What started as a good year for the Oscars (great nominees, a return to having hosts) has devolved into a total disaster. Moving 1/3 of the categories to preshow with the winners apparently being announced on Twitter is a disgrace. At this point the Academy needs to find a new network to air them as ABC is actively trying to destroy the show. With the 100 year anniversary coming up soon, it’s such a shame that the Academy seems hellbent on erasing any prestige or sense of history that they once had. They aren’t going to get any new viewers by doing this, and longtime fans are obviously going to hate this just on principal, so no one wins but ABC. Hopefully someone with a stronger backbone takes over next election cycle in the Academy, because these changes are unsustainable.
But this is about predictions, so let’s get to it.
Best Picture- Belfast
- CODA
- Don’t Look Up
- Drive My Car
- Dune
- King Richard
- Licorice Pizza
- Nightmare Alley
- The Power of the Dog
- West Side Story
Well this one got hard real fast. There are two films now neck and neck, but each has reasons why their win would be against major stats in this category. The film that has come on hard in the last few weeks is
CODA. It won the SAG Ensemble and the PGA award, which combined would normally make it a lock here. PGA in particular is a strong bellwether because they use the same preferential voting system that the Academy uses. But
CODA failed to get either a Director or Editing nom. Each on their own might not be an issue, but combined they would break all the rules of Best Picture. No film in the modern era has missed both noms and won here. That combined with just three noms overall and maybe
CODA is weaker with the Academy than with other awards groups. So can the previous frontrunner still win?
Power of the Dog is the nomination leader, and it won DGA and BAFTA. BAFTA in particular is useful as there is a large non-American voting block in the Academy, and BAFTA often gives insight into those voters’ thoughts. But without PGA or SAG, the film may be at a disadvantage going into the final stretch. And the past four years have proven there in an anti-Netflix bias among voters.
CODA is the far more entertaining film, and it doesn’t challenge you the way
Power of the Dog does. So who wins? I am going down with the ship: I’m sticking with
Power of the Dog, even though all signs point to momentum swinging in
CODA’s direction.
Runner-Up: CODA
If I Had A Ballot: Power of the Dog is my favorite film of the year, so maybe I’m being blinded by that here.
- Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza
- Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
- Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi - Drive My Car
- Steven Spielberg - West Side Story
Two years in a row this will go to a woman, which is a great start to rectifying 90+ years of history. No matter who wins Picture, Jane Campion has this one locked up. She is also the only woman to ever be nominated more than once in Director, which makes her feel overdue in a way. And she totally deserves it. Her only competition is Spielberg (which was also true in 1993, her previous nomiation). But Spielberg feels a bit undervalued of late, and while he did exceptional work visually with his film, it feels a little been there done that since they already rewarded
West Side Story once before. But I think Spielberg might be gearing up for a good year in 2022 with his autobiographical film coming in November.
Campion
Spielberg
Campion
- Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos
- Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
- Andrew Garfield - tick, tick… Boom!
- Will Smith - King Richard
- Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth
Last year showed that an important stat needs to be remembered: it is very hard to win Actor if you aren’t in a Best Picture nominee. Chadwick Boseman was the obvious frontrunner last year, only to lose to Anthony Hopkins, who was in a Best Picture nominee. That’s important this year only in that Will Smith has only one challenger: Benedict Cumberbatch, and not Andrew Garfield as some thought possible. Smith seems like a lock, though, and his thirty year history as one of the biggest stars in Hollywood is formidable. But
Power of the Dog seems unlikely to win any acting awards, and if it is the frontrunner for Best Picture then maybe one actor surprises. Cumberbatch would be a possible beneficiary there, although I wouldn’t bet on it.
