Monday, March 3, 2025

Anora Wins the Hearts of Academy Voters


Well, would you look at that. Anora ended up the big winner of the night, picking up 5 trophies (the same 5 I predicted!). In the face of a strange crop of nominees, voters ended up going all in on the film they liked the best. And while Anora feels like an unusual winner, it also feels like part of a bigger trend within the Academy lately of rewarding more idiosyncratic films that speak to a wide swath of voters, even if they don’t initially appear to be obvious Oscar films.

Sean Baker now ties the record for most wins in one night with 4 Oscars. As I suspected, when presented with a crop of filmmakers with no real career narrative for the win, the guy with the most well liked filmography wins. Audiard and Mangold have had good careers, but both are more journeymen than auteurs. Fargeat was too new and backing a horror film, and Corbet just has no real identity yet as a filmmaker to justify giving him a bunch of Oscars yet. Baker hit the sweet spot of auteur and fresh voice, and he was rewarded.

Mikey Madison was a great “surprise” win, but I knew she had it when Baker won everything else to that point. I could tell voters loved Anora, and the nomination felt like the win for Demi. She was great, but her win still would have been for her narrative and not the performance.

Otherwise, it was a mostly good if languid show. It wasn’t among the very longest shows in Academy history, but it felt like it at times. When Conan came on over two hours into the show to say we were halfway done, I was worried, but they picked up the pace. Truly, I’m never that worried about the length of the show, but I do ask that they keep things spritely and fun. While Conan did an incredible job (let’s get him back ASAP), there were just too many decisions that slowed the show to a halt. Why did half the honorary winners get special tributes tonight with song and dance numbers? Why did some actors get long tributes instead of just clips? The show could have been tightened, although a number of decisions I thought were fresh and rewarding.

Having 5 actors from nominated films come out to fete the craftspeople was a nice change of pace from the way they’ve done it in the past, and gave a more direct line between the praiser and praisee. And the way they’ve done handled Song, by having the songwriters talk about their inspiration was great in a year when the songs just weren’t worth performing. And the In Memorium section was largely well done, save for the baffling music choice.
 
So all in all, a good year for the winners and the show. Fingers crossed Conan can come back again soon, he was a great choice. And clearly we have entered a new era of the Academy that is made up far more by young and foreign voters. What this means for the future is exciting!
 
Some final thoughts:
  • Well, after hyping Hulu as the first time you could watch the Oscars via stream, they really shat the bed. Sounds like a lot of people couldn't log in at the start, and then they cut the feed during the Best Actress presentation. Truly an amateur operation they have over there.
  • I went 20/23 this year. I was so close to a perfect score, only missing Animated film and two Shorts. I went out on a limb in a few categories, and they all paid off. None more so than that Mikey Madison call I made, which I am quite proud of.
  • So what have we learned about the Academy this year? They favor sweeps again after years of shunning them. The last three years have all been sweeps of a sort. They also want to reward an actor from the Best Picture. So if someone from the presumed frontrunner is neck and neck with another actor, they might just be the real winner. And voters like International films. Two Best Picture nominees this year, and Flow also won in the Animated category. I have to assume Fernanda Torres was also close to a win.
  •  Indeed, I think my favorite win in any category of the night was I'm Still Here in International. Not only was it my favorite film nominated in any category, but it was also able to stop Emila Perez from winning another trophy. So win-win!
  • So let's really talk about the James Bond and Quincy Jones tributes. On the one hand, I like them giving more than a cursory nod towards the Honorary Oscar winners. But by only focusing on two of them, it made the other two feel less-than. And they also didn't let the Bond producers speak, while the Quincy Jones one felt almost like an excuse to get yet another Wizard of Oz related song on the show. I'm all for them reintegrating the Honorary winners into the show, but not sure this was the best way to do that.
  • Best joke I read all night: They remembered to include the James Bond franchise in the In Memorium. 

So, another year with a great set of winners and a largely successful show. I hope this trend continues as we march towards what will hopefully be an especially great 100th anniversary show in a few years. This year I'm most excited to see how they handle the new Oscar category: Casting. It's been long overdue, and I'm curious to see what kinds of films get nominated, and if they'll be able to convince ABC to include it on the show given they agreed to not add any more categories to the show when they signed their contract. We shall see!


Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Final Oscar Predictions 2025



Perhaps one of the most unpredictable Oscar seasons in memory is finally coming into focus. All season there has been no clear front runner, only for Anora to finally start taking the lead with guilds. I think partly what made this season so strange was that none of these films were obvious Oscar films. So while Anora makes senses of this bunch to be the big winner, it is also atypical of the larger body of Best Picture winners. But perhaps that speaks to the overall trend of the Oscars of late; what made for a typical Oscar winner in the past is no longer what they value. That is exciting to consider as the type of mainstream crowd pleaser that used to win has become largely extinct the last decade or so.

Best Picture
  • Anora
  • The Brutalist
  • A Complete Unknown
  • Conclave
  • Dune: Part Two
  • Emilia Perez
  • I’m Still Here 
  • Nickel Boys
  • The Substance 
  • Wicked
So I guess it was Anora all along? Emilia Perez has too many detractors, The Brutalist is simply too long and eccentric, Conclave is too old school, A Complete Unknown is the type of film that has never won (music biopic), and Wicked is simply too populist and child friendly. The rest of the field just never had enough momentum. So Anora has taken the lead with wins at WGA, DGA, and PGA. It has always been a well liked critical darling, so it makes sense of this batch of nominees. Could anything surprise in the end? I  guess maybe Conclave as it’s also hard to hate it, even if it has less passion behind it than Anora. But I think Anora has gotten enough wind in its sails to cruise to victory at the very end.

Will Win: Anora
Runner-Up: Conclave
If I Had A Ballot: I’m Still Here 

Best Director
  • Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez
  • Sean Baker - Anora
  • Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
  • Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
  • James Mangold - A Complete Unknown
Of late this award has been the award for technical achievement for a Best Picture runner up. Life of Pi, Gravity, Power of the Dog, The Revenant, Roma. For whatever reason, the Academy has deemed this to be the way to reward technical prowess. The exception is when Best Picture is some kind of technical showcase (Oppenheimer) or it’s just a sweep situation (Nomadland, Everything Everywhere). So where does that leave us? Well, The Brutalist fits pretty neatly into that first camp of technical powerhouse and is likely not to win Picture, so it would make a lot of sense here. But. Brady Corbet has zero cache with the Directors branch, a man who had a small acting career for two decades and then tried his hand at directing. The winners for all those other films I mentioned had titans of the field being rewarded. This year has no titan, but the “closest” to that would be Sean Baker, a man who has been well liked for a while but never in the award conversation. So can Anora win Director? I think so, if only because Corbet has so little narrative as a director. But if there is a split between Picture and Director, then Corbet could still easily win.

Will Win: Sean Baker
Runner-Up: Brady Corbet
If I Had A Ballot: Baker

Best Actor
  • Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
  • Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
  • Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
  • Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
  • Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice
So, how much does SAG matter? Adrien Brody has won everything until he lost SAG. SAG is typically more populist leaning, so Chalamet winning isn’t the biggest surprise. But is it indicative of a change in the winds a week ahead of the Oscars? I suspect not, and Brody will still win, but this certainly made it more interesting. And the more I think about it, the more it feels like Chalamet winning here would be a major moment for the Oscars, possibly giving them some real juice with Gen Z audiences who might otherwise be less than interested in the Oscars.

Will Win: Brody
Runner-Up: Chalamet
If I Had A Ballot: Stan

Best Acress
  • Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
  • Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez
  • Mikey Madison - Anora
  • Demi Moore - The Substance
  • Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here
The hardest call of the night for me. The consensus is Demi Moore will win, and I see the logic. She has had a long career that has gone unrewarded, it’s a “big” performance, and voters are riding high of late on rewarding comebacks for people who were never really Oscar actors (Brenden Fraser, Ke Huy Quan, Jamie Lee Curtis). But are voters really going to vote for the goopy horror performance? Maybe. I could see it. But two other women have a strong narrative. Fernanda Torres gives a powerful performance in a film that voters were likely catching up to as they were voting. Add to that the fact that Hollywood based voters might be busy with the aftermath of the wildfires still and foreign voters will have a higher impact on voting. But what of Mikey Madison, the breakout lead of the likely Best Picture winner? If voters love Anora, isn’t she the heart of that movie? But then so weren’t Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Keaton, and Sally Hawkins in their Best Picture winners? So where does that leave us? 

I think I’m going to go with my gut, which says Demi will miss here and that recent bias towards rewarding an actor in a Best Picture winner (every winner since Parasite has won an acting Oscar) means Madison wins. But maybe I’m overthinking it?

