Final Oscar Predictions 2023

We’re headed for not only the most predictable Best Picture winner in years, but a film that stands to win potentially a lot of trophies. It has been a long time since we had a sweeper, and while Everything Everywhere is not my favorite film of the nominees, I would be quite happy with is racking up the most wins since The Artist. I am tired of Best Pictures only winning two or three, so a change this year might be nice. Now that I’ve jinxed it, watch something else win with only two Oscars.

Elsewhere, the acting categories seemed initially sewn up already, as is often the case by season’s end. But at the last minute, it seems like three of the four categories are actually up in the air a bit, which is exciting. As far as the show goes, the Academy is doing everything right so far in the lead up. They have a host again, all categories will be presented live, along with song performances. They even already released a fun clip with Jimmy Kimmel spoofing Top Gun that recognizes that the show won’t be under three hours, so why worry about it. All in all I think this could be a very good ceremony this year after the all time low point last year. Fingers crossed!

Best Picture

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Triangle of Sadness
• Women Talking

The most locked category of the night might actually be Best Picture. That is such a rarity in the last decade. Even when we thought we knew what was winning in past years we thought there was a chance for an upset. This year that is not the case. For Everything Everywhere All at Once to lose at this point would be a statistical impossibility. They won DGA. They won PGA. They won SAG. The only place they lost was at BAFTA, which might be an indication of who the lone challenger could be.

Seemingly out of nowhere, All Quiet on the Western Front has become a juggernaught for Netflix. With nine nominations it feels like a true contender. It fits the role of the classic Oscar Picture winner from decades ago, and if voters fear something as unusual as Everything Everywhere then there is no more traditional film than this one.

Both The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin felt like real possibilities here for a long time, but both now seem like possible films to go home empty handed on Oscar night. It’s funny the way the season shakes out sometimes.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

If I Had A Ballot: Either Tár or The Fabelmans, my two favorite films of the year by far.

Best Director

• Todd Field - Tár
• Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
• Ruben Östlund - Triangle of Sadness
• Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans

It really seemed like even if Everything Everywhere was sweeping, they’d still give this to Spielberg for his most personal film. And maybe he still will win. But support for The Fabelmans has cooled so much that it looks likely to go home empty handed. So The Daniels will take this as part of a rush of goodwill for Everything Everywhere. It now looks like Spielberg, perhaps the greatest to ever do it, will not win another competitive Oscar in his lifetime. But The Daniels are a fun and interesting new talent and it will be exciting to see how they follow this up.

Will Win: Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

Runner-Up: Steven Spielberg

If I Had A Ballot: Probably Spielberg, but I can’t deny that Todd Field achieved something even more remarkable with Tár. It really is a coin toss for me.

Best Actor

• Austin Butler - Elvis 
• Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brendan Fraser - The Whale
• Paul Mescal - Aftersun
• Bill Nighy - Living

Often I wonder if I’m overthinking things when I make a prediction in a heated race. In the case of Best Actor though, I wonder if I’m under thinking it? Austin Butler is playing Elvis, a real person. He sings and dances. He ages through the film and wears makeup and prosthetics. His film is widely seen and a big Best Picture nominee. Voters love all these things, and they also have no real other place to vote for someone playing a real life person (perhaps their favorite type of performance to reward). So of course Butler will win. His only competition is Brendan Fraser (Colin Farrell seemed possible for a while, but he just hasn’t gotten enough traction in the precursors). Fraser is in a film that is very divisive, and it is incredibly rare for an actor to win this specific category in a film not nominated for Best Picture. You have to either be truly overdue to win in that scenario (see Jeff Bridges for the last time it was true), or none of the nominees are from a Best Picture (Forest Whitaker). So while Fraser’s narrative is compelling, he’s also not someone we think of as due for an Oscar. He simply isn’t that kind of actor previously. So for him I think the nomination will be his reward.

