Monday, March 11, 2024

Oppenheimer Has Explosive Oscar Night

As we all predicted, Christopher Nolan finally had his big moment. Oppenheimer won 7 Oscars, including 2 for Nolan himself. It was an entirely predictable night (I did my best ever on predictions, 20/23 correct), but also a very good one. Indeed, this was one of the better Oscar ceremonies in memory. It was streamlined without feeling rushed, with good bits, great winners, and memorable speeches. I had some minor quibbles with the show itself, but overall this was what I want from an Oscar ceremony.

Let’s talk about those winners. Da’Vine Joy Randolph gave the best speech, right at the start of the show. Robert Downey Jr and Cillian Murphy were both good winners, rewarding both good performances and incredible careers. The one surprise was Emma Stone winning her second Oscar over Lily Gladstone. She gave a truly incredible performance, and it’s exciting to see her be a 2 time winner this early in her career. I was sad for Lily though. I really wanted to hear what her speech would have been.

Another winner worth mentioning is Wes Anderson. His career has spanned almost 30 years and he has never won before. It feels weirdly right that he won for a short film, given how unusual his filmography is. He feels like the kind of guy who would likely never be acknowledged by the Academy for what he does on a big scale (see the entire shutout of Asteroid City this year alone), so winning here felt good, even though he couldn’t make it to the show to accept.

So, will the Academy realize how good this show was and try to emulate it again next year? I hope so, as this felt like the right way to do the show. They knew they were going to have a bigger than normal audience this year given the nominees, and they stepped up their game to try and show fair weather viewers that the Oscars are still relevant and worth talking about. 

Random Thoughts
  • Ryan Gosling my have lost the Oscar but he won the ceremony. His performance of “I’m Just Ken” was a show highlight. It only reinforced the idea that not only should the song have won, but Gosling should have walked away with an Oscar for Supporting Actor.
  • A lot of very funny bits. The two highlights for me were John Cena chickening out on streaking, then to reveal what category he was presenting by saying “Costumes are very important.” The other highlight was Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny Devito presenting and heckling Batman as two previous Batman villains. It reminded me yet again that Arnold should be at the top of the list for an honorary Oscar. His impact on cinema is undeniable.
  • I like the actor tributes in theory, but often the details of each speech feel a little generic and sometimes the actors chosen to give the speech have no real connection to the nominee. It also meant no acting clips, which is a dealbreaker to me.
  • Other small details that made all the difference: isolating the sound of films for the Sound Oscar, not playing off anyone making a personal speech, the intro clips to each Picture nominee after each commercial break. Really, the only flop was the In Memorium (just show us the people who have passed, don’t focus on dancers and singers, literally no one cares about that). Overall it was just expertly produced.
  • Jimmy Kimmel was again a steady hand, if not especially memorable. But John Mulaney clearly is auditioning for host duties between tonight’s show and his stint as Governors Ball host. Fingers crossed he gets the job soon.
  • Scorsese yet again goes 0 for 10. They respect him, but they don’t especially love his films. Too bad.
  • And of course, Al Pacino presented Best Picture in such an anticlimactic, muddled way that I can’t imagine he will ever be asked back for that duty again. “My eyes see Oppenheimer.”  No buildup, no reading of the nominees or naming who won for Producing the film. Yikes.
So can we have a year as good as this more often? The winners could have been a bit less predictable, it when the winners are as good as these it’s hard to argue.

Thursday, March 7, 2024

Final Oscar Predictions 2024


The coronation of Christopher Nolan is upon us. There is no doubt Oppenheimer will win big and win a lot,  tu the question now is how many. I’m predicting seven wins, but I think two more are also very possible. It will be interesting to see what films pick up the scraps leftover. I’m also hoping for a good, classy ceremony. The producers have been making a lot of good decisions, so I’m hoping they are leaning into a classic show style that will entertain as well as give the winners their proper respect. I’m also very curious to see how they handle the acting awards given that they’re going back to the groups of previous winners presenting each award like they did in the late Aughts. Between a proming show and a lot of likely good winners, I think we may be in for a great night.

