PTA Wins One Oscar After Another

Well that was a great Oscar ceremony, both the show and the winners. As expected, Conan absolutely excelled as host. Now that he had a year under his belt he felt even more loose and relaxed. Here's hoping he can keep coming back for the foreseeable future. The show itself was classy and well produced (minus the inexplicable sound issues that were never resolved the entire show. Great job giving out the Sound Oscar when one of the presenters was inaudible!). And those winners? Well, they mostly got it right.

As expected, Paul Thomas Anderson finally won an Oscar (three of them actually). He has long been overdue, and for him to win for this film was a real great moment. But his film wasn't the only big winner. Sinners still took home four Oscars, and it really felt like either film could win at the last minute. And the most exciting category of the year, Best Actor, truly lived up to the hype. Any one of them could have won, but Michael B. Jordan winning was perhaps the most thrilling possible choice. He knew this was a big moment for him and culture, and he met the moment. I was on the edge of my seat for his entire speech. Once he won SAG he made so much sense at this point in his career to win. The kinds of films he will be able to get made now after this win will be significant, like Denzel in the 90's. I can't wait to see where his career goes now.

Really, there were so few missteps all night. Even wins I wasn't a fan of, like Jesse Buckley, were still great in that I love her as an actress and am glad she has an Oscar. Sean Penn, on the other hand, did not need a third Oscar, and it makes his win over Bill Murray 22 years ago all the more frustrating. If they'd known how often he'd win they could have spread the wealth around. But maybe they felt he needed another one since he may have already melted down the other two and given the gold away. But one win I wasn't mad about was Amy Madigan, who always felt like the right choice in her category, and I'm glad voters agreed. Now hopefully we can finally get her husband a matching trophy.

So overall just a great night. I'd put this show up there with the very best of them, with very minor missteps. I think the current producers understand the weight of a classy and funny show, and they have been meeting that moment consistently these last two years. As we head into the 100th Oscars soon, here's hoping that they continue to walk the right balance of prestige and humor so we can get a truly great 100th anniversary.

Some final thoughts:

• Every year they do something wrong with In Memorium, either a song choice, missing too many people, rushing through, or something else. Not this time. They got it exactly right, give or take a slightly rambling Barbara Streisand monologue. Breaking it out for three specific individuals was a nice touch, although I don't know that Diane Keaton was more deserving that Robert Duvall. But overall it was a great way to do it.
• One area they need to work on is the presenter banter. Most of the presenter moments were borderline awful, with Robert Downey Jr and Chris Evans being maybe the low point of the whole night. Either get better presenters, or better writers, something was off there.
• One presenter who nailed it was Kumail Nanjiani, who handled presenting a tie perfectly. He even made a great off the cuff joke that it was ironic that the Short category would now have to take twice as long.
• Both musical performances were done wonderfully, with the fluid camera movement in "I Lied To You" really emphasizing how cool that moment was in the film. I'm surprised "Golden" came so late in the night given the target audience of that song, but they also had a wonderful performance.
• Matt Berry was a fun, if unusual choice for announcer. I love the way he speaks, but sometimes it felt like he was mocking things, specifically Burger King, who probably weren't too happy to be launching this new "We're sorry" campaign right after Berry seemingly mocked them in how he announced them.
• I went 21/24 this year, among my better years. I got all the Shorts right, which helps. I don't think anyone called that Casting surprise, so that's a very good score. Surprising given how unsure a lot of races felt, but I went with my gut and it paid off.

So can we keep this momentum going for a few more years? Not every year will have as cool of a top two films as this year did, but if we can at least have a show this good again then that is a step in the right direction. 

Final Oscar Predictions 2026

 

This has proven to be a surprisingly exciting year! While One Battle After Another has the statistical advantage going into Sunday, Sinners has made such a run lately that a lot of surprises could happen. And when was the last time three acting categories were this wide open? I'm so excited to see where all this goes. That combined with the overall excellence of the majority of films nominated, as well as the return of Conan O'Brien as the host, and this could be one of the great Oscar ceremonies in memory! 

