Sunday, February 28, 2016

Oscars Spotlight the Newest Best Picture

What an unexpected night! I don't remember ever feeling so unsure what would win once the final award was given out. Mad Max took the most awards, and The Revenant took the biggest awards, but it was Spotlight, with only one other Oscar, that took Best Picture. It was a wonderful surprise ending to a night filled with a lot of surprises and memorable moments.

I did pretty well for myself in my predictions, going 18 for 24 this year, about average for me. The biggest shocks were Ex Machina for Visual FX (the cheapest film of the bunch, and the first non-Best Picture nominee to win against a Picture nominee), and Mark Rylance over Stallone for Supporting Actor. The biggest surprise, though, was how good the show itself was. After booting the producers of the last 3 shows, we finally got a memorable, funny, and powerful show. Chris Rock was funny and caustic, the exact right answer to this year's #OscarsSoWhite controversy. Here's hoping he comes back again in the future.

In the un-surprising category, DiCaprio finally won his long pursued Oscar. Good for him, even if it isn't for a performance that he necessarily deserved it for. And Alejandro Inarritu won his second straight Directing Oscar, the first time this has happened since the early 1950's. It seemed after those two wins that The Revenant had Picture locked up, but Spotlight snuck in with the widest support and took Picture. It will be interesting to see how history treats this Oscar season, but for me it was a fun one filled with twists and turns, and a truly unexpected Best Picture (haven't had one of those since Crash!). Hopefully next year can compare to it for unpredictability.

Random Thoughts
  • Chris Rock really was excellent. He spared no one in his attach on the whitewashing of the awards. From his interviews with Compton movie goers to the bit about Jack Black finally getting the attention he deserves in Black History Month, Rock was perfect. Best host in a long time.
  • Loved the return of the format for the show following the process of a film being made. While it was less well explained than in 2009, it was still elegant and fun.
  • Ennio Morricone finally got an Oscar, and in doing so became the oldest person to win a competitive Oscar. Glad the orchestra respected him too much to play him off.
  • 2 years in a row: I got all 3 shorts correct. I'm doing something right!
  •  What a joke it was giving the Song Oscar to Spectre after that incredible performance by Lady Gaga for "Til It Happens to You." I'm not a fan of hers, but that performance was extraordinary.
So next year has to go back to business as usual, right? We've had too many unpredictable seasons in a row not to have a boring season next year. If they can keep the show's quality to this standard, though, I may be fine with that.

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Oscar Predictions: 2016


What a weird, unpredictable year this has been for the big prize. While many likely winners have firmed up since nominations, Best Picture sure has gotten less clear. Add to that the #OscarSoWhite issues, the big response from the Academy, and Chris Rock returning to host, we have potential for a genuinely great ceremony (even if the movies being recognized aren't as great as past years).

Best Picture
  • The Big Short
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Brooklyn
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Room
  • Spotlight
What an all-over-the map year it has been for Best Picture. Spotlight seemed to be the anointed one for so long, but then The Revenant came on strong at the last second and ended up with the most nominations and a shockingly huge box office take. But before it got too comfortable, The Big Short took the PGA award for Best Picture, an award that has predicted Oscar's Best Picture every year since the they both started using the preferential ballot. So it seemed as though The Big Short was finally the one, but in recent weeks The Revenant has continued to surge in awards. Winning the DGA and the BAFTA, it seems to have enough momentum behind it to beat the odds and come out on top. Whatever wins, none of these films feel like a typical Picture winner, and really all three can still eek out a victory. The key, I think, is that only The Revenant is likely to win much of anything else, and it is unlikely that a film will win only one other award to go with this one.

Will Win: The Revenant
Runner-Up: The Big Short
If I Had A Ballot: The Revenant

Best Director
  • Lenny Abrahamson - Room
  • Alejandro G. Inarritu - The Revenant
  • Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
  • Adam McKay - The Big Short
  • George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road 
Can we redo last year and give it to Richard Linklater? Inarritu appears to be on the verge of winning back to back Oscars, a feat not done since the late 40's. We know the Oscars like him, so this seems like a pretty good bet, although I think Miller has an outside shot. Some voters might want to spread the wealth, and Miller has such a huge achievement in Mad Max. It helps that in recent years they've tended to go with big effects blockbusters in this category when there is a split between Picture and Director (Gravity, The Life of Pi). If voters feel like two in a row for Inarritu is just too much, Miller benefits.

Will Win: Inarritu
Runner-Up: Miller
If I Had A Ballot: Inarritu

Best Actor
  • Bryan Cranston - Trumbo
  • Matt Damon - The Martian
  • Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
  • Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
  • Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl
Well, he appears to have finally done it. Leonardo DiCaprio has been chasing an Oscar ever since he first teamed up with Scorsese in 2002. 14 years later and all the signs point to him finally winning. Good for him, even if it might not be his best performance. It will be interesting to see if winning an Oscar affects how he picks roles in the future. Will he keep chasing Oscars or start experimenting more? Given how successful he has been with these Oscar bait roles of late, I suspect he won't change things up much. If voters want to be Lucy to his Charlie Brown, then I suspect only Cranston stands to benefit. A beloved character actor with a huge TV following, he portrays a Hollywood icon in a showy, broad performance. In a different year it would have been enough. This year, maybe not quite. We'll see.

