Oscars 2015, or (The Unexpected Sweep of Alejandro Innaritu)

So after so much anticipation, Birdman won four Oscars, including three for Alejandro G. Innaruito. The Academy decided not to spread the wealth around, instead giving Alejandro G. Inaritu every Oscar he was up for. Considering he seems like a threat for numerous Oscars again next year (The Reverent), it's a shame neither Wes Anderson or Richard Linklater could win one Oscar.

Overall I was happy with many wins. Whiplash winning 3 Oscars was a delight, even if it meant I ended up at 18/24 correct in my predictions. For a while it seemed like I might set a record for my predictions, but Birdman's streak at the end prevented that.

Birdman seems like an especially weird Best Picture winner, but Boyhood seemed equally weird. Glad we got such a unique winner, regardless of my preference. Next year has to go back to business as usual, so I'll cherish the unpredictability of 2015, even if it was at the expense of my favorite films.

• All 8 Best Picture nominees won an Oscar. That has to be a first in Oscar history after the Best Picture lineup change.
• The "Glory" win was quite nice. David Oyelowo crying was a touching surprise. Chris Pine crying, however, was just amazing. Glad to see a song move people so.
• Neil Patrick Harris wins the award for most appearances during the show by a host. He never disappeared, even for a segment. That said, he wasn't very good. Like, at all, He seemed like he serviced the show as best he could, but added nothing. Too bad, as he could have been quite good with the right producers.
• Speaking of which, this is the third year in a row with the same producers, Enough, They aren't very good, and their annual tributes to musicals are getting old. I hope we move on next year.
• This feels like one of the more forgettable Oscar shows. Too bad, as there were a number of great wins (Patty Arquette calling for wage equality among them).

I enjoyed the show, even if I didn't agree with some winners. I know I'll never get a year that lines up with my preferences, so 2014 was a satisfying year in its own way. I'm not sure if Richard Linklater gets another shot at awards, but I'm glad he came as close as he did.

Oscar Predictions: 2015

The Oscar season is almost over and, for the third year in a row, feels a little uncertain in how it will shake out in some key categories, namely Best Picture. As an Oscar watcher, it's always most fun when there isn't a juggernaut steamrolling all year, so this has been a fun one to watch. Bonus points to the fact that the two films most likely to win Picture are two of my favorites of the year. Such a rarity! So, without further ado, let's get into my final Oscar predictions for 2015!

Best Picture

• American Sniper
• Birdman
• Boyhood
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• The Imitation Game
• Selma
• The Theory of Everything
• Whiplash

What a few weeks ago seemed like a lock for Boyhood now seems to be heading in a new direction. Birdman has dominated every one of the industry precursor awards, leading me to believe that it is in fact the one to beat. Boyhood is still hot on its tails, having won numerous Critics awards, the Golden Globe, and the Bafta. And yet I can't help put wonder about both The Grand Budapest Hotel and American Sniper. Budapest is going to be the leader in win total come Oscar night, and it's one of the most easily watchable of the bunch. Might it end up high enough on enough ballets to sneak in if the frontrunners split votes? And then there's Sniper, which is far and away the biggest moneymaker in the lineup. History has shown that for over a decade the Oscars have alternated between a blockbuster and a critics darling every year, without fail, and this year we're due for a blockbuster. In the end, I'm just certain enough to call it for Birdman, but I feel like this could still be a tight race - tighter than many are expecting.

Will Win: Birdman
Runner-Up: Boyhood
If I Had A Ballot: Whiplash

Best Director

• Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Alejandro G. Inarritu - Birdman
• Richard Linklater - Boyhood
• Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher
• Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game

Even harder than Best Picture, Best Director seems liked a true race to the very end. The last two years, when the races were equally tight for Picture, we saw the very rare split between Picture and Director. Could this be the third year in a row? I think yes. Maybe. It comes down to Linklater and Inarritu here, and they are two very different directors. Inarritu's work is incredibly technical (single take film!), while Linklater's is more epic in scale (12 year film shoot!). My head says there can't be yet another split and that Inarritu will get this, but I have to go with my heart. Linklater wins this by the narrowest of margins as they spread the wealth around just a bit.