Will Win: Madison
Runner-Up: Moore
If I Had A Ballot: Torres

Best Supporting Actor
  • Yura Borisov - Anora
  • Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
  • Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
  • Guy Pearce - The Brutalist 
  • Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice
Could Edward Norton somehow pull off a surprise here and win? Probably not, but as it’s his fourth nomination and everyone seems to agree that he is surprisingly wonderful in his film, I can’t help but wonder if this is the one acting category that has an upset? I suspect Kieran Culkin has this (rightfully) sewn up, but given his film failed to make the Best Picture cut, I wonder if there is enough wiggle room for Norton to maneuver.

Will Win: Kieran Culkin
Runner-Up: Edward Norton
If I Had A Ballot: Culkin

Best Supporting Actress
  • Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown
  • Ariana Grande - Wicked
  • Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
  • Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
  • Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez
In spite of all the controversy around Karla Sofia Gascon, I think Saldana is still a lock here. For one, she has built a lot of industry goodwill that will be repaid here. Second, there isn’t really an obvious person to benefit from her faltering at the last minute. Sure, there’s a lot of love for Wicked and especially Ariana Grande, but she hasn’t shown any real strength anywhere else, so it’s unlikely she’d pop here suddenly. No, Zoe Saldana will breeze to victory, even if her film is catering at the same time.

Will Win: Zoe Saldana
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande
If I Had A Ballot: Grande. Shocked as I am, she is one of the performances of the year for me.

Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Conclave
  • A Complete Unknown
  • Emilia Perez
  • Nickel Boys
  • Sing Sing
This feels surprisingly uncompetitive. Conclave is pretty safe here, it’s a well liked film with very few other places to reward it. I suppose if the Emilia Perez love was real then it might have a shot here, but I can’t see that happening now after all that’s happened the last few weeks. If there is a real shock I guess Nickel Boys could rally some support from those frustrated it didn’t do better with nominations, but I think it’s pretty clear who is winning here.

Will Win: Conclave
Runner-Up: Emilia Perez 
If I Had A Ballot: Sing Sing

Best Original Screenplay
  • Anora
  • The Brutalist
  • A Real Pain
  • The Substance
  • September 5
If Anora is going to win Best Picture, then this is a must win category. And unlike Adapted, this is a tougher category. A Real Pain has won a number of writing awards this season, and The Substance memorably won this category at Cannes, so both are competitive. But ultimately voters like to vote for their favorite down the line unless there’s a reason not to, and Anora is a classic screenplay winner if I’ve ever seen one. So even if Anora fails to win Beat Picture, I think it will at least win this.

Will Win: Anora
Runner-Up: The Substance
If I Had A Ballot: A Real Pain

Best Cinematography
  • The Brutalist
  • Dune: Part Two
  • Emilia Perez
  • Maria
  • Nosferatu
The big epic of the season has a pretty easy path to victory here. The Brutalist has many striking images and it shot on the defunct VistaVision format, so voters will lap that up. Only Dune has any real shot here, but since they already rewarded Dune here a few years ago they won’t feel the need to again.

Will Win: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
If I Had A Ballot: Dune, pretty easily.

Best Costumes
  • A Complete Unknown 
  • Conclave
  • Gladiator II
  • Nosferatu
  • Wicked
Populist voters will have a few places to reward the big film of the year, Wicked, and this is the most likely one. The costumes are a mix of iconic and recreations of costumes from the classic Oz film. Wicked could walk away with as many as five or six Oscars, but it will at least win one, with this being the most likely one.

Will Win: Wicked
Runner-Up: Nosferatu
If I Had A Ballot: Nosferatu

Best Editing
  • Anora
  • The Brutalist
  • Conclave
  • Emilia Perez
  • Wicked
So can Sean Baker really win four Oscars? I suspect he won’t but where does he lose? He has a strong narrative in Director and Screenplay, and Picture feels locked. So does he miss here? Well… I’m predicting him winning all four Oscars to cover my bases as I could see a surprise in Screenplay or Directing, but I just don’t see an obvious alternative here. I suppose my Emilia Perez blinders could be tricking me into not seeing it as a threat. Conclave seems to be the consensus choice here but I don’t see a lot in that film worth rewarding here, other than it’s vaguely a thriller and voters like that genre here. No, I think voters will go down the line for their favorite film and Anora has enough showy editing to justify a win here.

