And another Oscar nomination morning is on the books!
Surprises: Mescal was not at all certain given how small the film was and how new he is, but he rightly got in over Tom Cruise and Adam Sandler, the other men thought to stand a chance.
Best Actress
Who Should Win: Blancett. She is on another level. I also loved Williams, but consider her Supporting.
Who Will Win: Can Blanchett really win her third? I didn’t think it was likely, but her film overperformed today so they must like the film. But I really think Yeoh has a shot still here. Third wins are very rare.
Surprises: A lot! Riseborough, de Armas, and even Williams seemed unsure. No Danielle Deadwyler is a genuine shock, and so is Viola Davis to a lesser extent. Probably the most surprises in a single category.
Best Supporting Actor
Who Should Win: My pick here was snubbed (Paul Dano) so I have to go with Quan. A standout in his film and a great comeback narrative.
Who Will Win: Quan. The most locked winner of the night.
Surprises: Henry was a surprise given how small his film was, and Hirsch seemed less likely than Dano given how small his part is, so both are surprising.
Best Supporting Actress
Who Should Win: I guess Condon. She was a real highlight of her film.
Who Will Win: As improbable as it seems, Bassett is poised to win for a Marvel movie. I don’t get it but I don’t think she has any competition currently.
Surprises: Hsu was not certain, but seems obvious in retrospect given their love for the film.
It seems like after a slew of years with small tallies for Best Picture winners, EEAAO may reverse that trend and pick up a healthy number of wins. It’ll be interesting to see if anything rises to challenge it now that it is the undeniable frontrunner.
Nomination Tally
- So glad they went back to a simple, in person nomination announcement. After the terrible “show” they put on last year this was a refreshing return to form.
- There were a few surprises, but overall things pretty much shook out as expected. No film got significantly more or less love than we were thinking.
- Two films each got 4 acting nominations a piece, and both those films had double nominees in a single category (Everything Everywhere and Banshees). This continues what I see as a worrying trend of voters not looking far beyond the major Best Picture nominees for their acting categories.
- People I’m most excited to see get their first nominations: Jamie Lee Curtis, Colin Farrell, Barry Keoghan, Bill Nighy, and Brian Tyree Henry. All great actors who deserve this moment in the sun.
- Do voters take Spielberg for granted? On the one hand, he got three more nominations, but on the other hand he might not win any for arguably his best film in over two decades.
Best Picture
Who Should Win: My vote is with The Fabelmans, but Tár would be just as good.
Who Will Win: It seemed improbable almost a year ago when it was released, but Everything Everywhere is both the nomination leader and our frontrunner.
Surprises: Women Talking seemed like it had died on the vine (what a terrible release that has had), so the last minute inclusion was a surprise. But overall this was largely what we expected.
Best Director
Who Should Win: My heart is with Spielberg here, he really should have more wins. But Field may have achieved something even more substantial with his film.
Who Will Win: Spielberg has been the assumed favorite for so long, but at this point he’d likely be the only win for his film. That is very, very rare for a film to only win Director and nothing else, and the fact it happened last year with Jane Campion makes me think it is even less likely this year. Which benefits the Daniels.
Surprises: Östlund was not the most obvious choice here, but they lately have loved foreign directors in this branch so he makes sense. I was pretty sure Berger would get in for the overperforming All Quiet, but thankfully he was ignored.
Best Actor
Who Should Win: With the caveat that I love Nighy and would be hoping for a win for him some day, of the ones I saw it was easily Farrell. He displays such a range of emotions in his film, he really should win for this.
Who Will Win: So look, Fraser has long been presumed to be a frontrunner here, but he has a big hurdle in front of his. It is incredibly rare for an actor to win this category specifically without a corresponding Best Picture nomination. Since The Whale was thought to likely be nominated for Picture but wasn’t, it says to me that support is thinner than expected. So who benefits? Butler. Voters love biopic performances, and they love to put their stamp on a new talent. So I think he sails to victory here.