Will Win: Austin Butler

Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser

If I Had A Ballot: Colin Farrell

Best Acress

• Cate Blancett - Tár
• Anna de Armas - Blonde
• Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie
• Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
• Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once

I’ve gone back and forth on this so much and I just don’t know where I land. I think inarguably Blanchett is giving an all-timer performance, the kind that normally wins people their Oscar. The problem is, she already has two Oscars, and they’ve done a lot of third Oscars recently, do they really want to do another? But Blanchett feels like an obvious person to win three (of all living two time winners I’d argue only Denzel feels more deserving). But she’s also pretty young, and a third Oscar could easily come down the road. But with no obvious other place to reward a film they clearly really liked, why wouldn’t they reward Tár here?

But there is so much in Michelle Yeoh’s favor that I think she could get it too. She is the lead of a film that is surging, possibly on the precipice of a sweep. How do you not reward her for that? She’s also got the allure of being the first POC to win since Halle Berry, and only the second overall. And she has been winning recently, both SAG and the Independent Spirit Award. If voters think Blanchett is over rewarded, they have a very viable alternative.

So how does it shake out? By a hair I’m going with Blanchett. I think Everything Everywhere is going to miss something it is predicted to win, and the fact that Tár has no other viable shot for an Oscar while Everything Everywhere has a bunch makes me think that’s just enough to push Blanchett to her third Oscar. But I would not be at all surprised if it still goes to Yeoh.

Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh

If I Had A Ballot: Blanchett, one of the great performances of recent years. But I would be delighted by Yeoh or Williams here.

Best Supporting Actor

• Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway
• Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
• Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywehre All at Once

The only acting category that feels like a lock. Ke Huy Quan is the darling of the season and should very easily walk away with this one. People simply cannot resist his story, and no other actor has even really risen up as a possible challenger. If there was an alternative, perhaps Judd Hirsch? He is a legend who never won an Oscar, and it would be one of the only places to reward The Fabelmans as most other nominations for the film feel unlikely to win.

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan

Runner-Up: Judd Hirsch (but really no one)

If I Had A Ballot: Probably Quan, he does give a lovely performance.

Best Supporting Actress

• Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Hong Chau - The Whale
• Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
• Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Potentially the most up in the air race of the night. I think it is close between so many of these women that almost any of them could surprise. The consensus for a while was Angela Bassett after she won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award. But since then she has not won anything major, and I think her continued placement by pundits as the frontrunner is based more on wanting her to win than anything else. I think voters will not want to vote for a Marvel film in an acting category, so she probably won’t win. The race then comes down to the SAG and BAFTA winners: Jamie Lee Curtis and Kerry Condon. Having just rewatched Everything Everywhere, I simply can’t believe Curtis can win here for this role, no matter how much people love her. Hell, of the five women she is the one I most want to be an Oscar winner. But I think Condon has this. Banshees is a really beloved film, and it has no real shot anywhere else at this point to win. Voters will want it to win something, and she is such a strong option. If the industry loves Curtis just too much, or if the film is truly sweeping, then it could still be Curtis. Really, I would even believe Hong Chau could win given how split the vote is here. It will be a nail biter to the end.

Will Win: Kerry Condon

Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis

If I Had A Ballot: Condon or Hsu by a wide margin

Best Adapted Screenplay

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Glass Onion
• Living
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Women Talking

This is another tight race between the film that is exploding at the right moment (All Quiet) and the film that has perhaps the least heat of any nominated this year (Women Talking). I think that All Quiet has all the heat to win this one, but I can’t help but think that voters aren’t going to want to reward it for writing of all things. It is an adaptation of a classic novel, but it changes the book so much that I could see some people scoffing at those changes. Women Talking is coming off a WGA win, and I think voters may want to reward Sarah Polley for her work here, so it might be able to squeak out a victory. My gut says that All Quiet is going to win this, but my head says that Women Talking is the more traditional choice in this category. I am going to take a chance and stick with my gut and say All Quiet can triumph here.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Women Talking

If I Had A Ballot: I guess Glass Onion. It isn’t adapted by my definition, but it is the best of these five.

