Final Oscar Predictions 2024

The coronation of Christopher Nolan is upon us. There is no doubt Oppenheimer will win big and win a lot,  tu the question now is how many. I’m predicting seven wins, but I think two more are also very possible. It will be interesting to see what films pick up the scraps leftover. I’m also hoping for a good, classy ceremony. The producers have been making a lot of good decisions, so I’m hoping they are leaning into a classic show style that will entertain as well as give the winners their proper respect. I’m also very curious to see how they handle the acting awards given that they’re going back to the groups of previous winners presenting each award like they did in the late Aughts. Between a proming show and a lot of likely good winners, I think we may be in for a great night.

Best Picture

• American Fiction
• Anatomy of a Fall
• Barbie
• The Holdovers 
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer 
• Past Lives
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest

This is one of those rare years lately where there is a juggernaut that won’t be stopped. Oppenheimer is the perfect storm of a Best Picture nominee: critical hit, giant blockbuster, overdue auteur, and Oscar-friendly subject matter. It is incredibly rare to have a film check all these boxes, so when it happens it can’t be ignored. I do wonder - this is the second year in a row with a clear winner well in advance that is also going to win a ton of awards. The 90’s were full of these kinds of winners, and we had two or three in the Aughts, but since 2008 this has not been true. After last year’s big winner and now Oppenheimer I wonder if we’re swinging back to the Best Pictures that win a lot of awards and are frontrunner all season. Next year will show if this is a trend or a blip.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

If I Had A Ballot: Poor Things would be my pick by a hair, but honestly Oppenheimer should win. It is a great choice that would actually boost confidence in the Academy by general audiences. 

Best Director

• Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
• Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
• Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
• Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
• Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall

I am a big proponent of giving it to the person who is due when they earn it. I’ve mentioned before how the Academy blew it by not rewarding Bradley Cooper for his A Star is Born performance, and the same could be said of Nolan this year. He has had a legendary career, has turned in best of career work, and he will win at some point, so why not now instead of a makeup win down the road? Luckily, this won’t be a Bradley Cooper moment and Nolan will certainly win this. Only Scorsese has any real narrative here, but voters once again seem a little cool on his film.

Will Win: Christopher Nolan

Runner-Up: Martin Scorsese

If I Had A Ballot: Nolan, he’s just undeniable (and I’m truly not a Nolan appologist).

Best Actor

• Bradley Cooper - Maestro
• Colman Domingo - Rustin
• Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
• Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
• Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction

This could be a close one until the end. My gut all season has said Cillian Murphy is going to be hard to beat. Oppenheimer is the runaway Best Picture favorite, and Murphy is the whole movie. How do you vote for Oppenheimer and not also vote for him? Well a lot of people have doubted him all season, claiming Giamatti will win because of his overdue narrative and because everyone loves him. Both are good reasons, but after BAFTA and SAG I feel confident it’s Murphy here. He just seems undeniable.

Will Win: Cillian Murphy

Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti

If I Had A Ballot: I’d honestly be happy with both. I might give the edge to Giamatti, but on a different day I could go for Murphy.

Best Acress

• Annette Bening - Nyad 
• Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
• Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
• Carey Mulligan - Maestro
• Emma Stone - Poor Things

Maybe the closest race of the night? It has just been back and forth between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. Emma has the showier role, but Gladstone is the more emotional part. Emma has already won an Oscar, which could hold her back slightly. But plenty of young actors have won two close to each other (Hilary Swank, Jodie Foster). Scorsese movies of late have had a habit of getting a lot of nominations and no wins, something only Gladstone stands between this year as Killers of the Flower Moon has no other obvious shot to win something. With the women splitting victories between BAFTA and SAG, and both winning their categories at the Globes, it is a tight race. I think the narrative behind Gladstone will win out, being the first Indigenous woman to win. But Stone is right there waiting to take this.

Will Win: Lily Gladstone

Runner-Up: Emma Stone

If I Had A Ballot: Emma Stone is my choice, but I would be so happy for Gladstone to win as well.

Best Supporting Actor

• Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction
• Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
• Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
• Ryan Gosling - Barbie
• Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things

As soon as Oppenheimer was released, pundits claimed this was Downey Jr.’s to lose. I always had a bit of skepticism on that front - I don’t know anyone who thinks Downey is the best Supporting performance in Oppenheimer, let alone this category as it stands. And yet, the goodwill towards him is undeniable. Talk about a career! It has felt obvious for a while that when he finally did the kind of performance that was Oscar adjacent he would win, so here we are now. But if enough voters assume he is going to win anyway and decide to vote with their hearts, who benefits? I really wonder about Gosling. It is the most widely seen film of the bunch, and he has to be one of the biggest things people love about the film. If voters can get over the fact they’re giving Ken an Oscar, maybe he has a shot?

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling

If I Had A Ballot: Gosling. Maybe my favorite performance this year, full stop.