Will Win: Richard Linklater
Runner-Up:  Inarritu
If I Had A Ballot: Linklater

Best Actor

• Steve Carell - Foxcatcher
• Bradley Cooper - American Sniper
• Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
• Michael Keaton - Birdman
• Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything

You would think that if Birdman is going to win Best Picture that it would also win for the actor who is on screen nearly the entire time - Michael Keaton. Indeed, Keaton is still a threat, but it seems like the stars have aligned for young Eddie Redmayne. Redmayne has two big things in his favor: portraying a real figure and portraying a handicap. Those two combined may well give him the momentum needed to take this away from Keaton. It's the one acting race with any real suspense, so if we see any acting surprises on the night, it's here.

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne
Runner-Up: Michael Keaton
If I Had A Ballot: Keaton

Best Actress

• Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night
• Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
• Julianne Moore - Still Alice
• Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
• Reese Witherspoon - Wild

A couple factors all came together to make this a lock for Julianne Moore. This is her fifth nomination without a win, her closest competitor for the win already has an Oscar, and there's the general sense that she should have already won by now. So we get another in a long tradition of actors winning their Oscar for a film no one will ever really associate with their best roles (see Jeff Bridges, Al Pacino, Kate Winslet). Still, it's hard to fault voters for wanting to give it to her. Reese Witherspoon might have had a shot if Moore hadn't crashed the party late in the season, but alas, it wasn't meant to be.

Will Win: Julianne Moore
Runner-Up: Reese Witherspoon
If I Had A Ballot: Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor

• Robert Duvall - The Judge
• Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
• Edward Norton - Birdman
• Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
• JK Simmons - Whiplash

Another easy one to call, JK Simmons nabs this with ease. While his performance is great, it helps that he's worked as a character actor for years, making him a lot of friends along the way. Now that he has a role worthy of his talents, he should have no difficulty winning. His only competition is Edward Norton, who is another one of those guys you would think would already have an Oscar. In addition, he's very memorable in the presumptive Picture winner, so he has a leg in this race. But the stories of how difficult he can be to work with certainly hasn't won him a lot of friends in the industry, meaning Simmons get this.

Will Win: JK Simmons
Runner-Up: Edward Norton
If I Had A Ballot: Simmons

Best Supporting Actress

• Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
• Laura Dern - Wild
• Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
• Emma Stone - Birdman
• Meryl Streep - Into the Woods

If Boyhood ends up only winning one Oscar this weekend, it will be this one. Patricia Arquette has firmed up her lead in this race and has become the face of the beloved film in awards circles. No one really seems to have stepped up to challenge her, and I suspect she'll get this with little suspense. I honestly don't know who would even be a runner-up. Streep maybe? She seems to be having such fun with the role that she might get some votes. Not enough to steal away a win from Arquette though.

Will Win: Patricia Arquette
Runner-Up: Meryl Streep
If I Had A Ballot: Arquette

Best Adapted Screenplay

• American Sniper
• The Imitation Game
• Inherent Vice
• The Theory of Everything
• Whiplash

It is often in the screenplay categories that we get to see some original thoughts (see Inherent Vice as a nominee this year for example). In that spirit, Whiplash might have a shot here. It's a huge crowd-pleaser and would be a fitting coronation for the young talent behind the film, Damien Chazelle. That said, the safe bet right now is still The Imitation Game. It is the classier choice, and it still has the air of a potential Best Picture winner behind it. Still, this could be a surprise category of the night. Or it could just go to The Theory of Everything, confusing everyone.

Will Win: The Imitation Game
Runner-Up: Whiplash
If I Had A Ballot: Whiplash (although it isn't really adapted from anything. Weird, those Academy rules are...)

Best Original Screenplay

• Birdman
• Boyhood
• Foxcatcher
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Nightcrawler

This has to be the most difficult category to predict this year, and also perhaps the biggest bellwether as to where the night will go. It's between three films: Birdman, Boyhood, and Budapest (AKA the three most likely Picture winners). I'm getting the feeling that they want to spread the wealth between the three masterminds behind the films (Inarritu, Linklater, and Wes Anderson). Since the other two will win Oscars based on my predictions for Picture and Director, I suspect Anderson gets his first Oscar for Budapest. It helps that the film just feels the most writerly of the bunch. It could also quite easily go to Birdman if the film begins to sweep. Really, if any of the three win it could mean a film is sweeping, or it's getting a token prize. We'll have to read the other tea leaves as the night progresses to know for sure.