Smith
Cumberbatch
Cumberbatch
- Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
- Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter
- Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers
- Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos
- Kristen Stewart - Spencer
Alright, here we go. This is either the most confusing category of the night, or it has solidified far more than I realize and I’m overthinking it. I think anyone but Cruz could win (and that’s only because foreign language wins are rare and usually need more consensus around them as a frontrunner to win). I
think Stewart (once thought a runaway frontrunner) is also bringing up the rear. Her film ended up being incredibly divisive, and the fact it got no support anywhere else in the nominations makes me think enough people were turned off by it that she can win. So that leaves three people with equal odds. Kidman was thought the new frontrunner for a minute, in part because she seems the most deserving to be a two-time winner based on body of work. That along with she’s playing a beloved real life person means she has a lot going for her. But response to the film has cooled, and some people feels she didn’t really capture the essence of Lucille Ball correctly. Jessica Chastain has now become the presumptive frontrunner after winning at SAG and the Critics Choice awards. She has never won before (unlike her main competition) and she is well liked in the industry. So it’s probably her time. But. Do people really like that performance or film much? I genuinely thought she would be snubbed for the nomination, so I’m truly surprised she is now in the lead. Which brings me to Colman. She just won in an upset a few years ago, can she really win number two so quickly? Yes! Her film seems to be gaining traction, and if it won’t win for Screenplay, it may win here. Colman is clearly well liked, amd this performance, as prickly as it is, is undeniably the best of the five. In such a close race I think that’s enough to get her a second Oscar. Very often people win multiple Oscars in close proximity to each other (Sean Penn, Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand). When they like you they really like you. So I predict Colman wins in another upset. But if Chastain wins it won’t surprise me (too much).
Colman
Chastain
Colman by a wide margin.
- Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
- Troy Kotsur - CODA
- Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog
- JK Simmons - Being the Ricardos
- Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog
This seemed like Kodi Smith-McPhee’s to lose. He won all the critic awards, and he was the most memorable part of the Best Picture frontrunner. But then things seemed to swing recently and Troy Kotsur took the lead. Kotsur won at SAG, as did
CODA for Ensemble. Suddenly it felt like Kotsur was dominating the conversation. And to be honest, Smit-McPhee was a very unusual frontrunner: he is very young and he plays an unusual, inscrutable person. Voters prefer older, friendlier performances here, which is Kotsur to a T. Smit-McPhee may still win as he does give a very memorable performance, but I think
CODA is surging so strongly at the right moment that it will likely carry Kotsur to the win. Either way, I win, as both are my two favorite performances in this category this year.
Kotsur
Smit-McPhee
McPhee, but Kotsur would be an equally good choice.
- Jessie Buckley - The Lost Daughter
- Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
- Judi Dench - Belfast
- Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog
- Aujanue Ellis - King Richard
This may be the most boring acting category this year. Ariana DeBose has a strong lead here with no obvious challenger. I will never understand how she got so much love for this performance when we already gave an Oscar to Rita Moreno for the same roll in the 60’s. But voters like this roll a lot and she does it well, so there is no reason to think she won’t win here. Kirsten Dunst might have been more formidable had her performance been a little louder or more showy, so she is not likely to surprise. If someone did I think it would be Aujanue Ellis. She gives the kind of performance that often wins here (suffering wife of lead character), and she does it with some original and interesting notes. She’s unlikely but you never know.
DeBose
Ellis
Buckley easily. A really great performance that I never thought they would even nominate.
- CODA
- Drive My Car
- Dune
- The Lost Daughter
- The Power of the Dog
This was once an easy category that now seems like it’s in a 3-way dead heat.
Power of the Dog should have sailed to an easy win here, but two things happened. One, Jane Campion became such a lock for Director that people started realizing they don’t need to reward here here as well. On top of that,
CODA has been building steam dramatically, with wins in this category, and
The Lost Daughter has been racking up wins at every indie awards event. I think
Lost Daughter is in third place, but the desire to reward Maggie Gyllenhaal, a known entity in Hollywood who broke out in exciting new ways may be tempting. So the question becomes, can
CODA win Best Picture? If so, a win here becomes essential. I am hedging my bets, I suspect
CODA may be winning Picture (even if I can’t quite bring myself to predict it), so I’ll guess it wins here on its way to a respectable 3 Oscar Best Picture victory. But if
Dog is still our Best Picture, I only have it winning 2 categories, which seems unlikely. So in that case maybe it’s stronger here than I realize?
If I Had A Ballot: What a great lineup! All five are worthy in their own ways. I’d choose
Dog, but I’m happy with any win here honestly.
- Belfast
- Don’t Look Up
- King Richard
- Licorice Pizza
- The Worst Person in the World
Only two films have any shot here:
Belfast and
Licorice Pizza. The only question is, has passion for
Belfast cooled enough that it goes home empty handed? It is the obvious choice here, and would give an overdue Kenneth Branagh an Oscar finally. But even more overdue at this point is Paul Thomas Anderson. His films never really get much awards traction for wins outside of
There Will Be Blood, so voters may realize this is their once chance to actually get him off their to-do list. Any other year and his film wouldn’t really be in the running, but a weak category and career momentum might just be enough. But if there is any real love for
Belfast I think it easily wins here.
by a nose.