Best Supporting Actress

• Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
• Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
• America Ferrera - Barbie
• Jodie Foster - Nyad
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

The second nominations were announced was the last second this category was exciting. Randolph is the biggest acting lock of the night. It’s the easiest way to reward The Holdovers should it miss Actor and Screenplay, and Randolph has quietly made a strong career for herself this last decade or so. It also helps she is very easily the best performance of these five.

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt if they go all in on Oppenheimer.

If I Had A Ballot: Easily Randolph

Best Adapted Screenplay

• American Fiction
• Barbie
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest

To me this is the hardest category to call. I think three films have a real shot here. Barbie has felt like a real threat for a while as a consolation prize after missing nominations for Director and Actress. But it seems like the excitement for the film has muted since nominations. Oppenheimer is the Best Picture frontrunner, the film is undeniably a great feat of adaptation, and Nolan is actually most often nominated as a screenwriter, not as a director. So clearly there is a lot of passion for him as a writer. But won’t voters feel like Picture and Director are plenty? Which leaves American Fiction. The film has actually been wracking up wins in this category. It also feels like the kind of film that wins here: it’s a very literary script, and it’s about writers. I guess it has the edge, but all three feel possible. But sometimes voters just vote down the line for their favorite film (see Birdman or Everything Everywhere All at Once), so if that happens then Oppenheimer could easily win this too.

Will Win: American Fiction

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

If I Had A Ballot: Poor Things, which seems so bizarre that it never gained any traction in writing of all places given how fun the screenplay is.

Best Original Screenplay

• Anatomy of a Fall
• The Holdovers
• Maestro
• May December 
• Past Lives

For a long time it really felt like The Holdovers was gaining momentum and would easily win this, but as we get closer to the awards it is clear that Anatomy of a Fall has taken the lead. It makes sense: a twisty mystery that both keeps you guessing and layers in deft character work at the same time. Voters really seem to be into this film (it even got a Director nod!), so it has to win somewhere. This makes a lot of sense, so it will be the film’s one win.

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

If I Had A Ballot: The Holdovers

Best Cinematography

• El Conde
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things

This is where the Oppenheimer train starts to really pick up steam. The tech categories are where it’s going to score big, and Cinematography feels like one of the safest bets. The IMAX cameras add a lot to the presentation, and the combination of beautiful vistas, intimate character moments, and huge spectacle should be enough to get Hoyte Van Hoytema his first Oscar.

Will Win: Oppenheimer 

Runner-Up: Maestro

If I Had A Ballot: Oppenheimer

Best Costumes

• Barbie
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Napoleon
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things

One of two categories that could go either to Barbie or Poor Things. Like in Production Design, voters overwhelmingly prefer period icees to modern films, which bodes well for Poor Things. But when a film is about fashion in some way (Cruella or Phantom Thread) then that can help with a win, which helps Barbie. Ultimately, I think the elaboratness of the Poor Things costumes outweighs the variety of Barbie outfits. But it will be close.

Will Win: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

If I Had A Ballot: Poor Things

Best Editing

• Anatomy of a Fall
• The Holdovers
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things

Another easy win for Oppenheimer. The crosscutting between two timelines seamlessly, the propulsive pace in spite of a three hour runtime, and the immense tension in the Trinity Test sequence should put this over the top. A part of me does wonder about Anatomy of a Fall. It is unshowy, but it keeps a tension going through the murder(?) mystery at its center. If there is a big upset on Oscar night I could see this being a place it happens.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Anatomy of a Fall

If I Had A Ballot: Oppenheimer

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Golda 
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things
• Society of the Snow

Maestro has one shot at an Oscar, and it’s here. The team behind the makeup are well known for winning Oscar’s in this category and for making some of the most transformative makeup in recent cinema. They did it again here and will likely be rewarded. But a part of me wonders if Poor Things doesn’t have a real shot here? It’s not the kind of makeup they usually go for here, but it’s an iconic aspect of the film and would be an obvious place to reward a film they clearly loved but don’t have a lot of real options to reward.

Will Win: Maestro

Runner-up: Poor Things

If I Had A Ballot: Poor Things

Best Score

• American Fiction
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things

A big part of what carries you through Oppenheimer so smoothly is that incredible score. This is another pretty easy win for the film as it racks up below-the-line wins on its way to Best Picture. The competition here is unusually weak. The only one with any real heat is Killers of the Flower Moon and the late Robbie Robertson. If voters want to reward him for his collaboration with Scorsese, knowing this will be the only chance, then maybe it has an outside shot. But really it is Oppenheimer’s to lose.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

If I Had A Ballot: Oppenheimer

Best Original Song

• American Symphony - “It Never Went Away”
• Barbie - “I’m Just Ken”
• Barbie - “What Was I Made For?”
• Flamin’ Hot - “The Fire Inside”
• Killers of the Flower Moon - “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)”

Every indicator we’ve had says that “What Was I Made For?” will win this. And it’s hard to argue. And yet, I can’t help but wonder if voters won’t be more enamored with “I’m Just Ken” instead. It’s one of the best scenes in the movie, and it’s a great song. But maybe it’s a bit too silly for some voters, and Billie Eilish is already an Oscar favorite, so I guess they have it locked up. But I really think a Ken surprise could happen.