Best Original Screenplay

• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Triangle of Sadness

In the past decade it has been incredibly rare for a film to win Best Picture, Director, and a Screenplay Oscar (especially if it is the same person winning all three). Parasite did it, Birdman did it, The King’s Speech did it, and The Hurt Locker did it. Can Everything Everywhere do it as well? I feel like it can, but I’m very skeptical. There are a lot of really good options as alternatives here. But that could be the problem. I’d argue Banshees, Fabelmans, and Tár all have big shots at this for different reasons. But because there is no one obvious alternative to Everything Everywhere I think those films will split and it will go to the Best Oicture winner. But I could really see something unexpected happen here if it does prove too hard for a film to win the three big awards. The consensus has been Banshees could benefit, but I think Tár could surprise. They sometimes go for the idiosyncratic film here, and that would be Tár.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Tár

If I Had A Ballot: Tár

Best Cinematography

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
• Elvis
• Empire of Light
• Tár

When Top Gun failed to score a nomination here, it suddenly felt wide open. But as the love for All Quiet has grown, this has felt like a pretty easy win for the film. It has the big vistas, stunning war imagery, and epic scale. The only other film that comes even close is Elvis, but that really doesn’t feel like a Cinematography achievement as much as an achievement in other categories. 

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Elvis 

If I Had A Ballot: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Costumes

• Babylon
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

I suspect this will be one of a few tech categories in which they choose to reward Elvis. There are a lot of costumes, and many are familiar to older voters who lived through the era of Elvis. If voters are feeling like a real sweep for Everything Everywhere then they could win here for the sheer number and variety of costumes on display.

Will Win: Elvis

Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once

If I Had A Ballot: Babylon

Best Editing

• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick

I think it is hard to look at Everything Everywhere and not be impressed by the sheer amount of editing going on. To jump between so many alternative universes coherently feels like a major achievement, or at least one hard to ignore. Often Best Picture and Best Editing go together, and this feels like a case of that. That said, a lot of people are thinking Top Gun will win this, and there is certainly precedent for action blockbusters winning here. The frenetic pace of the flight sequences may help put it over the top, especially if voters think Everything Everywhere feels a little flabby in places.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

If I Had A Ballot: Tár

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis
• The Whale

Voters have really gone for transformations into famous people in this category in the past. So while The Batman and The Whale both have incredibly detailed makeup jobs, it is Elvis that goes the distance in creating famous people. But if voters are turned off by whatever Tom Hanks was turned into in this film (which is a large part of the makeup, to be honest) then perhaps voters will go with The Whale.

Will Win: Elvis

Runner-up: The Whale

If I Had A Ballot: The Batman

Best Score

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Babylon
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans

What an iconic score Babylon has. It’s a movie that knows how to use its music to drive the story forward. But I wonder how much voters really love All Quiet in this category. It is an unusual score for a World War I movie, and yet it feels very modern in that it reminds us of many other scores we hear in big films lately. I think it could sneak in here if people aren’t a fan of Babylon or feel it is too similar to Hurwitz’s previous scores.

Will Win: Babylon

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

If I Had A Ballot: Babylon

Best Original Song

• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - “Lift Me Up”
• Everything Everywhere All at Once - “This is a Life”
• RRR - “Naatu Naatu”
• Tell It Like a Woman - “Applause” 
• Top Gun: Maverick - “Hold My Hand”

There has been a lot of passion for RRR and specifically “Naatu Naatu” all year, and that seems destined to result in an Oscar here. But I can’t help but wonder… Do people like the song, or simply the incredible dance number that accompanies it? Because the dance isn’t what wins, and if voters stop to think about that they might realize that “Naatu Naatu” is not a lot more than a great dance number. If they do make that distinction, what wins? I think it may be “Lift Me Up.” That would potentially be the only place to reward Black Panther, and voters may want to see a pregnant Rihanna up on the stage with an Oscar. I’m not willing to go all the way with that guess but I think it is incredibly likely.

