Good morning again. Time for another round of Oscar nominations. Fingers crossed for a good batch this year!
- I was a little weary when the show began with a commercial for the Academy Museum, but it quickly righted itself. New president David Rubin had a nice little opening statement. He was well spoken and warm, a nice change from the previous president. Here's hoping that is a good sign of the coming years under his watch.
- The Best Picture lineup is hogging the majority of the nominations this year. If you aren't a Best Picture nominee then it's very unlikely you got a nomination. The top 4 films are taking up 41 of the total nominations this year!
- So, Joker is the nomination leader. Did I miss something with this film? It's so middlebrow and unexceptional. I appreciate they tried something new with a comic book property, but that doesn't mean they were successful with it.
- Netflix seemed like the big bogeyman going into this year, and while they certainly got a lot of nominations today, none of their films feel like a genuine threat for Best Picture. The Irishman is the only one with a shot, but that is feeling exceedingly unlikely as time goes on.
- Things that made me happiest: Rian Johnson finally has an Oscar nomination! The Lighthouse and Ad Astra weren't forgotten! Parasite got the two tech noms I was most hoping for! Little Women overperformed! Tom Hanks is back!
- This was a big year for comeback narratives. A lot of people who haven't been nominated in years or decades showed up: Tom Hanks, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Kathy Bates, Anthony Hopkins, Charlize Theron, Renee Zellweger: none nominated since 2005 or earlier (much earlier in a few cases).
- 1917
- Ford v Ferrari
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Joker
- Little Women
- Marriage Story
- Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
- Parasite
Who Should Win: Parasite easily, but I'd also be happy with Marriage Story and Little Women.
Who Will Win: This is so tough. Joker ticked all the right boxes, but would they really go there? Jojo Rabbit overperformed, and recent years have shown that a Director nomination is less important. 1917 is the big achievement of the year and might be hitting at the right time, but war movies aren't really their thing anymore. And Parasite is the film everyone is rallying around right now, but after last year I'm not willing to go on a limb for a foreign film again until the Academy proves they are actually willing to go there. Ultimately, I'm thinking Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood has the strength to pull this off. It's a film about the industry, but also a period piece so it has the nostalgia factor going for it. Plus, Academy members might be thinking that they're running out of chances to reward Quentin Tarantino and this could be it.
Surprises: Not really. Ford v Ferrari didn't seem like a sure thing but it got in. And Little Women was getting snubbed across the precursors, so it was nice to see it get in. Otherwise, it was as expected.
Best Director
- Bong Joon Ho - Parasite
- Sam Mendes - 1917
- Todd Phillips - Joker
- Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
- Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
Who Should Win: I could see me going for Mendes based on what it is he does in 1917, but with the ones I've seen it is Joon Ho all the way. What an incredible film, and it wouldn't work without his deft tough behind the camera making sure all the tonal shifts feel natural.
Who Will Win: This has truly become a technical achievement award this decade, so Sam Mendes seems likely. But either Joon Ho or Tarantino could be here if their films are the real Best Picture contenders.
Surprises: Todd Phillips was not a sure thing, but given that his film is the nomination leader, he shouldn't have been a surprise. These five seemed pretty secure for a while, give or take Taika Waititi and Greta Gerwig. And after a year with so many incredible films directed by women, how did they come up with such a dude heavy list?
Best Actor
- Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
- Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
- Adam Driver - Marriage Story
- Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
- Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes
Who Should Win: Adam Driver, no contest. What a wonderful performance!
Who Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix? I know he has been steamrolling, but I have such a hard time believing another person will win for playing the Joker, a comic book villain. Add in how prickly Phoenix is and maybe he alienates enough people and Adam Driver can sneak in? But Joker so overperformed with voters that it's clear they love the film, so Phoenix seems assured. I love Phoenix as an actor and am glad he will have an Oscar, but I hate that it's for this film of all things.