Will Win: Anora
Runner-Up: Conclave
If I Had A Ballot: Anora

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
  • A Different Man
  • Emilia Perez
  • Nosferatu
  • The Substance
  • Wicked
A surprisingly strong lineup here, but I think The Substance should have no problem winning this one. It’s all about the transformation of its leads, and if Demi is on her way to a win then the makeup is certainly a component of that. They don’t always go for horror related makeup, but in this case it’s kind of undeniable.

Will Win: The Substance
Runner-up: Nosferatu
If I Had A Ballot: A Different Man. I didn’t know the full concept of the film when I saw it and it took me a minute to realize that was Sebastian Stan and not Adam Pearson, so hats off to the impressive makeup on display there.

Best Score
  • The Brutalist
  • Conclave
  • Emilia Perez
  • Wicked
  • The Wild Robot
With Challengers ignored here, there is very little competition for The Brutalist, which has an immediately iconic score. The only film that seems to have any love here is The Wild Robot, which also overperformed in nominations and could conceivably surprise here. Unlikely though.

Will Win: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: The Wild Robot
If I Had A Ballot: The Wild Robot

Best Original Song
  • Elton John: Never Too Late - “Never Too Late”
  • Emilia Perez - “El Mal”
  • Emilia Perez - “Mi Camino”
  • Sing Sing - “Like a Bird”
  • The Six Triple Eight - “The Journey”
I’ve gone back and forth on this one so much. I don’t think the nominated songs from Emilia Perez are good or memorable, and the backlash could affect the film here. On top of that, voters have a chance to finally reward Diane Warren for The Six Triple Eight. Will voters take that opportunity? Ultimately I don’t think so, but I so want to predict it. I suspect “El Mal” will win because clearly voters did like Perez a lot, and it is basically an extension of the Zoe Saldana win, so they’ll feel ok about voting for it in tandem with her. But if ever there was a chance to end this silly Diane Warren thing, it’s this year.

Will Win: “El Mal”
Runner-Up: “The Journey”
If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, this is not a good category this year.

Best Production Design
  • The Brutalist
  • Conclave
  • Dune: Part Two
  • Nosferatu
  • Wicked
I am so torn here. Everyone is predicting Wicked, but my gut is saying that the movie about architecture should win, which is The Brutalist. That said, I also don’t think Wicked has good Production Design and I was very underwhelmed by the design in The Brutalist (I could feel the lack of budget most especially in the production design, for what it’s worth). I also wonder if there is enough of a hit against The Brutalist for the accusations of using AI in relation to the design elements that people might not want to vote for it. So I guess ultimately I’ll go with the consensus for Wicked, but I really do wonder if The Brutalist isn’t the more obvious choice?

Will Win: Wicked
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
If I Had A Ballot: Nosferatu

Best Sound
  • A Complete Unknown
  • Dune: Part Two
  • Emilia Perez
  • Wicked
  • The Wild Robot
All signs point to Dune winning this one, but I can’t help but think one of the musical films could take it. Wicked in particular feels like a real threat. That said, the fact that there are three musical films all competing here means that they will likely split the vote. So while I think the love for Wicked could surprise here, I’ll stick with the unique soundscapes of Dune.

Will Win: Dune
Runner-Up: Wicked
If I Had A Ballot: Dune

Best Visual FX
  • Alien: Romulus
  • Better Man
  • Dune: Part Two
  • The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
  • Wicked
The one place Dune will definitely win this time around, in spite of winning six Oscars with the first film. If anything can challenge it I would guess it’s Planet of the Apes, but these films never win this category for some reason so I doubt they go for the weaker film of the franchise for the win. Perhaps Wicked wins if voters really want to reward it a lot or are truly tired of Dune, but I suspect Dune will win this easily.

Will Win: Dune
Runner-Up: The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
If I Had A Ballot: Dune

Best Animated Feature
  • Flow
  • Inside Out 2
  • Memoirs of a Snail
  • Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
  • The Wild Robot
This has turned into a surprisingly tight race between Flow and The Wild Robot. My gut says that this category will always trend populist unless there is an arthouse icon in play (Miyazaki). So The Wild Robot will be the big winner here. But don’t count out Flow yet, it is clearly an arthouse sensation and could draw votes if people aren’t excited about voting for The Wild Robot.