- Dune
- Nightmare Alley
- The Power of the Dog
- The Tragedy of Macbeth
- West Side Story
Voters like cinematography on a grand scale. If there was is a big visual experience among the nominees, it likely wins. This year that is
Dune. Combining sci-fi with the visuals of an epic is a recipe for success. The biggest competitors are
Power of the Dog if they are feeling like they really want to reward their Best Picture favorite, and
Tragedy of Macbeth if they’re looking for something really distinctive. I think the sheer scale of
Dune will be unbeatable, but if they feel like they’ve overrewarded
Dune (it will certainly be the biggest winner of the night), there’s a chance this could go elsewhere.
- Cruella
- Cyrano
- Dune
- Nightmare Alley
- West Side Story
Anytime a movie in this category is about costumes or clothing, that is a good bet. This year that is
Cruella. Both
Dune and
West Side Story have reasons to vote for them as well, but sci-if isn’t usually their thing here and I suspect they are hesitant to reward
West Side Story too much given they already did that 60 years ago. So
Cruella gets it by default.
- Don’t Look Up
- Dune
- King Richard
- The Power of the Dog
- tick, tick… Boom!
For me this is hands down the hardest category of the night. I can see all five winning. A part of me wants to go with
Power of the Dog simply because it has to win somewhere else if it is going to win Picture.
Dune is considered by many to be the frontrunner but I’m not so sure. It lost at both BAFTA and ACE, which says to me it isn’t a strong contender.
tick, tick… Boom has the markings of an Editing winner to me, and it’s surprise recognition here against much bigger contenders makes me think it has a chance. But
King Richard has been winning awards in this category, likely because of the sports element to it. I just have a hard time believing it could win this though as it’s mostly just a character drama. And
Don’t Look Up has the cross-cutting between various characters thing going for it, which voters love. Because it feels so chaotic, I’m going to go with the chaotic choice:
tick, tick… Boom! But really all five have a solid chance.
- Coming 2 America
- Cruella
- Dune
- The Eyes of Tammy Faye
- House of Gucci
I’m not going to go with my gut and instead I’ll follow consensus. Consensus says this is easily
Eyes of Tammy Faye. Voters are definitely watching the film for Chastain now, so it has a lot more eyes on it than the other films. But I genuinely think the makeup is actively bad here and the worst of the category. I get that Tammy Faye liked to wear a lot of makeup, but that’s not the issue. My problem is that the wigs and prosthetics look like bad sketch work, not a prestige biopic. But everyone thinks it will win and I can’t see a clear path for someone else to surprise.
- Don’t Look Up
- Dune
- Encanto
- Parralel Mothers
- The Power of the Dog
All signs are pointing to Hans Zimmer winning a second Oscar for
Dune. For the longest time I really thought this was a lock for
Power of the Dog, but it seems like I was alone in thinking that. This is one of the categories I think
Dog could still surprise in if it does win Best Picture and needs to win somewhere other than Director. But everyone really likes the
Dune score and it’s already iconic so it makes sense as a win here. The only other wrinkle I can see is there has been a lot of talk recently about Composer Workshops that collects up and coming talents to flesh out scores for name composers but without the credit. Zimmer is kind of the face for this practice, so if voters feel weird about rewarding him for a score that he may not have been alone in composing then they could look elsewhere.
- Belfast - “Down to Joy”
- Encanto - “Dos Oruguitas”
- Four Good Days - “Somehow You Do”
- King Richard - “Be Alive”
- No Time to Die - “No Time to Die”
This is a bad lineup this year, unfortunately. In my mind there is no clear frontrunner, so you have to go off of other factors. To me the biggest factor is that Lin Manuel Miranda is close to an EGOT and the music in
Encanto is beloved, so he will likely win here, even though the song they nominated is the least popular one in the entire film. But the fact there will be a performance of the most popular song in the film at the show it tells me that they think this film will win here regardless of the song nominated. The only real competition is
No Time To Die since Billie Eilish is so popular, but she created a subpar Bond song and I can’t imagine them going for it this year.
Honestly not invested in any of these.
- Dune
- Nightmare Alley
- The Power of the Dog
- The Tragedy of Macbeth
- West Side Story
I think
Dune will stumble somewhere this year and I think it will be here. I suspect that instead
Nightmare Alley will take this. Voters love films set in the past here, and this is a film that is full of numerous distinct and memorable sets. But
Dune will definitely be the big winner of the night, so it wouldn’t surprise me if it just steamrolls the craft categories and takes this one as well.