Will Win: “What Was I Made For?”

Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken”

If I Had A Ballot: “I’m Just Ken”

Best Production Design

• Barbie
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Napoleon
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things

Poor Things is the classic kind of winner here: recreations of the past, but with a fantastical bent. It is probably the likely winner. But Barbie is a creation of a whole new world we’ve really never seen on screen before. I think some voters might be put off by the fact it’s a recreation of a toy world, which is both garish and intentionally flimsy looking. But if voters want a way to give Barbie more wins, this would be the place. But I also wonder if Killers of the Flower Moon doesn’t have a surprise win up its sleeve? Somehow, legend Jack Fisk has never won an Oscar, and Killers is among his most intricate work. I suspect voters will take the immensity of his work for granted though, yet again.

Will Win: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
If I Had A Ballot: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Sound

• The Creator
• Maestro
• Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
• Oppenheimer
• The Zone of Interest

This could be a No Guts, No Glory pick, but I’m going against the consensus. Oppenheimer has overwhelming, loud, exciting sound, and it would be the obvious winner here based on past winners. But I think The Zone of Interest will surprise here. The whole film is sound. Anything you take away from the film is a result of that soundscape they created. Oppenheimer, as great as the sound is, feels familiar and safe. We’ve rewarded this kind of sound work many times before. Zone feels exciting and new, and I think voters will recognize that.

Will Win: The Zone of Interest in one of the only surprises of the night, and one of the few places Oppenheimer fails to win.
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer. I’m probably wrong and this is another place it wins, but I suspect we’ll be surprised.
If I Had A Ballot: The Zone of Interest easily.

Best Visual FX

• The Creator
• Godzilla Minus One
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
• Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
• Napoleon

I for a long time thought The Creator would walk away with this. It’s clearly the most impressive, especially at that budget level. But voters just haven’t seen the film, which is a big hurdle. Most prognosticators think Godzilla will win, but the effects look a bit goofy and this simply isn’t a franchise they’ve ever rewarded before. And then I realized that one of these films is not like the others - Napoleon. It helps when a film can stand out among a pack by being different from the rest. On top of that, when there is not an Avatar or Dune level epic in contention, they often go for the classier picture (think 1917 or First Man). So I think voters will look at this field, not see an obvious juggernaut, and instead see four goofy genre films and one classy movie and vote there.

Will Win: Napoleon
Runner-Up: The Creator
If I Had A Ballot: The Creator

Best Animated Feature

• The Boy and the Heron
• Elemental
• Nimona
• Robot Dreams
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Most of the season people have said Spider-Man would win this easily, especially when Pixar and Disney both floundered with their films this year. But sequels rarely win here outside of Toy Story films, and I think voters will hesitate to vote for the middle chapter of a superhero trilogy, even if it was well received. So does Miyazaki get a second Oscar this year? I think so. The Boy and the Heron was widely acclaimed, and an actual hit. Voters will certainly want to reward Miyazaki one more time before he’s gone.

Will Win: The Boy and the Heron
Runner-Up: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
If I Had A Ballot: The Boy and the Heron

Best International Feature

• Io Capitano
• Perfect Days
• Society of the Snow
• The Teachers’ Lounge
• The Zone of Interest

Generally speaking, lately when an International Film gets nominated for Best Picture it is the winner in this category. This year that film is The Zone of Interest. While it is a very challenging film, I think it has enough support that it will win here. If anything has a shot to beat it I’d guess it’s Society of the Snow. A large scale true story disaster film that has been a big hit on Netflix since nominations came out, it could be the more audience friendly option should voters feel alienated by Zone’s unique tone and structure.

Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Runner-Up: Society of the Snow
If I Had A Ballot: Zone of Interest

Best Documentary Feature

• 20 Days in Mariupol
• Bobi Wine: The People’s President
• The Eternal Memory
• Four Daughters
• To Kill a Tiger

An unusually thin year for notable documentaries, it seems like the most relevant movie will win. 20 Days in Mariupol will easily win because of its timeliness in relation to the Ukraine War. But it is by no means a juggernaut here, as no documentary this year really broke out in the mainstream this year, so a surprise could certainly happen.

Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: The Eternal Memory
If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, have not seen any this year.

And in Shorts I have War is Over (Animated), The Last Repair Shop (Documentary), and The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Live Action). I am very unsure on Henry Sugar, as I don’t think it’s the type of film to typically win here but I’m thinking it is well known enough because of Wes Anderson that voters will pick it on name recognition. But that could also work against it if enough voters bristle at the idea of established filmmakers invading this category going forward.

So there you have it. A big night for Oppenheimer is assured, but how big is yet to be seen.