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Runner-Up: Birdman

If I Had A Ballot: Nightcrawler

Best Cinematography

• Birdman
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Ida
• Mr. Turner
• Unbroken

An easy one to call, and another one to add to the Birdman tally as it heads towards the big prize. Birdman is certainly an achievement in Cinematography, and it will be hard to deny the film this award. Emmanuel Lubezki, who won last year for Gravity, took the long takes he's been known for and followed them to their logical conclusion. That said, sometimes voters mix up best with prettiest, in which case Mr. Turner or Unbroken might win. If Budapest somehow wins this, though, then it will be a huge sign that it's marching towards an unexpected sweep.

Will Win: Birdman
Runner-Up: Mr. Turner
If I Had A Ballot: Birdman

Best Costumes

• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Inherent Vice
• Into the Woods
• Mr. Turner
• Maleficent

The steamroller that is The Grand Budapest Hotel will begin here in the craft categories. It's weird that Wes Anderson films have never been recognized for their craft before, and now it seems like this film is going to win them all. There's a chance that Into the Woods wins for its fantastical designs, but I think this one is a pretty safe bet.

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Runner-Up: Into the Woods
If I Had A Ballot: The Grand Budapest Hotel 

Best Editing

• American Sniper
• Boyhood
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• The Imitation Game
• Whiplash

This is one of the tough ones. I can see it going three different ways: Boyhood for its achievement in cutting 12 years of footage, Whiplash for the sheer amount of precision editing, and American Sniper because they like action films here. Even the other two nominees have strong points in their favor. Really, this category is just an abundance of riches. I'm going to give it to Boyhood by a hair, simply because if it does have a shot at Best Picture then this should be an easy win for the film. Whiplash, though, just seems like such a potential upset here. This category could be split so evenly between the five during voting that a real surprise could happen. We'll see soon!

Will Win: Boyhood
Runner-Up: Whiplash
If I Had A Ballot: Whiplash (but even I have a hard time choosing my favorite. I don't envy the voters!)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Foxcatcher
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• The Guardians of the Galaxy

This category has a tendency of going its own way, regardless of the quality of the film. It could come down to a few factors. Budapest seems like the winner here, but the main factor in its favor is a character who is only on screen a few minutes. Foxcatcher has Steve Carell in it the whole film, and Guardians is a smorgasbord of makeup and creature effects. Still, the prestigious one seems most likely, so I think Budapest adds to its awards chest here, with Foxcatcher just behind (although again, Guardians is just as likely)

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Runner-Up: Foxcatcher
If I Had A Ballot: Budapest

Best Score

• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• The Imitation Game
• Interstellar
• Mr. Turner
• The Theory of Everything

Another hard one to call - do they go for the perpetually nominated but never awarded Alexandre Desplat (Imitation Game and Grand Budapest), or do they go for the heart-string tugging Theory of Everything? I think that Budapest has the leg up between the two Desplat nominations, but I think vote splitting hurts him too much. Plus, Budapest has to lose somewhere if it isn't winning Best Picture, right? I think Theory takes it by a nose, but Budapest could still sneak in.

Will Win: The Theory of Everything
Runner-Up: The Grand Budapest Hotel
If I Had A Ballot: Budapest Hotel

Best Song

• Begin Again - "Lost Stars"
• Beyond the Lights - "Grateful"
• Glen Campbell... I'll Be Me - "I'm Not Gonna Miss You"
• The LEGO Movie - "Everything is Awesome"
• Selma - "Glory"

This has to go to Selma, right? After the hubbub about Selma not getting enough nominations, this seems like an easy way to reward the film. It helps that the song is excellent. Still, some people might truly be indifferent to the film, which means there has to be an alternate. I think people who want an alternate to Selma will find it in the Glen Campbell song. It's a documentary, though, so it seems like a weird film to reward in this category (though not unheard of: see An Inconvenient Truth).

Will Win: Selma
Runner-Up: Glen Campbell
If I Had A Ballot: Selma (although I haven't seen either the Glen Campbell film or Beyond the Lights)

Best Production Design

• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• The Imitation Game
• Interstellar
• Into the Woods
• Mr. Turner

Another easy win for Grand Budapest. Feels like I've said that a few times already. Indeed, this seems like the most likely win the film will get on the night. Still, there could be a bit of competition from either The Imitation Game if they like the period setting and want to reward the film somewhere, or from the fantasy sets of Into the Woods. Neither is too likely though.