Best Picture
  • American Fiction
  • Anatomy of a Fall
  • Barbie
  • The Holdovers 
  • Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Maestro
  • Oppenheimer 
  • Past Lives
  • Poor Things
  • The Zone of Interest
This is one of those rare years lately where there is a juggernaut that won’t be stopped. Oppenheimer is the perfect storm of a Best Picture nominee: critical hit, giant blockbuster, overdue auteur, and Oscar-friendly subject matter. It is incredibly rare to have a film check all these boxes, so when it happens it can’t be ignored. I do wonder - this is the second year in a row with a clear winner well in advance that is also going to win a ton of awards. The 90’s were full of these kinds of winners, and we had two or three in the Aughts, but since 2008 this has not been true. After last year’s big winner and now Oppenheimer I wonder if we’re swinging back to the Best Pictures that win a lot of awards and are frontrunner all season. Next year will show if this is a trend or a blip.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
If I Had A Ballot: Poor Things would be my pick by a hair, but honestly Oppenheimer should win. It is a great choice that would actually boost confidence in the Academy by general audiences. 

Best Director
  • Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
  • Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
  • Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
  • Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
I am a big proponent of giving it to the person who is due when they earn it. I’ve mentioned before how the Academy blew it by not rewarding Bradley Cooper for his A Star is Born performance, and the same could be said of Nolan this year. He has had a legendary career, has turned in best of career work, and he will win at some point, so why not now instead of a makeup win down the road? Luckily, this won’t be a Bradley Cooper moment and Nolan will certainly win this. Only Scorsese has any real narrative here, but voters once again seem a little cool on his film.

Will Win: Christopher Nolan
Runner-Up: Martin Scorsese
If I Had A Ballot: Nolan, he’s just undeniable (and I’m truly not a Nolan appologist).

Best Actor
  • Bradley Cooper - Maestro
  • Colman Domingo - Rustin
  • Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
  • Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
  • Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
This could be a close one until the end. My gut all season has said Cillian Murphy is going to be hard to beat. Oppenheimer is the runaway Best Picture favorite, and Murphy is the whole movie. How do you vote for Oppenheimer and not also vote for him? Well a lot of people have doubted him all season, claiming Giamatti will win because of his overdue narrative and because everyone loves him. Both are good reasons, but after BAFTA and SAG I feel confident it’s Murphy here. He just seems undeniable.

Will Win: Cillian Murphy
Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti
If I Had A Ballot: I’d honestly be happy with both. I might give the edge to Giamatti, but on a different day I could go for Murphy.

Best Acress
  • Annette Bening - Nyad 
  • Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
  • Carey Mulligan - Maestro
  • Emma Stone - Poor Things
Maybe the closest race of the night? It has just been back and forth between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. Emma has the showier role, but Gladstone is the more emotional part. Emma has already won an Oscar, which could hold her back slightly. But plenty of young actors have won two close to each other (Hilary Swank, Jodie Foster). Scorsese movies of late have had a habit of getting a lot of nominations and no wins, something only Gladstone stands between this year as Killers of the Flower Moon has no other obvious shot to win something. With the women splitting victories between BAFTA and SAG, and both winning their categories at the Globes, it is a tight race. I think the narrative behind Gladstone will win out, being the first Indigenous woman to win. But Stone is right there waiting to take this.

Will Win: Lily Gladstone
Runner-Up: Emma Stone
If I Had A Ballot: Emma Stone is my choice, but I would be so happy for Gladstone to win as well.

Best Supporting Actor
  • Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction
  • Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
  • Ryan Gosling - Barbie
  • Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
As soon as Oppenheimer was released, pundits claimed this was Downey Jr.’s to lose. I always had a bit of skepticism on that front - I don’t know anyone who thinks Downey is the best Supporting performance in Oppenheimer, let alone this category as it stands. And yet, the goodwill towards him is undeniable. Talk about a career! It has felt obvious for a while that when he finally did the kind of performance that was Oscar adjacent he would win, so here we are now. But if enough voters assume he is going to win anyway and decide to vote with their hearts, who benefits? I really wonder about Gosling. It is the most widely seen film of the bunch, and he has to be one of the biggest things people love about the film. If voters can get over the fact they’re giving Ken an Oscar, maybe he has a shot?

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling
If I Had A Ballot: Gosling. Maybe my favorite performance this year, full stop.

Best Supporting Actress
  • Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
  • Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
  • America Ferrera - Barbie
  • Jodie Foster - Nyad
  • Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
The second nominations were announced was the last second this category was exciting. Randolph is the biggest acting lock of the night. It’s the easiest way to reward The Holdovers should it miss Actor and Screenplay, and Randolph has quietly made a strong career for herself this last decade or so. It also helps she is very easily the best performance of these five.

