Final Oscar Predictions 2025

Perhaps one of the most unpredictable Oscar seasons in memory is finally coming into focus. All season there has been no clear front runner, only for Anora to finally start taking the lead with guilds. I think partly what made this season so strange was that none of these films were obvious Oscar films. So while Anora makes senses of this bunch to be the big winner, it is also atypical of the larger body of Best Picture winners. But perhaps that speaks to the overall trend of the Oscars of late; what made for a typical Oscar winner in the past is no longer what they value. That is exciting to consider as the type of mainstream crowd pleaser that used to win has become largely extinct the last decade or so.

Best Picture

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Perez
• I’m Still Here 
• Nickel Boys
• The Substance 
• Wicked

So I guess it was Anora all along? Emilia Perez has too many detractors, The Brutalist is simply too long and eccentric, Conclave is too old school, A Complete Unknown is the type of film that has never won (music biopic), and Wicked is simply too populist and child friendly. The rest of the field just never had enough momentum. So Anora has taken the lead with wins at WGA, DGA, and PGA. It has always been a well liked critical darling, so it makes sense of this batch of nominees. Could anything surprise in the end? I  guess maybe Conclave as it’s also hard to hate it, even if it has less passion behind it than Anora. But I think Anora has gotten enough wind in its sails to cruise to victory at the very end.

Will Win: Anora

Runner-Up: Conclave

If I Had A Ballot: I’m Still Here 

Best Director

• Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez
• Sean Baker - Anora
• Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
• Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
• James Mangold - A Complete Unknown

Of late this award has been the award for technical achievement for a Best Picture runner up. Life of Pi, Gravity, Power of the Dog, The Revenant, Roma. For whatever reason, the Academy has deemed this to be the way to reward technical prowess. The exception is when Best Picture is some kind of technical showcase (Oppenheimer) or it’s just a sweep situation (Nomadland, Everything Everywhere). So where does that leave us? Well, The Brutalist fits pretty neatly into that first camp of technical powerhouse and is likely not to win Picture, so it would make a lot of sense here. But. Brady Corbet has zero cache with the Directors branch, a man who had a small acting career for two decades and then tried his hand at directing. The winners for all those other films I mentioned had titans of the field being rewarded. This year has no titan, but the “closest” to that would be Sean Baker, a man who has been well liked for a while but never in the award conversation. So can Anora win Director? I think so, if only because Corbet has so little narrative as a director. But if there is a split between Picture and Director, then Corbet could still easily win.

Will Win: Sean Baker

Runner-Up: Brady Corbet

If I Had A Ballot: Baker

Best Actor

• Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
• Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
• Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
• Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
• Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice

So, how much does SAG matter? Adrien Brody has won everything until he lost SAG. SAG is typically more populist leaning, so Chalamet winning isn’t the biggest surprise. But is it indicative of a change in the winds a week ahead of the Oscars? I suspect not, and Brody will still win, but this certainly made it more interesting. And the more I think about it, the more it feels like Chalamet winning here would be a major moment for the Oscars, possibly giving them some real juice with Gen Z audiences who might otherwise be less than interested in the Oscars.

Will Win: Brody

Runner-Up: Chalamet

If I Had A Ballot: Stan

Best Acress

• Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
• Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez
• Mikey Madison - Anora
• Demi Moore - The Substance
• Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here

The hardest call of the night for me. The consensus is Demi Moore will win, and I see the logic. She has had a long career that has gone unrewarded, it’s a “big” performance, and voters are riding high of late on rewarding comebacks for people who were never really Oscar actors (Brenden Fraser, Ke Huy Quan, Jamie Lee Curtis). But are voters really going to vote for the goopy horror performance? Maybe. I could see it. But two other women have a strong narrative. Fernanda Torres gives a powerful performance in a film that voters were likely catching up to as they were voting. Add to that the fact that Hollywood based voters might be busy with the aftermath of the wildfires still and foreign voters will have a higher impact on voting. But what of Mikey Madison, the breakout lead of the likely Best Picture winner? If voters love Anora, isn’t she the heart of that movie? But then so weren’t Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Keaton, and Sally Hawkins in their Best Picture winners? So where does that leave us? 

I think I’m going to go with my gut, which says Demi will miss here and that recent bias towards rewarding an actor in a Best Picture winner (every winner since Parasite has won an acting Oscar) means Madison wins. But maybe I’m overthinking it?

Will Win: Madison

Runner-Up: Moore

If I Had A Ballot: Torres

Best Supporting Actor

• Yura Borisov - Anora
• Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
• Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
• Guy Pearce - The Brutalist 
• Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice

Could Edward Norton somehow pull off a surprise here and win? Probably not, but as it’s his fourth nomination and everyone seems to agree that he is surprisingly wonderful in his film, I can’t help but wonder if this is the one acting category that has an upset? I suspect Kieran Culkin has this (rightfully) sewn up, but given his film failed to make the Best Picture cut, I wonder if there is enough wiggle room for Norton to maneuver.