Will Win: “Naatu Naatu”

Runner-Up: “Lift Me Up”

If I Had A Ballot: “Naatu Naatu”

Best Production Design

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Babylon
• Elvis
• The Fabelmans

It’s either Elvis or Babylon here. Do voters prefer recreations of classic Hollywood or recreations of classic music? Elvis is much more liked and seen than Babylon, but voters really love old Hollywood. I think that may be enough to push Babylon to a win, but I would not be surprised at all if it is Elvis.

Will Win: Babylon
Runner-Up: Elvis
If I Had A Ballot: Babylon

Best Sound

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Elvis
• Top Gun: Maverick

For what a big deal it was, and how close some thought it was coming to a Best Picture win at one point, Top Gun may end up with only a real shot here. It’s the category that makes the most sense for the film to win, although they have a very good alternative in All Quiet. If voters had somewhere else to reward Top Gun I might think All Quiet has a real shot, but voters won’t want Maverick to go home empty handed so it wins here.

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick 
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
If I Had A Ballot: The Batman

Best Visual FX

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Top Gun: Maverick

You don’t spend thirteen years perfecting visual effects for your blockbuster sequel to not win this award. With so many films today rushing through the VFX process these days, it is refreshing to see a film actually take time to get the visuals up to par. Avatar will win this award handily, and there is no real competition. If voters are really feeling the love for Top Gun then this is a place it could conceivably win, but it feels like a stretch.

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
If I Had A Ballot: Avatar

Best Animated Feature

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
• Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
• The Sea Beast
• Turning Red

This is an unusual year for the category. No big Disney movie, and the Pixar is a minor one by their standards (to say nothing of their near nadir other film last year). This will instead be a rare year where they go with an auteur dabbling in the medium, akin to the Rango year. Del Toro is a known quantity to voters, and his film is nothing if not defiantly his style. I think it will be enough to get him the win, even if it might not be the most seen of the bunch (usually necessary to win this category). The film I wonder if it can win based on widespread popularity is Puss in Boots. It has proven to be a surprise big hit with a passionate fan base. Could it be a surprise this year? I think it is very possible.

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
If I Had A Ballot: Pinocchio

Best International Film

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Argentina, 1985
• Close
• Eo 
• The Quiet Girl

With how much love All Quiet got on nominations morning, coupled with the big win at BAFTA, there is no question how this category will shake out. It’s rare to have such a large scale film in this category, so that only gives All Quiet more of and edge. If any film stands a chance against it it would be Argentina, 1985. A broadly appealing film about recent history, and it won at the Golden Globes. We sometimes get a surprise where the juggernaut in this category loses, and if that were to happen here I’d look to Argentina for the surprise.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Argentina, 1985
If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, only saw All Quiet and Eo and wasn’t a fan of either.

Best Documentary Feature

• All That Breathes
• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
• Fire of Love
• A House Made of Splinters
• Navalny 

Often when a film feels unusually timely it will win even when there are more obvious choices. An example of this is when The Salesman won International Film over Toni Erdmann. Voters were responding to that film in the context of the recent immigrant ban as much as anything else, which pushed it over the top. All that to say, Navalny feels like the kind of film that could win this, given the insider view it gives on politics in Russia just a year after the Russia-Ukraine War started. The obvious alternative is All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, a beloved documentary by a previous winner, but I think the connection to big current events is enough to give Navalny the win.

Will Win: Navalny
Runner-Up: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
If I Had A Ballot: Navalny

And for the shorts I’m going with My Year of Dicks (Animated), The Elephant Whisperers (Documentary), and Le Pupille (Live Action).

So I predict five Oscars for Everything Everywhere All at Once. It could be six if Actress goes it’s way, but I also have this suspicion that voters will resist a real sweep, so if it picks up a surprise win, something more certain will lose. But maybe I’m wrong and the film gets seven or eight Oscars. No film in recent years has swept the precursors quite like this film has, so anything is possible. Whatever the outcome, I’m excited for the show. I think it could be a really fun night with some interesting winners.