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
- Tár
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Triangle of Sadness
- Women Talking
Who Should Win: My vote is with The Fabelmans, but Tár would be just as good.
Who Will Win: It seemed improbable almost a year ago when it was released, but Everything Everywhere is both the nomination leader and our frontrunner.
Surprises: Women Talking seemed like it had died on the vine (what a terrible release that has had), so the last minute inclusion was a surprise. But overall this was largely what we expected.
Best Director
- Todd Field - Tár
- Khan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Maetin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
- Ruben Östlund - Triangle of Sadness
- Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
Who Should Win: My heart is with Spielberg here, he really should have more wins. But Field may have achieved something even more substantial with his film.
Who Will Win: Spielberg has been the assumed favorite for so long, but at this point he’d likely be the only win for his film. That is very, very rare for a film to only win Director and nothing else, and the fact it happened last year with Jane Campion makes me think it is even less likely this year. Which benefits the Daniels.
Surprises: Östlund was not the most obvious choice here, but they lately have loved foreign directors in this branch so he makes sense. I was pretty sure Berger would get in for the overperforming All Quiet, but thankfully he was ignored.
Best Actor
- Austin Butler - Elvis
- Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brendan Fraser - The Whale
- Paul Mescal - Aftersun
- Bill Nighy - Living
Who Should Win: With the caveat that I love Nighy and would be hoping for a win for him some day, of the ones I saw it was easily Farrell. He displays such a range of emotions in his film, he really should win for this.
Who Will Win: So look, Fraser has long been presumed to be a frontrunner here, but he has a big hurdle in front of his. It is incredibly rare for an actor to win this category specifically without a corresponding Best Picture nomination. Since The Whale was thought to likely be nominated for Picture but wasn’t, it says to me that support is thinner than expected. So who benefits? Butler. Voters love biopic performances, and they love to put their stamp on a new talent. So I think he sails to victory here.
Surprises: Mescal was not at all certain given how small the film was and how new he is, but he rightly got in over Tom Cruise and Adam Sandler, the other men thought to stand a chance.
Best Actress
- Cate Blancett - Tár
- Anna de Armas - Blonde
- Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie
- Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
- Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Should Win: Blancett. She is on another level. I also loved Williams, but consider her Supporting.
Who Will Win: Can Blanchett really win her third? I didn’t think it was likely, but her film overperformed today so they must like the film. But I really think Yeoh has a shot still here. Third wins are very rare.
Surprises: A lot! Riseborough, de Armas, and even Williams seemed unsure. No Danielle Deadwyler is a genuine shock, and so is Viola Davis to a lesser extent. Probably the most surprises in a single category.
Best Supporting Actor
- Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway
- Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
- Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
- Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywehre All at Once
Who Should Win: My pick here was snubbed (Paul Dano) so I have to go with Quan. A standout in his film and a great comeback narrative.
Who Will Win: Quan. The most locked winner of the night.
Surprises: Henry was a surprise given how small his film was, and Hirsch seemed less likely than Dano given how small his part is, so both are surprising.
Best Supporting Actress
- Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Hong Chau - The Whale
- Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
- Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Should Win: I guess Condon. She was a real highlight of her film.
Who Will Win: As improbable as it seems, Bassett is poised to win for a Marvel movie. I don’t get it but I don’t think she has any competition currently.
Surprises: Hsu was not certain, but seems obvious in retrospect given their love for the film.
It seems like after a slew of years with small tallies for Best Picture winners, EEAAO may reverse that trend and pick up a healthy number of wins. It’ll be interesting to see if anything rises to challenge it now that it is the undeniable frontrunner.
Nomination Tally
Everything Everywhere All at Once - 11
All Quiet on the Western Front - 9
The Banshees of Inisherin - 9
Elvis - 8
The Fabelmans - 7
Tár - 6
Top Gun: Maverick - 6
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - 5
Avatar: The Way of Water - 4
Triangle of Sadness - 3
Babylon - 3
The Batman - 3
The Whale - 3
Living - 2
Women Talking - 2