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt if they go all in on Oppenheimer.
If I Had A Ballot: Easily Randolph

Best Adapted Screenplay
  • American Fiction
  • Barbie
  • Oppenheimer
  • Poor Things
  • The Zone of Interest
To me this is the hardest category to call. I think three films have a real shot here. Barbie has felt like a real threat for a while as a consolation prize after missing nominations for Director and Actress. But it seems like the excitement for the film has muted since nominations. Oppenheimer is the Best Picture frontrunner, the film is undeniably a great feat of adaptation, and Nolan is actually most often nominated as a screenwriter, not as a director. So clearly there is a lot of passion for him as a writer. But won’t voters feel like Picture and Director are plenty? Which leaves American Fiction. The film has actually been wracking up wins in this category. It also feels like the kind of film that wins here: it’s a very literary script, and it’s about writers. I guess it has the edge, but all three feel possible. But sometimes voters just vote down the line for their favorite film (see Birdman or Everything Everywhere All at Once), so if that happens then Oppenheimer could easily win this too.

Will Win: American Fiction
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
If I Had A Ballot: Poor Things, which seems so bizarre that it never gained any traction in writing of all places given how fun the screenplay is.

Best Original Screenplay
  • Anatomy of a Fall
  • The Holdovers
  • Maestro
  • May December 
  • Past Lives
For a long time it really felt like The Holdovers was gaining momentum and would easily win this, but as we get closer to the awards it is clear that Anatomy of a Fall has taken the lead. It makes sense: a twisty mystery that both keeps you guessing and layers in deft character work at the same time. Voters really seem to be into this film (it even got a Director nod!), so it has to win somewhere. This makes a lot of sense, so it will be the film’s one win.

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
If I Had A Ballot: The Holdovers

Best Cinematography
  • El Conde
  • Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Maestro
  • Oppenheimer
  • Poor Things
This is where the Oppenheimer train starts to really pick up steam. The tech categories are where it’s going to score big, and Cinematography feels like one of the safest bets. The IMAX cameras add a lot to the presentation, and the combination of beautiful vistas, intimate character moments, and huge spectacle should be enough to get Hoyte Van Hoytema his first Oscar.

Will Win: Oppenheimer 
Runner-Up: Maestro
If I Had A Ballot: Oppenheimer

Best Costumes
  • Barbie
  • Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Napoleon
  • Oppenheimer
  • Poor Things
One of two categories that could go either to Barbie or Poor Things. Like in Production Design, voters overwhelmingly prefer period icees to modern films, which bodes well for Poor Things. But when a film is about fashion in some way (Cruella or Phantom Thread) then that can help with a win, which helps Barbie. Ultimately, I think the elaboratness of the Poor Things costumes outweighs the variety of Barbie outfits. But it will be close.

Will Win: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
If I Had A Ballot: Poor Things

Best Editing
  • Anatomy of a Fall
  • The Holdovers
  • Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Oppenheimer
  • Poor Things
Another easy win for Oppenheimer. The crosscutting between two timelines seamlessly, the propulsive pace in spite of a three hour runtime, and the immense tension in the Trinity Test sequence should put this over the top. A part of me does wonder about Anatomy of a Fall. It is unshowy, but it keeps a tension going through the murder(?) mystery at its center. If there is a big upset on Oscar night I could see this being a place it happens.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Anatomy of a Fall
If I Had A Ballot: Oppenheimer

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
  • Golda 
  • Maestro
  • Oppenheimer
  • Poor Things
  • Society of the Snow
Maestro has one shot at an Oscar, and it’s here. The team behind the makeup are well known for winning Oscar’s in this category and for making some of the most transformative makeup in recent cinema. They did it again here and will likely be rewarded. But a part of me wonders if Poor Things doesn’t have a real shot here? It’s not the kind of makeup they usually go for here, but it’s an iconic aspect of the film and would be an obvious place to reward a film they clearly loved but don’t have a lot of real options to reward.