Will Win: Kieran Culkin

Runner-Up: Edward Norton

If I Had A Ballot: Culkin

Best Supporting Actress

• Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown
• Ariana Grande - Wicked
• Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
• Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
• Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez

In spite of all the controversy around Karla Sofia Gascon, I think Saldana is still a lock here. For one, she has built a lot of industry goodwill that will be repaid here. Second, there isn’t really an obvious person to benefit from her faltering at the last minute. Sure, there’s a lot of love for Wicked and especially Ariana Grande, but she hasn’t shown any real strength anywhere else, so it’s unlikely she’d pop here suddenly. No, Zoe Saldana will breeze to victory, even if her film is catering at the same time.

Will Win: Zoe Saldana

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande

If I Had A Ballot: Grande. Shocked as I am, she is one of the performances of the year for me.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Conclave
• A Complete Unknown
• Emilia Perez
• Nickel Boys
• Sing Sing

This feels surprisingly uncompetitive. Conclave is pretty safe here, it’s a well liked film with very few other places to reward it. I suppose if the Emilia Perez love was real then it might have a shot here, but I can’t see that happening now after all that’s happened the last few weeks. If there is a real shock I guess Nickel Boys could rally some support from those frustrated it didn’t do better with nominations, but I think it’s pretty clear who is winning here.

Will Win: Conclave

Runner-Up: Emilia Perez 

If I Had A Ballot: Sing Sing

Best Original Screenplay

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Real Pain
• The Substance
• September 5

If Anora is going to win Best Picture, then this is a must win category. And unlike Adapted, this is a tougher category. A Real Pain has won a number of writing awards this season, and The Substance memorably won this category at Cannes, so both are competitive. But ultimately voters like to vote for their favorite down the line unless there’s a reason not to, and Anora is a classic screenplay winner if I’ve ever seen one. So even if Anora fails to win Beat Picture, I think it will at least win this.

Will Win: Anora

Runner-Up: The Substance

If I Had A Ballot: A Real Pain

Best Cinematography

• The Brutalist
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Perez
• Maria
• Nosferatu

The big epic of the season has a pretty easy path to victory here. The Brutalist has many striking images and it shot on the defunct VistaVision format, so voters will lap that up. Only Dune has any real shot here, but since they already rewarded Dune here a few years ago they won’t feel the need to again.

Will Win: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

If I Had A Ballot: Dune, pretty easily.

Best Costumes

• A Complete Unknown 
• Conclave
• Gladiator II
• Nosferatu
• Wicked

Populist voters will have a few places to reward the big film of the year, Wicked, and this is the most likely one. The costumes are a mix of iconic and recreations of costumes from the classic Oz film. Wicked could walk away with as many as five or six Oscars, but it will at least win one, with this being the most likely one.

Will Win: Wicked

Runner-Up: Nosferatu

If I Had A Ballot: Nosferatu

Best Editing

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Emilia Perez
• Wicked

So can Sean Baker really win four Oscars? I suspect he won’t but where does he lose? He has a strong narrative in Director and Screenplay, and Picture feels locked. So does he miss here? Well… I’m predicting him winning all four Oscars to cover my bases as I could see a surprise in Screenplay or Directing, but I just don’t see an obvious alternative here. I suppose my Emilia Perez blinders could be tricking me into not seeing it as a threat. Conclave seems to be the consensus choice here but I don’t see a lot in that film worth rewarding here, other than it’s vaguely a thriller and voters like that genre here. No, I think voters will go down the line for their favorite film and Anora has enough showy editing to justify a win here.

Will Win: Anora

Runner-Up: Conclave

If I Had A Ballot: Anora

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• A Different Man
• Emilia Perez
• Nosferatu
• The Substance
• Wicked

A surprisingly strong lineup here, but I think The Substance should have no problem winning this one. It’s all about the transformation of its leads, and if Demi is on her way to a win then the makeup is certainly a component of that. They don’t always go for horror related makeup, but in this case it’s kind of undeniable.

Will Win: The Substance

Runner-up: Nosferatu

If I Had A Ballot: A Different Man. I didn’t know the full concept of the film when I saw it and it took me a minute to realize that was Sebastian Stan and not Adam Pearson, so hats off to the impressive makeup on display there.

Best Score

• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Emilia Perez
• Wicked
• The Wild Robot

With Challengers ignored here, there is very little competition for The Brutalist, which has an immediately iconic score. The only film that seems to have any love here is The Wild Robot, which also overperformed in nominations and could conceivably surprise here. Unlikely though.