Best Picture

• Bugonia
•  F1
•  Frankenstein
•  Hamnet
•  Marty Supreme
•  One Battle After Another
•  The Secret Agent
•  Sentimental Value
• Train Dreams

The big question is whether 16 nominations for Sinners is enough of a groundswell to take it to Best Picture? Or will the presumed front-runner remain One Battle After Another all the way to the end? I suspect Sinners has more in common with La La Land, Dune, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Gravity: Best Picture nominees with a lot of love that ultimately win below the line a lot but come up short at the very end. Sinners will possibly be the film with the most wins overall, but I think a sufficient number of voters won't take a vampire movie seriously enough to give it the top prize. But I think we're going to see a lot of people thinking it has a shot until the very end because it's going to keep popping up as a winner throughout the night.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

If I Had A Ballot: One Battle After Another

Best Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
• Ryan Coogler - Sinners
• Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme
• Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value
• Chloe Zhao - Hamnet

The small chance that Sinners takes Best Picture means there is an even smaller chance that Ryan Coogler wins Director. But after DGA, it's clear that Paul Thomas Anderson has his first Director Oscar locked up. And it is a long time coming. He truly is one of the last of the big directors from his generation to get an Oscar. Him winning here opens up the question of which filmmaker is most overdue for an Oscar now. David Fincher? Richard Linklater? Certainly more recent filmmakers like Greta Gerwig and Denis Villenueve are entering that phase, but are still early enough in their careers that they don't have that overdue narrative that PTA has. Curious to see who becomes the next PTA/Nolan/Scorsese where we perpetually ask "when will it be their turn?"

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler

If I Had A Ballot: PTA

Best Actor

• Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme
• Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon
• Michael B. Jordan - Sinners
• Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent

I don't remember the last time I felt that literally any of the five people nominated could win an Acting category, but that's where we're at here. I think all five are running more or less at equal numbers of votes, that a genuine surprise could happen. No one is running away with votes, and no one is failing to get any votes, so I suspect all five actors will be around the 15-25% range of total votes. If that's true, then a small passionate base could swing a contender thought out of the race into the win.

 

Each actor has a legitimate case here. Timothee Chalmet was the front runner all season, until he started getting people mad at his campaign once nominations came in, resulting in him not winning BAFTA or SAG. Marty Supreme has seriously cooled in passion, which means he could miss yet again in spite of a consensus that he's due this year.

 

Leonardo DiCaprio is the lead of the likely Best Picture winner, he is playing a bit against type, and his character is very likable. He seems like someone who could win a second Oscar, so why not for this film? But he hasn't won anywhere for this film, so if he wins it's because of what I'm talking about above, votes are so evenly split that if enough people voting down the line for One Battle put him in first place, he will win.

 

Ethan Hawke has been considered the fifth place slot all season, and yet he has almost the most going for him. This is his fifth nomination with no win, making him seriously due. He just had an incredible year between film and TV. He's basically Hollywood royalty at this point, having been around for forty-plus years. And people like him. I've been seriously considering calling an upset for him all season, but the fact he's the only one not in a Best Picture nominee works against him, as less people might see his film.

 

Michael B. Jordan is someone I was seriously worried would be snubbed on Oscar nomination morning. I never thought he was a lock. And yet, once he did get the nomination, he has surged and may in fact be the new front runner. Since no one here took BAFTA, he is the leader going into Sunday because he won SAG. And while he is "young," he is older then you'd think, nearly 40 years old, which is about the age when DiCaprio won a decade ago. So he's at the exact right moment in his career to win an Oscar, should Sinners love boost him.