Will Win: Maestro
Runner-up: Poor Things
If I Had A Ballot: Poor Things

Best Score
  • American Fiction
  • Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
  • Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Oppenheimer
  • Poor Things
A big part of what carries you through Oppenheimer so smoothly is that incredible score. This is another pretty easy win for the film as it racks up below-the-line wins on its way to Best Picture. The competition here is unusually weak. The only one with any real heat is Killers of the Flower Moon and the late Robbie Robertson. If voters want to reward him for his collaboration with Scorsese, knowing this will be the only chance, then maybe it has an outside shot. But really it is Oppenheimer’s to lose.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
If I Had A Ballot: Oppenheimer

Best Original Song
  • American Symphony - “It Never Went Away”
  • Barbie - “I’m Just Ken”
  • Barbie - “What Was I Made For?”
  • Flamin’ Hot - “The Fire Inside”
  • Killers of the Flower Moon - “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)”
Every indicator we’ve had says that “What Was I Made For?” will win this. And it’s hard to argue. And yet, I can’t help but wonder if voters won’t be more enamored with “I’m Just Ken” instead. It’s one of the best scenes in the movie, and it’s a great song. But maybe it’s a bit too silly for some voters, and Billie Eilish is already an Oscar favorite, so I guess they have it locked up. But I really think a Ken surprise could happen.

Will Win: “What Was I Made For?”
Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken”
If I Had A Ballot: “I’m Just Ken”

Best Production Design
  • Barbie
  • Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Napoleon
  • Oppenheimer
  • Poor Things
Poor Things is the classic kind of winner here: recreations of the past, but with a fantastical bent. It is probably the likely winner. But Barbie is a creation of a whole new world we’ve really never seen on screen before. I think some voters might be put off by the fact it’s a recreation of a toy world, which is both garish and intentionally flimsy looking. But if voters want a way to give Barbie more wins, this would be the place. But I also wonder if Killers of the Flower Moon doesn’t have a surprise win up its sleeve? Somehow, legend Jack Fisk has never won an Oscar, and Killers is among his most intricate work. I suspect voters will take the immensity of his work for granted though, yet again.

Will Win: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
If I Had A Ballot: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Sound
  • The Creator
  • Maestro
  • Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
  • Oppenheimer
  • The Zone of Interest
This could be a No Guts, No Glory pick, but I’m going against the consensus. Oppenheimer has overwhelming, loud, exciting sound, and it would be the obvious winner here based on past winners. But I think The Zone of Interest will surprise here. The whole film is sound. Anything you take away from the film is a result of that soundscape they created. Oppenheimer, as great as the sound is, feels familiar and safe. We’ve rewarded this kind of sound work many times before. Zone feels exciting and new, and I think voters will recognize that.

Will Win: The Zone of Interest in one of the only surprises of the night, and one of the few places Oppenheimer fails to win.
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer. I’m probably wrong and this is another place it wins, but I suspect we’ll be surprised.
If I Had A Ballot: The Zone of Interest easily.

Best Visual FX
  • The Creator
  • Godzilla Minus One
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
  • Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
  • Napoleon
I for a long time thought The Creator would walk away with this. It’s clearly the most impressive, especially at that budget level. But voters just haven’t seen the film, which is a big hurdle. Most prognosticators think Godzilla will win, but the effects look a bit goofy and this simply isn’t a franchise they’ve ever rewarded before. And then I realized that one of these films is not like the others - Napoleon. It helps when a film can stand out among a pack by being different from the rest. On top of that, when there is not an Avatar or Dune level epic in contention, they often go for the classier picture (think 1917 or First Man). So I think voters will look at this field, not see an obvious juggernaut, and instead see four goofy genre films and one classy movie and vote there.

Will Win: Napoleon
Runner-Up: The Creator
If I Had A Ballot: The Creator

Best Animated Feature
  • The Boy and the Heron
  • Elemental
  • Nimona
  • Robot Dreams
  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Most of the season people have said Spider-Man would win this easily, especially when Pixar and Disney both floundered with their films this year. But sequels rarely win here outside of Toy Story films, and I think voters will hesitate to vote for the middle chapter of a superhero trilogy, even if it was well received. So does Miyazaki get a second Oscar this year? I think so. The Boy and the Heron was widely acclaimed, and an actual hit. Voters will certainly want to reward Miyazaki one more time before he’s gone.

Will Win: The Boy and the Heron
Runner-Up: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
If I Had A Ballot: The Boy and the Heron

Best International Feature
  • Io Capitano
  • Perfect Days
  • Society of the Snow
  • The Teachers’ Lounge
  • The Zone of Interest
Generally speaking, lately when an International Film gets nominated for Best Picture it is the winner in this category. This year that film is The Zone of Interest. While it is a very challenging film, I think it has enough support that it will win here. If anything has a shot to beat it I’d guess it’s Society of the Snow. A large scale true story disaster film that has been a big hit on Netflix since nominations came out, it could be the more audience friendly option should voters feel alienated by Zone’s unique tone and structure.

Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Runner-Up: Society of the Snow
If I Had A Ballot: Zone of Interest

Best Documentary Feature
  • 20 Days in Mariupol
  • Bobi Wine: The People’s President
  • The Eternal Memory
  • Four Daughters
  • To Kill a Tiger
An unusually thin year for notable documentaries, it seems like the most relevant movie will win. 20 Days in Mariupol will easily win because of its timeliness in relation to the Ukraine War. But it is by no means a juggernaut here, as no documentary this year really broke out in the mainstream this year, so a surprise could certainly happen.

Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: The Eternal Memory
If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, have not seen any this year.

And in Shorts I have War is Over (Animated), The Last Repair Shop (Documentary), and The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Live Action). I am very unsure on Henry Sugar, as I don’t think it’s the type of film to typically win here but I’m thinking it is well known enough because of Wes Anderson that voters will pick it on name recognition. But that could also work against it if enough voters bristle at the idea of established filmmakers invading this category going forward.

So there you have it. A big night for Oppenheimer is assured, but how big is yet to be seen.

Tuesday, January 23, 2024

And the Nominees Are... 2024


Welcome to another year of Oscar nominations! A few thoughts first...

  • The presumed frontrunners all did as well as expected. I suspect this will be one of those easy to predict years where most everything follows the predetermined plan, much like last year. That said, the Picture nominees are largely excellent. Four of my five favorite films of the year all made it in.
  • So Wes Anderson is definitely going to win his only Oscar for a short film, right?
  • Speaking of short films, the weirdest nomination of the day was probably realizing that the Napoleon Dynamite filmmakers got their first nominations ever in Animated Short this year. 
  • We need to talk about Bradley Cooper. Another three nominations for him this year, bringing his total to an absurd twelve. And he has no chance in any of the three categories this year. At some point voters will get tired of him (it's inevitable), and he's either going to die with a ridiculous number of nominations and no wins, or he needs to win soon. It's clearer every year he should have won for his performance in A Star is Born.
  • People I'm excited to see get their first nominations (regardless of quality of film/performance): Colman Domingo, Cillian Murphy, Jeffrey Wright, Sterling K. Brown, Emily Blunt, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Jonathan Glazer.
  • I thought the nomination presentation was excellent. The hosts were on point, the audience was getting into it with their reactions, and the overall presentation was classy. Truly the ideal nomination presentation. Also, my favorite running joke was in every category it was nominated, it was always "And Poor Things," in such a throw away manner.

Best Picture
  • American Fiction
  • Anatomy of a Fall
  • Barbie
  • The Holdovers
  • Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Maestro
  • Oppenheimer
  • Past Lives
  • Poor Things
  • The Zone of Interest
Which Ones I've Seen: All but Zone of Interest. A24 has made it incredibly hard to see the film so far, unfortunately.

Who Should Win: With the caveat that Zone of Interest seems very interesting to me, I think Oppenheimer should probably win. I liked Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things a little bit more, but when the Academy has the chance to reward a genuine blockbuster that was also a critical darling, they should take it. These kinds of chances come along so rarely, they'd be foolish to ignore it now.

Who Will Win: Oppenheimer. Easily. It's the right confluence of things. That said, I wonder a bit about The Holdovers. It was coming on strong recently, and could potentially win three other awards, making it very formidable.

Surprises: Literally none. I prewrote the list of ten nominees before the nominations were announced as a placeholder for this post, and I didn't have to change any of them. These ten films really did solidify as the ten in recent weeks.

Best Director
  • Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
  • Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Thinigs
  • Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
  • Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
Which Ones I've Seen: Again, all but Zone of Interest.

Who Should Win: Nolan, it's his time. As I said above about Bradley Cooper, when the right time comes along for someone this big, they need to take it. Oppenheimer is Nolan's best film, and he is a major filmmaker. If not now, when?

Who Will Win: Nolan seems locked at this point. Honestly, no one else even really seems like a threat. Maybe Scorsese if they feel like he needs one more win, but honestly it is Nolan's to lose.

Surprises: I'm not totally sold on Barbie as a film, but if they liked it as much as it seems, Greta Gerwig was the reason that film worked. They have an aversion to blockbuster filmmakers here of late (Denis Villenueve says "Hi."), so it wasn't totally unexpected, just unfortunate. Luckily they had the sense to sub in another female filmmaker, as the optics of none when Gerwig was right there would be bad.

Best Actor
  • Bradley Cooper - Maestro 
  • Colman Domingo - Rustin
  • Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
  • Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
  • Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
Which Ones I've Seen: All five performances.