Will Win: The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Flow
If I Had A Ballot: The Wild Robot

Best International Feature
  • Emilia PĂ©rez
  • Flow
  • The Girl with the Needle
  • I’m Still Here
  • The Seed of the Sacred Fig
I’m going against the grain here and picking I’m Still Here over Emilia Perez. Even though Perez got 13 nominations and seems like a shoe-in here, I’m Still Here also got a Picture nomination so it must also be quite beloved. And I think anyone who was going to watch Perez did so before nominations, while I think a lot of people might have missed I’m Still Here until it got the surprise Picture nomination, so now they’re catching up on it. And it also helps that the film is a much more satisfying film than Perez is. So I think the overall quality of I’m Still Here will help it in the face of the controversy surrounding Perez.

Will Win: I’m Still Here
Runner-Up: Emilia Perez
If I Had A Ballot: I’m Still Here, one of the surprise best films of the year.

Best Documentary Feature
  • Black Box Diaries
  • No Other Land
  • Porcelain War
  • Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
  • Sugarcane
The easiest category of the night. No Other Land has been the big cause this year and has won virtually every Documentary award in existence. It is the most immediately important film of the five, which will help it sail to victory and allow for a big emotional moment in the ceremony. Fascinating that it happens just a year after Jonathan Glazer was booed for sympathizing with Palestine.

Will Win: No Other Land
Runner-Up: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
If I Had A Ballot: Soundtrack. What a thrilling style the film has!

And for the Shorts I’m going with Wander to Wonder (Animated), The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (Live Action), and The Only Girl in the Orchestra (Documentary).

So I went with five wins for Anora, which is a little high. I suspect it will be only three or four, but not sure what falls off. But given the weirdness of this whole season, there could be a lot of surprises. For the first time in ages it feels like a lot of real races are in play, which is always fun.

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

And the Nominees Are… 2025



Welcome back for another year of Oscar Nominations. After a few delays, we finally have our newest batch of nominees.

  • Last year’s nomination announcement was very classy and fun, a throw back to the early aughts. This year was less well done (although at least it was still a live reading of the nominees and not a prerecorded one like they have done lately). Rachel Sennott and Bowen Yang simply are not the right combo for this kind of announcement. 
  • Emilia Perez leads the nominees with 13. I don’t know anyone who even likes this film, who is voting for this film? 
  • A lot of black artists were snubbed despite support most of the season. Denzel Washington, Clarence Maclin, Danielle Deadwyler, RaMell Ross all missed out on very reasonable bids. 
  • So many big sequels to Oscar winners were shunned this year, either completely (Joker: Folie a Deux, Furiosa), or mostly (Gladiator II). Even Dune: Part Two failed to garner nearly as many nominations as was expected.
  • Two foreign films, one English film by way of a French auteur, and a film from a German born director. The Oscars continue to get more and more international with every year.
  • I don’t remember the last year it felt this wide open on who could win Best Picture. Maybe 2015? Maybe we’ll look back in a year and say it was clear what the winner was in retrospect, but unless DGA and PGA both solidify an answer I think we will be in suspense until the night of the ceremony!

Best Picture
  • Anora
  • The Brutalist
  • A Complete Unknown
  • Conclave
  • Dune: Part Two
  • Emilia Perez
  • I’m Still Here
  • Nickel Boys
  • The Substance
  • Wicked
Which Ones I've Seen: All but I’m Still Here.

Who Should Win: I guess Anora? My taste and that of the Academy were pretty different this year (after my top five last year all being nominated), so I am less invested this year. 

Who Will Win: Truly, what a strange year this has been. Since I don’t have to make a final prediction yet, I will just say that A Complete Unknown has completely overperformed by every metric. Eight nominations, including a surprise Supporting Actress and Director nomination. In a year with no clear frontrunner, could an easy to like music biopic take the crown? I’ll take that over Emilia Perez, which scored an absurd 13 nominations and has to be seen as a threat to win at this point.

Surprises: I’m Still Here was not a title I saw popping up here in predictions much. It came at the expense of Sing Simg, a title that for a large part of the year was considered a frontrunner to win this category. Nickel Boys also seemed unlikely in the final stretch to get in, especially when it missed the Cinematogrphy nomination.

Best Director
  • Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez
  • Sean Baker - Anora
  • Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
  • Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
  • James Mangold - A Complete Unknown
Which Ones I've Seen: All of the nominees.

Who Should Win: Another one I’m not very invested in. I’d say Baker is far ahead here for me, but none of these filmmakers are really my speed generally. But Anora is the one great film here so that’s my choice.

