Good morning! It's another year of Oscar nominations, let's see what they came up with in this especially polarizing year for the Academy.
- Ok, after two failed years of those pre-programmed morning announcements, they finally got it right again with an all live announcement. Kumail Nanjiani and Tracee Ellis Ross had wonderful banter and nailed the nominations reading. Can we get these tow to host the Oscars if no on else wants the job?
- Two foreign films nominated for Best Director! Is that a record? The only other time it may have happened was in the 70's when all the Academy's favorite foreign filmmakers were working.
- Not to mention, 3 of the 5 Cinematography nominees are foreign films as well. Clearly foreign films were popular this year.
- Black Panther made it in after all. I was truly worried for a minute that they'd screw that up and we'd have to hear more about the Popular Film Oscar next year, but luckily they got that right.
- Funny that a film that got 8 nominations can feel like it was forgotten, but A Star Is Born missing director and editing feels like it's done before it ever got started. That director branch really doesn't like actors who direct, do they?
- Any doubt that the Academy wouldn't embrace Netflix can be erased now. In addition to Roma leading the nominations with 10, Buster Scruggs got 3 nominations, none of which seemed likely.
- Jason Blum is quietly becoming an Oscar powerhouse, in addition to everything else he does well. This is his third Oscar nomination in five years.
- Most exciting nominations this year: Spike Lee finally getting Director, Paul Schrader's first nomination, 80% of that Score category, everything about Roma.
- BlacKkKlansman
- Black Panther
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- Roma
- A Star Is Born
- Vice
Who Should Win: Easily Roma. It's my favorite film of the year, and I haven't had that happen since 2014.
Who Will Win: Man, just when I thought this year was going to be easy to predict! A Star Is Born seemed like a sure thing for so long, but it missed too many key categories to be considered a front runner anymore. Green Book was coming on strong, but not getting a Director nomination gives me pause here, and it's feeling more and more like Three Billboards did last year. I really doubted Roma had a chance at winning this because it's foreign and it's Netflix, but it got a number of nominations that few thought likely. So maybe the love for it really is that strong.
Surprises: Not really, this was the exact lineup I was predicting. The only "surprise" is that they supported Bohemian Rhapsody as much as they did.
Best Director
- Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
- Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
- Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
- Adam McKay - Vice
- Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War
Who Should Win: Cuaron is my pick here, but I'd also be incredibly happy to see Spike Lee take this. This is probably the closest he'll come to winning this award, so maybe it's time to give it to him.
Who Will Win: Cuaron seems pretty locked up here. Again, Lee is the runner-up, but unless BlacKkKlansman is stronger than we expected he probably loses this and gets Screenplay.
Surprises: So many, take your pick! Bradley Cooper missing is a huge snub, a clear sign that the directors don't like actors encroaching on their territory. Peter Farrelly also seemed likely here, so his omission is a surprise. A lone Director nod for Cold War is surprising, as they had two more slots open in Picture and the Academy clearly liked the film in a few places.
Best Actor
- Christian Bale - Vice
- Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
- Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
- Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
- Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
Who Should Win: Cooper in a landslide. Again, having not seen Dafoe, the other actors here all gave almost laughably bad performances. And I really like all of them normally.
Who Will Win: I mean, maybe Cooper has enough goodwill after the Director snub to take this? He has somehow been missing out to Malek and Bale all season, so those are still likely bets. I'd say Bale may honestly be in the lead though. He seems like the kind of actor who should have two Oscars in his career, and the second win often comes within ten years of the first.
Surprises: No Ethan Hawke, who was a critics darling all season. I also thought for sure John David Washington would be here given the love for the film and the bad optics of nominating only a white actor for a movie that is so much a black narrative, but he missed it as well.
Best Actress
- Yalitza Aparicio - Roma
- Glenn Close - The Wife
- Olivia Coleman - The Favourite
- Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
- Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Who Should Win: Lady Gaga would be my choice. I was quite surprised how much I liked her work in that film.
Who Will Win: With A Star Is Born not securing the love I expected, I think this is down to Coleman and Close. I suspect this match-up clears up in the coming weeks, but right now it seems hazy. They loved The Favourite, so that seems like a better bet than Close for a film no one especially liked. But Julianne Moore is proof that doesn't matter when they just want you to get your Oscar already. So Close right now by a nose, but it's truly unclear.
Surprises: Not really. Aparicio was not a sure thing but I predicted the actors would want to get in on the Roma love somewhere. And poor Emily Blunt, she keeps coming close (twice this year!) and yet fails to get the nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali - Green Book
- Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
- Sam Elliott - A Star Is Born
- Richard E. Grant- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Sam Rockwell - Vice
Who Should Win: Of these five I'm a Grant guy. He is charming, funny, sad, and memorable in the role.
Who Will Win: It seems like Ali is on his way to another Oscar already. Whatever else people think about Green Book, he is the one aspect people seem like they can agree on.
Surprises: Sam Rockwell couldn't get arrested before, but now that he's in the club they welcome him in for a repeat nomination right away. I thought there were better supporting roles in Vice alone, so he is a bit of a head scratcher.
Best Supporting Actress
- Amy Adams - Vice
- Marina de Tavira - Roma
- Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
- Emma Stone - The Favourite
- Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
Who Should Win: I liked Stone and Weisz, but they are the leads of that film so voting for them seems wrong. I think de Tavira would be a great choice here.
Who Will Win: This one could be difficult. Regina King just seems like such an obvious choice here, but her role is so small and isn't as impactful as you'd expect from a winner. But she is an awards magnet so I think she still has the lead. But Amy Adams, had this been a more substantial role, surely would have steamrolled here. As it is, she has so little to do playing an unsympathetic character, that even if she does win, people may feel like they awarded her for the wrong performance after so many more worthy shots.
Surprises: This is what I love about nomination morning. There is always one nomination that no one saw coming, that had no precursor love. That was Marina de Tavira, who in retrospect seems like such an obvious choice, especially knowing the actors would want to nominate Roma somewhere and Aparicio being less than a sure thing.
So can Roma win this whole thing? Overall I'm fairly happy with these nominees in a lot of categories, and there are actually a few categories with no obvious winner yet, so that's extra exciting. Here's hoping that they somehow figure out how to make the awards ceremony not feel deflated by removing a third of the categories from the telecast.
Nomination Tally
Roma - 10
The Favourite - 10
A Star Is Born - 8
Vice - 8
Black Panther - 7
BlacKkKlansman - 6
Bohemian Rhapsody - 5
Green Book - 5
Mary Poppins Returns - 4
First Man - 4
If Beale Street Could Talk - 3
Cold War - 3
Can You Ever Forgive Me - 3
The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs - 3
Never Look Away - 2
Mary Queen of Scots - 2
Isle of Dogs - 2
RBG - 2