Who Should Win: Cillian Murphy truly holds his film together in an amazing way. And it is a transformative performance, too. I'm generally not impressed with biopic performances, but the nature of what Oppenheimer is as a film really serves Murphy well as an opportunity to flex his acting chops.

Who Will Win: It seems like a two person race between Murphy and Giamatti. Honestly, both would make me delighted. My gut all season has told me Murphy will win this, but many people don't seem to think he is a lock. But Oppenheimer is Murphy, it's hard to appreciate the film and not also his work in it. That said, Giamatti is beloved and has been charming everyone this season. I could totally see him sweeping in, especially when voters start to see how often they're rewarding Oppenheimer and feeling like maybe they should vote for something else somewhere. That said, right now I say Murphy wins as part of a sweep, but I'll wait until closer to the awards to call it.

Surprises: No Leonardo DiCaprio is a bit surprising, although his performance has been controversial all season. Colman Domingo getting in is also a bit surprising, as the film had no real support and his performance also wasn't that great. 

Best Actress
  • Annette Bening - Nyad
  • Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
  • Carey Mulligan - Maestro
  • Emma Stone - Poor Things
Which Ones I've Seen: All of them.

Who Should Win: I really loved Emma Stone's work in Poor Things. A funny, strange, nuanced portrayal that would likely be running away with every award had she not just won a few years ago.

Who Will Win: I suspect Lily Gladstone will be the way they reward Killers of the Flower Moon, and that's a great choice. It would be a historic win, and I can't see anyone not loving her. That said, I think Poor Things overperformed in nominations, and Killers feels like yet another Scorsese film that voters are a little less than excited about. An interesting thing to note: two other Scorsese films got 10 nominations and won none (Gangs of New York and The Irishman). Gladstone is the only likely win for the film, so if voters are as cool on this film as those other two, she may end up being a surprise loss at the ceremony in favor of Emma Stone.

Surprises: I genuinely did not think Bening had any shot here. It's not an especially interesting performance, and on top of that, like with Bradley Cooper, why keep nominating her if you know she has no shot at winning?

Best Supporting Actor
  • Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction
  • Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
  • Ryan Gosling - Barbie 
  • Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
Which Ones I've Seen: I've seen them all.

Who Should Win: Easily Ryan Gosling. I loved that performance so much, and he seemed so thoroughly committed to her performance. There was no winking or nudging, he just fully embraced his inner-Ken.

Who Will Win: The narrative all season has been about how it's finally Robert Downey Jr's time. After a decade-plus stuck with Marvel, he finally got to shine again. I thought his performance was... fine? He was not in my top five supporting performances in Oppenheimer, let alone the film year in general. But I would love to see him win an Oscar, so I'm not too broken up at the idea of him steamrolling.

Surprises: Mark Ruffalo seemed like a lock all season until he missed at SAG in favor of his costar Willem Dafoe. Ruffalo is the more interesting performance of the two, but I was very worried there when it seemed like Dafoe might be the one to get in (love him though I do). And Sterling K. Brown also seemed like a SAG nominee that got in because a lot of voters were TV actors, but I had a feeling that if they liked American Fiction as much as it seemed they would that he would get in. He has the kind of performance that gets nominated, and he is incredibly likable in general.

Best Supporting Actress
  • Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
  • Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
  • America Ferrera - Barbie
  • Jodie Foster - Nyad
  • Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
Which Ones I've Seen: Each of them.

Who Should Win: Randolph pretty easily. This has been a weird, thin category all year and she simply just towered over it all season.

Who Will Win: Randolph again. The most lockiest of locks of the night. I suppose Blunt could have a shot if they really want to go crazy for Oppenheimer. Brooks seemed like a threat for a while, but her film failing to get any nominations besides her is frankly stunning.

Surprises: Ferrera was someone I thought could show up here back in early fall, but it didn't seem t be going that way until this morning. I guess that monologue really impressed a lot of voters!

I think we're in for a fairly predictable Oscar night this year, but this has been a largely great lineup of films. But voters do have a very long time to think and rethink who they want to vote for, so surprises could always happen.

Nomination Tally
Oppenheimer - 13
Poor Things - 11
Killers of the Flower Moon - 10
Barbie - 8
Maestro - 7
American Fiction - 5
The Zone of Interest - 5
Anatomy of a Fall - 5
The Holdovers - 5
Napoleon - 3
Society of the Snow - 2
Past Lives - 2
Nyad - 2
The Creator - 2
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One - 2