has this locked up. She is well liked in the industry, she’s a lead masquerading as Supporting, and she is in the nomination leader. She has this one easily.
Surprises: Monica Barbaro was not really in the conversation until late, so good on her for storming this category at the last minute. And it may have come at the expense of a career worst performance from Jamie Lee Curtis, so win-win.
Unlike past recent years I have no vested interest in most of these races, so I’m all for some big surprises. Hopefully those surprises don’t include Emilia Perez winning Picture, but otherwise I’m excited to see where the Oscars go in a bunch of categories.
Nomination Tally
Emilia Perez - 13
The Brutalist- 10
Wicked - 10
A Complete Unknown - 8
Conclave - 8
Anora - 6
The Substance - 5
Dune: Part Two - 5
Nosferatu - 4
I’m Still Here - 3
Sing Sing - 3
The Wild Robot - 3
Flow - 2
A Real Pain - 2
Nickel Boys - 2
The Apprentice - 2