Surprises: This was a packed category this year, so any number of people could have been here. Pryce is a surprise, but I'm glad to see him finally get recognition so late in his career, even if it is at the expense of some more worthy performances (Adam Sandler, you deserved better). And Robert De Niro missed here even though his film was one of the nomination leaders. I'm not too surprised, as the performance was mostly reactive and doesn't get more showy until almost 3 hours in, when some voters may have turned it off if they weren't feeling the film by then.
Best Actress
- Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
- Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
- Soairse Ronan - Little Women
- Charlize Theron - Bombshell
- Renee Zellweger - Judy
Who Should Win: Johannson. She has been on a hot streak all decade, deftly balancing arthouse films like Under the Skin with blockbuster fare like the Avengers films. This is among her best performances, and it would be nice if she was recognized for it.
Who Will Win: I guess Zellweger is getting a second Oscar? Much like Rami Malek last year, this feels like voters want to reward the character more than the actor. But Zellweger gave an alienating speech at the Globes last week, so maybe enough voters will realize she already has an Oscar and give it to someone else. Double nominees often have some momentum for a win, so maybe Johansson can capitalize on that her?
Surprises: I guess I shouldn't have bought the hype given the genre, but Lupita Nyong'o for Us started to seem like a real possibility. And Awkwafina seems like she should have been here (but I guess voters just didn't care for The Farewell as it missed every category it seemed likely in).
Best Supporting Actor
- Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
- Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes
- Al Pacino - The Irishman
- Joe Pesci - The Irishman
- Brad Pitt - Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
Who Should Win: I love what Tom Hanks was doing in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. It might be among his best performances and I'm so glad he got over the 20 year hump of being ignored by the Academy.
Who Will Win: Pitt pretty easily. People love him, he's a lot of fun in Hollywood, and he's never won for Acting before. It's a shame he had to compete in Supporting given he is the lead of his film, but he's here so I've made peace with that. I'm glad he will finally win though, regardless.
Surprises: I really though Song Kang Ho was going to get in here. Roma last year threw off my critical senses when it got 2 acting nominations, so I thought it could happen again this year. Instead, Anthony Hopkins got in for a very good performance, but not one I would think should have been nominated.
Best Supporting Actress
- Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell
- Laura Dern - Marriage Story
- Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
- Florence Pugh - Little Women
- Margot Robbie - Bombshell
Who Should Win: Florence Pugh. What a fun, fun, fun performance! And to see it in contrast with her other big performance this year in Midsommar shows the range she has as an actress. I suspect we will see her back again very soon.
Who Will Win: Well, Laura Dern's only competition seemed to be Jennifer Lopez, but she got snubbed, so Dern has this with ease. She is clearly winning everything less due to the performance and all because she is beloved and never won, and this seems like the best chance to finally reward her (She was also in the running to become the Academy President this year, so how weird would that have been to give an Oscar to the sitting President?). If anyone can mount a rally, maybe Johansson? Voters might want to reward her in one of her two nominations, and they clearly loved Jojo but might not be able to reward the film in any of its other categories. But Dern seems pretty safe.
Surprises: Where is Lopez? This is clearly the surprise of the day. I didn't care for the film, but even I have to admit that Lopez should have been here over Kathy Bates (who gives a good performance with one big scene, but she didn't need this).
So, Joker has the most nominations. Can it win? The top 4 films are all hogging so many nominations that it feels like this could be a very split filled year. And with lower tally nominees like Jojo and Parasite clearly beloved by passionate groups, it feels like there could be another genuine race for the big prize. This shortened season seems to have resulted in fewer surprises than normal (less time to see movies means the movies people have had time to see get more attention), but hopefully a few surprises happen on Oscar night.
Nomination Tally
Joker - 11
1917 - 10
The Irishman - 10
Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood - 10
Parasite - 6
Little Women - 6
Jojo Rabbit - 6
Marriage Story - 6
Ford v Ferrari - 4 (Lowest of all Best Pictures)
Bombshell - 3
The Two Popes - 3
Star Wars - Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker - 3
Pain and Glory - 2
Judy - 2
Harriet - 2
Toy Story 4 - 2
Honeyland - 2