Will Win: Nightmare AlleyRunner-Up: DuneIf I Had A Ballot: West Side StoryBest Sound- Belfast
- Dune
- No Time to Die
- The Power of the Dog
- West Side Story
Last year was the first year of the newly combined Sound categories, so we’re still figuring out what they look for here. Is it more heavily about sound effects or about the way the sound is used? Last year isn’t much of a guide as Covid meant that no big loud movies were released. This year we have their two favorite genres: action and musical. What they pick will indicate what aspect of sound they prefer. My gut tells me that big loud action will still win the day, which means
Dune wins. But the first thing you notice in a musical is the sound, and if they feel like sound is more important in musicals than anywhere else,
West Side Story wins.
Will Win: DuneRunner-Up: West Side StoryIf I Had A Ballot: Dune
Best Visual FX- Dune
- Free Guy
- No Time to Die
- Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
- Spider-Man: No Way Home
A typical strategy is go with the film that was nominated for Best Picture. About 90% of the time you will be correct. This year that is
Dune, and
Dune is a very good choice here regardless of its status in Best Picture. If any film challenges it, that would be
Spider-Man, only because the big hullabaloo about it not getting nominated for more Oscars. But the effects weren’t too special there, and they were in
Dune so that will win.
Will Win: DuneRunner-Up: Spider-ManIf I Had A Ballot: DuneBest Animated Feature- Encanto
- Flee
- Luca
- The Mitchells vs the Machines
- Raya and the Last Dragon
A rare year where the Pixar film has no real traction. But Disney is right there to swoop in, and
Encanto will win with ease. It has become a phenomenon recently, and no other film has the same level of ubiquity right now. They never go with the arty films here, so
Flee will likely lose this one even though this is its best shot at winning one of its three nominations.
Will Win: EncantoRunner-Up: FleeIf I Had A Ballot: Mitchells. Maybe as a dad of a young girl it played me like a fiddle, but it isn’t even a competition for me this year.
Best Foreign Film- Drive My Car
- Flee
- The Hand of God
- Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
- The Worst Person in the World
Well this would be embarrassing if
Drive My Car lost here. After surging to Picture and Director nominations, this is a clear choice here. They used to throw us curveballs here and not go with the crossover film, but lately the biggest one wins. The only competition might be
Worst Person in the World, only because it also got a surprise nomination in Screenplay.
Will Win: Drive My CarRunner-Up: Worst Person in the WorldIf I Had A Ballot: I give the slight edge to
Worst Person here, but
Drive My Car is almost equally perfect. Both were in my top 10 this year.
Best Documentary Feature- Ascension
- Attica
- Flee
- Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
- Writing With Fire
The only other place I think
Flee has any shot is here. But voters often love music related documentaries, and
Summer of Soul is incredibly watchable while also having deeper undercurrents about race and society. I think that will be the victor here, but sometimes they hold it against films that are just a collection of older footage and not an original production, which would benefit
Flee.
Will Win: Summer of SoulRunner-Up: FleeIf I Had A Ballot: Summer of SoulAnd for the Shorts I’m going with
Runner Runner (Animated),
The Queen of Basketball (Documentary), and
The Long Goodbye (Live Action).
Do I feel confident this year? Honestly, not really. I haven’t been this unsure in so many categories in a long time. I have Dune as the biggest winner, but with only 4. That feels low. I have Power of the Dog winning Picture and Director and nothing else. Also feels low. And I have CODA not winning Picture, even though it clearly has the needed momentum. In short, I think we could be in for a lot of surprises. It’s just a shame that so many of those surprises will be spoiled before the show even begins.
Well that was certainly an unusual night. In what should have been a coronation for CODA, the little film that could, it ended up being about Will Smith not being able to control his anger and assaulting Chris Rock. So let’s get that out of the way first. Smith, not being able to stand a G.I. Jane joke at his wife’s expense, came on stage and clocked Chris Rock mid-presentation (what is it with people getting so mad at Rock specifically? I still remember how mad Sean Penn got at his 20 years ago over a joke about Jude Law). The fact is, Smith was right to be mad at the joke, but how he handled it was obscene and really put him in a terrible light. The fact that he was not kicked out right then (even if we all knew he was about to win, they could have mailed him that trophy) indicates an incredible lack of judgment on the part of the producers. A pall fell over the rest of the show, especially poor Qwestlove, who didn’t deserve to have his moment ruined like that. It really was one of the worst moments in Oscar history, not just the slap, but the way it was handled the rest of the night.