 

Wagner Moura is in a foreign film, which is a hurdle, but he's also the one guy who has run a classic campaign all season. He has been everywhere, meeting voters, doing interviews, and charming everyone. If his film was in English, I'd say he has this in the bag. But his performance is also the most internal, least showy, which might hurt him. But he's also been working in Hollywood films for a long time and has worked with a lot of people, so he might have enough support from people who know him to help him win.

 

So, where does that leave us? I think Chalamet might be out, shockingly. I'm so tempted to say DiCaprio because of down ballot voting. But I think the same thing will help Michael B. Jordan with Sinners, and his win at SAG was at the exact right moment to affect votes for the Oscar. So while I long thought him least likely, I'm now calling it for him by a very narrow margin. But I really won't be surprise if anyone wins here, it's that close! 

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan

Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio

If I Had A Ballot: Timothee Chalamet

Best Actress

• Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
• Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
• Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue
• Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value
• Emma Stone - Bugonia

The only easy Acting category of the night. Buckley has seemingly had this locked up all season. As the one place Hamnet seems likely to win an Oscar, she has little to worry about. Rose Byrne won all the critics prizes, but her film is much more of a critics film than Hamnet is. No one else really has even entered the conversation. Buckley is a great Actress, and I'm happy to see her win, even if it's for a film I don't like.

Will Win: Jessie Buckley

Runner-Up: Rose Byrne

If I Had A Ballot: Byrne. Maybe my favorite single performance in a film this year?

Best Supporting Actor

• Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another
• Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein
• Delroy Lindo - Sinners
• Sean Penn - One Battle After Another
• Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value

The easiest (?) of the three up in the air Acting categories, I think we can eliminate two people right away. While Benicio was winning all the critics prizes, he has had no momentum since then and reminds me of Willem Dafoe from a few years ago, who won everything in sight until the industry started weighing in. And Jacob Elordi has no real shot. His film is divisive, and he is so early in his career that a win at this point would be absurd. So that leaves three people. The logic is Sean Penn gets his third Oscar this year for his villain performance in a presumptive Best Picture winner. He won both SAG and BAFTA, the two key precursors here. But because winning three is very rare, and because he is viewed as a very difficult person, he may end up losing anyway. Stellan was the assumed winner all year, but maybe they've cooled on him (or were never as hot as we thought), which leave the total wildcard of Delroy Lindo. He has the showiest performance in Sinners and is well loved, widely considered a major snub in 2020 for Da 5 Bloods. So can he win? I think he has a shot, but I'm going to go with consensus and say Penn inexplicably becomes a three time winner. But a surprise is certainly possible.

Will Win: Sean Penn

Runner-Up: Delroy Lindo

If I Had A Ballot: Benicio Del Toro

Best Supporting Actress

• Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value
• Amy Madigan - Weapons
• Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners
• Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another

Another one where a lot of possibilities can occur. I think the Sentimental Value women cancel each other out, which leaves the other three women. Wunmi won BAFTA, but she never made sense as a winner given the size and shape of her performance, and I think she won because she is British. So who has a better shot: Amy or Teyana? If One Battle is sweeping and they need to give it an Acting win and Sean Penn isn't it, then Teyana. But I think Amy has two things in her favor: she has a comeback narrative after decades of work, and her role is the thing you remember about her film, while Teyana is one of a dozen things you might remember from hers. And Weapons builds to her and then is all about her, while One Battle starts with Teyana and then loses her for over two hours. So Amy will win for her showstopping role, barring a real One Battle sweep.

Will Win: Amy Madigan

Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor

If I Had A Ballot: Madigan

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Bugonia
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• One Battle After Another
• Train Dreams

Whatever else happens, this is a lock for One Battle After Another. No other film really has much momentum here, maybe Hamnet if they actually like it more than we thought. But PTA has this one locked up even more than Director.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

If I Had A Ballot: OBAA

Best Original Screenplay

• Blue Moon
• It Was Just An Accident
• Marty Supreme
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners

I really thought this would be more of a battle than it is looking. Sinners is looking for a win for Ryan Coogler somewhere, and this is likely the place. I really thought Sentimental Value might take this as it feels more like a Screenplay film, but Sinners has proven to be a real frontrunner. With their 16 nominations, I expect it will win in a lot of places, even if Picture isn't in the cards.