Who Will Win: From this far out I still think it could be a surprise. The general sense is that Brady Corbet gets this for the grand scale of his film. But Corbet is such a strange winner, and if a different film starts to take a lead in Best Picture, might its director come along? If Emilia Perez is a real threat for Picture, why wouldn’t Audiard, an actual name in this category, not go along with it?

Surprises: I didn’t think Mangold would make it here, although I have long held the opinion that he will one day win an Oscar as he is the kind of journeyman filmmaker that will likely make a broadly appealing film the Academy loves. He probably won’t win here though. Berger is the surprise snub, as Conclave felt like it had a real shot at Picture and now less so.

Best Actor
  • Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
  • Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
  • Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
  • Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
  • Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice
Which Ones I've Seen: The entire lineup.

Who Should Win: I’m as surprised as anyone that Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump is my choice here. I’ve underrated him since I first saw him a decade plus ago, but this and his Different Man performance really turned me around on him. He has no shot at winning but he really surprised me.

Who Will Win: I think it may just be Chalamet. I suspect enough voters will either feel content that they’ve already rewarded Brody, or won’t be able to make it through The Brutalist, which is enough of a ding that Brody won’t win his second Oscar, paving the way for Chalamet becoming the youngest winner ever in this category.

Surprises: Daniel Craig was on the bubble all season, but having just seen Queer I can see why it was too much of an ask for voters to watch it and nominate him. Hopefully Craig will be back again soon.

Best Actress
  • Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
  • Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez
  • Mikey Madison - Anora
  • Demi Moore - The Substance
  • Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here
Which Ones I've Seen: All but Torres. Sony Pictures Classics is a scourge when it comes to making their films available to be seen by anyone.

Who Should Win: I’d be happy with Madison winning for her star is born performance. But Demi Moore also has a strong narrative and would be a fun, atypical winner.

Who Will Win: The consensus has been forming around Moore, which is bizarre given what the film actually is but makes sense when you consider that the Academy has been enthusiastic about rewarding comeback narratives of late. But the more I hear about Torres the more I think she has a shot as more people see it. She won the Globe for Drama, so she’s right in the mix.

Surprises: Certainly Marianne Jean-Baptiste was in the running for her best of the year performance. Also surprising is that Angelina Jolie and Nicole Kidman, royalty in this category, were both overlooked in the end.

Best Supporting Actor
  • Yura Borisov - Anora
  • Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
  • Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
  • Guy Pearce - The Brutalist 
  • Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice
Which Ones I've Seen: The whole group.

Who Should Win: While I think he’s a lead, Culkin is far and away my pick here. He has a lot of range in his role. I was also surprised by how good Norton is, playing against type as a largely sweet affable folk singer.

Who Will Win: Culkin, in one of the few easy locks of the night. No one else has really come close to him.

Surprises: Strong really didn’t seem likely to me so I guess he’s a surprise. He came at the expense of Clarence Maclin, which is a real shame as he was excellent. And Denzel Washington seemed like such a lock for so long, but the indifference to Gladiator II really killed his chances.

Best Supporting Actress
  • Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown
  • Ariana Grande - Wicked
  • Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
  • Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
  • Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez
Which Ones I've Seen: All five of them.

Who Should Win: Nothing shocks me more this year than how much I enjoyed Wicked, and specifically Ariana Grande in it. She is my clear standout in this group.

Who Will Win: Zoe Saldana has this locked up. She is well liked in the industry, she’s a lead masquerading as Supporting, and she is in the nomination leader. She has this one easily. 

Surprises: Monica Barbaro was not really in the conversation until late, so good on her for storming this category at the last minute. And it may have come at the expense of a career worst performance from Jamie Lee Curtis, so win-win.

Unlike past recent years I have no vested interest in most of these races, so I’m all for some big surprises. Hopefully those surprises don’t include Emilia Perez winning Picture, but otherwise I’m excited to see where the Oscars go in a bunch of categories.

Nomination Tally
Emilia Perez - 13
The Brutalist- 10
Wicked - 10
A Complete Unknown - 8
Conclave - 8
Anora - 6
The Substance - 5
Dune: Part Two - 5
Nosferatu - 4
I’m Still Here - 3
Sing Sing - 3
The Wild Robot - 3
Flow - 2
A Real Pain - 2
Nickel Boys - 2
The Apprentice - 2