Will Win: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

If I Had A Ballot: The Wild Robot

Best Original Song

• Elton John: Never Too Late - “Never Too Late”
• Emilia Perez - “El Mal”
• Emilia Perez - “Mi Camino”
• Sing Sing - “Like a Bird”
• The Six Triple Eight - “The Journey”

I’ve gone back and forth on this one so much. I don’t think the nominated songs from Emilia Perez are good or memorable, and the backlash could affect the film here. On top of that, voters have a chance to finally reward Diane Warren for The Six Triple Eight. Will voters take that opportunity? Ultimately I don’t think so, but I so want to predict it. I suspect “El Mal” will win because clearly voters did like Perez a lot, and it is basically an extension of the Zoe Saldana win, so they’ll feel ok about voting for it in tandem with her. But if ever there was a chance to end this silly Diane Warren thing, it’s this year.

Will Win: “El Mal”

Runner-Up: “The Journey”

If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, this is not a good category this year.

Best Production Design

• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Nosferatu
• Wicked

I am so torn here. Everyone is predicting Wicked, but my gut is saying that the movie about architecture should win, which is The Brutalist. That said, I also don’t think Wicked has good Production Design and I was very underwhelmed by the design in The Brutalist (I could feel the lack of budget most especially in the production design, for what it’s worth). I also wonder if there is enough of a hit against The Brutalist for the accusations of using AI in relation to the design elements that people might not want to vote for it. So I guess ultimately I’ll go with the consensus for Wicked, but I really do wonder if The Brutalist isn’t the more obvious choice?

Will Win: Wicked
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
If I Had A Ballot: Nosferatu

Best Sound

• A Complete Unknown
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Perez
• Wicked
• The Wild Robot

All signs point to Dune winning this one, but I can’t help but think one of the musical films could take it. Wicked in particular feels like a real threat. That said, the fact that there are three musical films all competing here means that they will likely split the vote. So while I think the love for Wicked could surprise here, I’ll stick with the unique soundscapes of Dune.

Will Win: Dune
Runner-Up: Wicked
If I Had A Ballot: Dune

Best Visual FX

• Alien: Romulus
• Better Man
• Dune: Part Two
• The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
• Wicked

The one place Dune will definitely win this time around, in spite of winning six Oscars with the first film. If anything can challenge it I would guess it’s Planet of the Apes, but these films never win this category for some reason so I doubt they go for the weaker film of the franchise for the win. Perhaps Wicked wins if voters really want to reward it a lot or are truly tired of Dune, but I suspect Dune will win this easily.

Will Win: Dune
Runner-Up: The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
If I Had A Ballot: Dune

Best Animated Feature

• Flow
• Inside Out 2
• Memoirs of a Snail
• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
• The Wild Robot

This has turned into a surprisingly tight race between Flow and The Wild Robot. My gut says that this category will always trend populist unless there is an arthouse icon in play (Miyazaki). So The Wild Robot will be the big winner here. But don’t count out Flow yet, it is clearly an arthouse sensation and could draw votes if people aren’t excited about voting for The Wild Robot.

Will Win: The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Flow
If I Had A Ballot: The Wild Robot

Best International Feature

• Emilia Pérez
• Flow
• The Girl with the Needle
• I’m Still Here
• The Seed of the Sacred Fig

I’m going against the grain here and picking I’m Still Here over Emilia Perez. Even though Perez got 13 nominations and seems like a shoe-in here, I’m Still Here also got a Picture nomination so it must also be quite beloved. And I think anyone who was going to watch Perez did so before nominations, while I think a lot of people might have missed I’m Still Here until it got the surprise Picture nomination, so now they’re catching up on it. And it also helps that the film is a much more satisfying film than Perez is. So I think the overall quality of I’m Still Here will help it in the face of the controversy surrounding Perez.

Will Win: I’m Still Here
Runner-Up: Emilia Perez
If I Had A Ballot: I’m Still Here, one of the surprise best films of the year.

Best Documentary Feature

• Black Box Diaries
• No Other Land
• Porcelain War
• Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
• Sugarcane

The easiest category of the night. No Other Land has been the big cause this year and has won virtually every Documentary award in existence. It is the most immediately important film of the five, which will help it sail to victory and allow for a big emotional moment in the ceremony. Fascinating that it happens just a year after Jonathan Glazer was booed for sympathizing with Palestine.

Will Win: No Other Land
Runner-Up: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

If I Had A Ballot: Soundtrack. What a thrilling style the film has!

And for the Shorts I’m going with Wander to Wonder (Animated), The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (Live Action), and The Only Girl in the Orchestra (Documentary).

So I went with five wins for Anora, which is a little high. I suspect it will be only three or four, but not sure what falls off. But given the weirdness of this whole season, there could be a lot of surprises. For the first time in ages it feels like a lot of real races are in play, which is always fun.