Will Win: Sinners

Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

If I Had A Ballot: Sentimental Value

Best Casting

• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sinners

The best Casting this year was Marty Supreme and The Secret Agent, but the nomination is the win for both those films. The likely winner will come down to either the ensemble of Sinners or the ensemble of One Battle After Another. That said, this is the first year for this category, so it's entirely possible that we just don't know yet what voters are looking for here. So there could be a genuine surprise this time. That said, I think Sinners has enough of an edge (interesting ensemble of familiar faces and new ones, plus the discovery of Miles Caton) that it will win this.

Will Win: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

If I Had A Ballot: Marty Supreme

Best Cinematography

• Frankenstein
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Train Dreams

Well, every indicator is that One Battle After Another will win this, which seems unusual for this category. They normally go for the prettiest or most groundbreaking camerawork. And while those car chases are pretty inventive, this is not a film that really screams "Cinematography!" So if the precursors are wrong, who wins? The obvious choice is Sinners, which is more a traditional pretty film, and it would be a chance to reward a woman here for the first time ever. But Train Dreams also has a stunning visual style to it, which could draw a lot of votes. But enough precursors have gone to One Battle that I have to go with it here, against my better judgement.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners 

If I Had A Ballot: Train Dreams

Best Costumes

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• Sinners

I really want to go against consensus here and pick Sinners. Frankenstein has been sweeping this category, but I think voters will want to reward Sinners wherever they can, and this would be an easy place to do so. The costumes are iconic and actually integral to the characterization of the twins at the center of the film. But with Frankenstein sweeping this category I see little path for a surprise here unfortunately.

Will Win: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

If I Had A Ballot: Frankenstein

Best Editing

• F1
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Sentimental Value

One of a few technicals that One Battle will likely pick up. It is a well paced film that is close to three hours. It's an action movie with an iconic chase scene at the end. It has everything it needs to win this. Only F1 has a real shot to upset, with its car race editing. That has often been enough to win in the past, so it could be here as well if F1 needs to win anywhere.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: F1

If I Had A Ballot: One Battle After Another

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Frankenstein
• Kokuho
• Sinners
• The Smashing Machine
• The Ugly Stepsister

The one sure thing for Frankenstein to win (with a few others also likely but not as assured). Certainly a Frankenstein film is going to be competitive in makeup in any year, but it also doesn't have a ton of competition. Sinners is the most loved film here, but the makeup isn't very noteworthy. And the thing they like the best in this category (transformation) is only really represented by the not well liked Smashing Machine. So this is Frankenstein's to lose.

Will Win: Frankenstein

Runner-up: The Smashing Machine

If I Had A Ballot: Frankenstein

Best Score

• Bugonia
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners

Man, Ludwig Goransson is turning into the new John Williams. Pretty impressive for someone who basically got their start composing for Community. I'm surprised that One Battle didn't get real traction here. That score is very memorable and is cleverly incorporated into the film narrative. Also, Jonny Greenwood needs an Oscar at this point. But Sinners is all about the music, so of course the score will win. And watch out, Goransson has Nolan's The Odyssey coming up this year, so he may win a fourth Oscar next year too!

Will Win: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

If I Had A Ballot: One Battle

Best Original Song

• Diane Warren: Relentless - "Dear Me"
• KPop Demon Hunters - "Golden"
• Sinners - "I Lied to You"
• Train Dreams - "Train Dreams"
• Viva Verdi! - "Sweet Dreams of Joy"

I mean, there's really only one option here, right? I don't remember the last time a song nominated for an Oscar was a big of a cultural phenomenon as "Golden." Probably "Let It Go" from twelve years ago. So no, nothing is beating "Golden" here.