Will Win: Grand Budapest
Runner-Up: The Imitation Game
If I Had A Ballot: Grand Budapest

Best Sound Editing

• American Sniper
• Birdman
• The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
• Interstellar
• Unbroken

This one seems easy enough. American Sniper is a war film, it's a huge hit, and voters will want to reward it somewhere. Voters often don't know a lot about the sound categories, so they either vote for the loudest film or the one they liked the most. That may give Birdman a chance as well, as this could be an easy win for it if it needs to tally a few craft wins on its way to the big prize. I think Sound Mixing is more likely than Editing though.

Will Win: American Sniper
Runner-Up: Birdman
If I Had A Ballot: American Sniper

Best Sound Mixing

• American Sniper
• Birdman
• Interstellar
• Unbroken
• Whiplash

A bit harder to call than the last one. Smart money says never predict a split in the sound categories, so American Sniper seems likely. That said, I think Whiplash and Birdman are both very strong here. Whiplash is so much about music, and getting the drum beats to match the drumming in the music must have been such a challenge. And Birdman, with its single take structure and occasional diagetic scoring, must have proven very hard to get the sound on, what with the camera constantly moving around the sets. I'm calling it for Sniper out of safety, but I think Whiplash might really have this too.

Will Win: American Sniper
Runner-Up: Whiplash
If I Had A Ballot: Whiplash

Best Visual FX

• Captain America: The Winter Soldier
• Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
• The Guardians of the Galaxy
• Interstellar
• X-Men: Days of Future Past

This seems like a pretty safe bet for Interstellar. They like their Christopher Nolan films in the tech categories. That said, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is the true achievement in the category and should be considered a threat. But if the first film in the franchise couldn't beat Hugo of all films, I think voters are indifferent to this sequel. That means Guardians of the Galaxy, one of the few real populist films nominated for anything this year, will have an outside shot if Interstellar doesn't go over well.

Will Win: Interstellar
Runner-Up: The Guardians of the Galaxy
If I Had A Ballot: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Best Animated Feature

• Big Hero 6
• The Boxtrolls
• How to Train Your Dragon 2
• The Tale of Princess Kaguya
• Song of the Sea

I think with the shock omission of The LEGO Movie in this category, Dragon has an easy path to victory. It was well received, even if it was a box office disappointment. The only competition is Big Hero 6. If The Boxtrolls had been as loved as the last two Laika films, it would seems like the obvious choice. And a side note, how intersting will next year be when we have two Pixar films released in the same year? Hope I'm not jinxing it and they end up being bad...

Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon
Runner-Up: Big Hero 6
If I Had A Vote: I only saw How To Train Your Dragon, so abstain.

Best Documentary

• CITIZENFOUR
• Finding Vivian Maier
• Last Days of Vietnam
• The Salt of the Earth
• Virunga

The consensus here is Citizen. It's timely, and it's important. That said, this category is ripe for an upset, and I think Virunga or maybe Vivian Maier have an outside shot. I wouldn't bet money on them, but they're interesting alternates.

Will Win: CITIZENFOUR
Runner-Up: Virunga
If I Had A Ballot: Only saw Citizen, so abstain.

Best Foreign Film

• Ida
• Leviathan
• Tangerines
• Timbuktu
• Wild Tales

If ever a category was determined to go its own way, it's this one. Far too often voters go with whatever makes them feel good about themselves. I don't know a lot about Tangerines or Timbuktu, so it's possible there's something about them that could lead to a win. But I think it comes down to either the important Ida or the crowd pleasing Wild Tales. I suspect that Ida is more widely seen of the two, so that may give it the edge. But if voters enjoy themselves enough, Wild Tales could be the one. But again, this category is notorious for going against the grain.

Will Win: Ida
Runner-Up: Wild Tales
If I Had A Vote: Ida, although I didn't see the others (really want to see Wild Tales and Leviathan).

And in the shorts I have Feast (Animated), The Phone Call (Live Action), and Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 (Documentary).

Can Birdman really only win Best Picture and Cinematography and nothing else? Seems unlikely. If it does win Picture, expect either of the Sound categories, Director, or Screenplay as well. And I felt like Budapest was a steamroller in the tech categories, but I guess I only predict four wins. This is a spread the love kind of year, so I guess that seems right. Really, I can see so many different results in a number of categories this year, and I can't wait to see how it all shakes out!