- Bennett Miller pulled off the lone director nod in a year of the expanded Best Picture list! Given the nominations Foxcatcher got across the board, it seems especially odd it missed Picture.
- Even more weird given we only had 8 films instead of the usual 9. First time we didn't have 9 since the expansion actually.
- Really dug getting all 24 categories announced instead of the usual 10 or so. It made for lots of ups and downs. After the first half it seemed like Interstellar and American Sniper were riding high. Sniper mostly continued that trend, Interstellar did not.
- "Dick Poop." Snicker.
- Some surprise omissions: Lego Movie for Animated, Life Itself for Documentary, Clint Eastwood for Director, Gone Girl for Screenplay (or anything really. They missed the boat on that one).
- American Sniper
- Birdman
- Boyhood
- The Grand Budapest Hotel
- The Imitation Game
- Selma
- The Theory of Everything
- Whiplash
Who Should Win: Boyhood is the easy pick, although they're all actually pretty good. I'd probably lose Theory of Everything and American Sniper, but neither is awful.
Who Will Win: It's got to be Boyhood, right? It's the presumptive favorite right now, but it seems like such a weird film to win.
Possible Surprises: Argo showed us that having a nomination for Best Director isn't necessarily needed to win Picture, so American Sniper might be cresting at the right moment (and it's the only big hit of the bunch, which the Academy usually goes for after a year of giving it to a smaller film). Grand Budapest sure did get a lot of love, as did Imitation Game, so they might be more obvious alternates.
Best Director
- Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Birdman
- Richard Linklater - Boyhood
- Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher
- Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game
Who Should Win: Linklater easily. Quite an achievement what he pulled off.
Who Will Win: Linklater seems a bit more locked here than Boyhood does for Picture. That said, it feels small and they like to go BIG here, so maybe Inarritu can win.
Possible Surprises: If this is 2010 all over again, then Morten Tyldum is the new Tom Hooper. I still can't get a read on Imitation Game. Is it really the sleeper it should have been?
Best Actor
- Steve Carell - Foxcatcher
- Bradley Cooper - American Sniper
- Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
- Michael Keaton - Birdman
- Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Who Should Win: Keaton. I liked all the performances here save for Carell. Sad that Jake Gyllenhaal missed for Nightcrawler, truly a performance for the ages.
Who Will Win: Tough one! Keaton and Redmayne seem like they're locked in a battle for the win, but I have to wonder if Cooper can't pull this off. He has been nominated 3 years in a row now and this was his passion project. How often, if ever, has someone been nominated 3 years in a row?
Possible Surprises: Cooper for sure. We'll see how the next month shakes down, but I feel like Cooper might be my off the wall, left field prediction come Oscar night...
- Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night
- Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
- Julianne Moore - Still Alice
- Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
- Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Who Should Win: Witherspoon actually. I'm not usually on her wavelength but she was quite good in Wild. I'd be happy with Pike though.
Who Will Win: Moore, quite easily honestly. She's overdue and has no real competition.
Possible Surprises: Nope. This is Moore's. Cool to see Cotillard finally make it back in after being snubbed for a few great performances recently (and if it came at the expense of presumptive nominee Jennifer Aniston, all the better!)
Best Supporting Actor
- Robert Duvall - The Judge
- Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
- Edward Norton - Birdman
- Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
- J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
Who Should Win: Simmons. Such a fun performance!
Who Will Win: Simmons seems to be walking away with this one. He's been in so many movies that he's probably friends with half the voters anyway, so that goodwill should help a lot.
Possible Surprises: If Boyhood has more momentum than we realize, then Hawke (he's a 4 time nominee at this point!). If Birdman gains traction, and if he weren't so prickly, then Norton would have had more of a shot here.
Best Supporting Actress
- Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
- Laura Dern - Wild
- Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
- Emma Stone - Birdman
- Meryl Streep - Into the Woods
Who Should Win: Arquette. Actually, I'm not too blown away by this list. Everyone is fine, few are outstanding.
Who Will Win: Arquette. Another locked category it would seem.
Possible Surprises: Streep is always a threat, so you never know. I'm still surprised Dern made it in. Loved Wild, but Dern was such a small part of the film. Just seems like a weird nomination given all the choices they had. Shrug.
So a pretty good overall list of Pictures this year and a few nice surprises. Most of the acting categories feel tied up already, but I'm not sure we know for sure what wins Picture just yet. I like that in a season, especially since the presumptive favorite is my own favorite of the year. Really I'm just super happy for Richard Linklater. It feels like he's been playing in his own corner of the sandbox for so long and suddenly everyone else realized he's been building these amazing castles for years.
Nominations Tally
Birdman - 9
The Grand Budapest Hotel - 9
The Imitation Game - 8
Boyhood - 6
American Sniper - 6
Whiplash - 5
The Theory of Everything - 5
Interstellar - 5
Foxcatcher - 5
Mr. Turner - 4
Into the Woods - 3
Unbroken - 3
Selma - 2
Wild - 2
Inherent Vice - 2
Ida - 2
Guardians of the Galaxy - 2