Will Win: "Golden"

Runner-Up: "I Lied to You"

If I Had A Ballot: "Golden"

Best Production Design

• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners

Another category that has an obvious frontrunner, but could be upended by a Sinners sweep. The obvious choice would be Frankenstein, as Guillermo del Toro makes movies that win this award, and this is a clear case of Production Design all around. But if Sinners can win in craft categories, this will surely be one to consider. I don't think it will happen, but would not be surprised if it did, and it would portend a much bigger night for Sinners than many are expecting.
 
Will Win: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Sinners
If I Had A Ballot: Marty Supreme. Give Jack Fisk an Oscar!

Best Sound

• F1
• Frankenstein
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Sirat

This could go two ways. Sinners is a classic music based film that incorporates a lot of music styles and instruments into the narrative, which could be enough given how much voters love the film. But F1 is a race car movie, which often wins this type of award. My gut says F1 wins this out of sheer laziness by the voters. But if Sinners is wins any surprise categories, this is the most obvious one.

Will Win: F1
Runner-Up: Sinners
If I Had A Ballot: One Battle After Another

Best Visual FX

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• F1
• Jurassic World: Rebirth
• The Lost Bus
• Sinners

When there is an Avatar film in competition, predict the Avatar movie. That said, people are down on this franchise finally, so if an entry was ever vulnerable it would be this one. I suspect something like F1 would be the competition here - it is a Best Picture nominee and it has a lot of subtle CGI throughout that voters might appreciate.

Will Win: Avatar
Runner-Up: F1
If I Had A Ballot: Avatar

Best Animated Feature

• Arco
• Elio
• KPop Demon Hunters
• Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
• Zootopia 2

The other easiest category after Song is this one, and for the same reason. KPop Demon Hunters is probably the single most popular film nominated for any Oscar this year. And while this category doesn't always go for the populist choice, it often does. Combined with this being a uniquely weak year for animation, and we have a runaway winner here.

Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: Zootopia 2
If I Had A Ballot: KPop

Best International Feature

• It Was Just An Accident
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sirat
• The Voice of Hind Rajab

A real hard one to call, as two of these films were nominated for Best Picture and are very different films. The Secret Agent is a bit more cerebral, and it will likely appeal to fans of last year's winner, I'm Still Here. But if voters want something more emotional and broadly appealing, then Sentimental Value will win. I think that The Secret Agent is just a little to challenging for the average viewer, so that will hurt it just enough that Sentimental Value wins. If either Supporting category goes to Sentimental Value early on, then it will probably be a lock here. Conversely, if The Secret Agent pulls off a surprise, then lookout for Wagner Moura upsetting later in the very volatile Best Actor lineup.

Will Win: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: The Secret Agent
If I Had A Ballot: I go back and forth between the two films. Both would be wonderful choices. I think I'd go with The Secret Agent, but it changes depending on my mood.

Best Documentary Feature

• The Alabama Solution
• Come See Me In the Good Light
• Cutting Through Rocks
• Mr. Nobody Against Putin
• The Perfect Neighbor

I'm not going to overthink this too much. The Perfect Neighbor has been the presumptive favorite all season: it's timely, engaging, backed by Netflix. The one film that has been rising since nominations were announced is Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Often this category will speak to the moment, but I don't know that Putin is the biggest thing on people's minds right now, so Neighbor wins this. 

Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Runner-Up: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
If I Had A Ballot: The Perfect Neighbor

And for the Shorts, I'm going with All the Empty Rooms (Documentary), Two People Exchanging Saliva (Live Action), and The Girl Who Cried Pearls (Animated).

So I'm mostly going with the obvious choices across the board, with only a few small limbs I'm climbing out on. That feels foolish to me given what an unpredictable year this has been. I suspect Sinners will surprise in some tech categories, possibly Sound, Costumes, or Production Design. And picking all 4 SAG winners is a mistake, I'm aware of that, but who misses? I'm not sure but I can't wait to see who it will be!