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Runner-Up: Bryan Cranston
If I Had A Ballot: Michael Fassbender

Best Actress
  • Cate Blanchett - Carol
  • Brie Larson - Room
  • Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
  • Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years
  • Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn
This has to be one of the easier ones to pick this year. Brie Larson appears to have this one in the bag for her emotional, star-making performance in Room. It's the right role at the right moment for her, and voters will have a hard time resisting it. Only Ronan has a shot to upset her, but it seems like she is on the early stages of a very long, fruitful career, so voters likely think she will have plenty more chances.

Will Win: Larson
Runner-Up: Ronan
If I Had A Ballot: Saoirse Ronan

Best Supporting Actor
  • Christian Bale - The Big Short
  • Tom Hardy - The Revenant
  • Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
  • Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
  • Sylvester Stallone - Creed
Wow. Sylvester Stallone: Oscar winner. Seems so odd, and yet it makes sense for this career capping seventh performance of his beloved Rocky character. Stallone is a veteran, something voters like to award in this category, and Rocky is one of the iconic characters of cinema. We all know Stallone will follow this up with a dozen terrible action films, but he probably deserves this kind of career achievement award. Here's hoping Arnold Schwarzenegger finds this kind of role some day. It's worth noting that at the 2 other big awards ceremonies this year, the BAFTAs and SAG, Stallone wasn't nominated in either. Perhaps he isn't as out front as we think? If not, this could get interesting. Mark Rylance has gotten a number of notices this season. Hardy is a dark horse contender in the presumptive Best Picture winner. Ruffalo is on nomination number three and in a crowd pleaser. Bale is the biggest star of the bunch, and The Big Short needs another win or two if it takes Picture. If we're lucky, this could be a fun category this year. If that's the case, I think Rylance upsets. We shall see!

Will Win: Sly
Runner-Up: Ry
If I Had A Ballot: Hardy

Best Supporting Actress
  • Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight
  • Rooney Mara - Carol
  • Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
  • Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl
  • Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs
What's really interesting is that expected winner Alicia Vikander has been winning awards left and right in this category all season - but for Ex Machina, not The Danish Girl. She has barely won any awards for this film, so the question is whether voters just like her or if they like that specific role. If the later, then Winslet may be the victor. It seems weird that she would win Oscar number two for this of all things, but think of the photo op if both her and DiCaprio win. Maybe in retrospect we will all slap our heads because of course voters wanted to see those two win the same night. But for now I think Vikander is the It Girl of 2015 and this is her coronation, regardless of what role she was nominated for.

Will Win: Alicia Vikander
Runner-Up: Kate Winslet
If I Had A Ballot: Tough one! Both Mara and Vikander are excellent, but leads. I guess Winslet would be the one, but all three would be in the running for me.

Best Adapted Screenplay
  • The Big Short
  • Brooklyn
  • Carol
  • The Martian
  • Room
Who would have thought that the guy who made so many Will Ferrell movies would go on to win an Oscar for writing? But that appears to be where this one is headed. The Big Short has a very showy script, which helps, but it's also neck and neck for Best Picture so this would seem like an obvious win for it. I can't help but wonder, though, if Room isn't more of a sleeper here. The Screenplay awards occasionally skip over the obvious film and goes to the one that feels more emotional (remember when Up in the Air seemed like a lock until it suddenly lost to Precious?).

Will Win: The Big Short
Runner-Up: Room
If I Had A Ballot: The Martian

Best Original Screenplay
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Ex Machina
  • Inside Out
  • Spotlight
  • Straight Outta Compton
You can always count on the writers to nominate the most interesting films (probably only the makeup people one-up them for their uniqueness). Ex Machina and Compton are certainly unexpected films here but good on them for nominating them. Neither has a shot though as Spotlight will get its one award of the night here. Glad to see Tom McCarthy finally get his due with the Academy, even if I wasn't a huge fan of this particular film. If anyone can beat him, it would be the Inside Out team, who have the most original screenplay of the bunch. Hard to see them voting for an animated film, regardless of how good the screenplay was. Shame, as it would be a worthy winner.

Will Win: Spotlight
Runner-Up: Inside Out
If I Had A Ballot: Inside Out

Best Cinematography
  • Carol
  • The Hateful Eight
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Revenant
  • Sicario
It's kind of amazing that Emmanuel Lubezki went from being severely overdue for an Oscar, to being on the verge of winning his third Oscar in three years (a record, to be sure). He is certainly deserving of that respect, even if there are some other great options this year. Indeed, this is a very stellar lineup, all five films would be worthy winners. But only Mad Max has any shot of beating The Revenant, and even then it is probably unlikely. This is one of those easy calls of the night.

Will Win: The Revenant
Runner-Up: Mad Max
If I Had A Ballot: The Revenant (but man is Sicario so close for me)

Best Costumes
  • Carol
  • Cinderella
  • The Danish Girl
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Revenant
A tough call! This is one of a few that I have no real idea on. I think an argument can be made for all five films. Carol, The Danish Girl, and to an extent Cinderella seem to be vying for the same voters. They are all period costumes where the point is they are pretty. That normally is enough to win, but with all three splitting votes that means something more singular will win. I guess that means Mad Max, as weird as that seems. Really, I'm grasping at straws here. This category usually has a clear front runner, so it's surprising how hard it is to predict when there isn't a front runner.

Will Win: Mad Max
Runner-Up: The Danish Girl
If I Had A Ballot: Mad Max

Best Editing
  • The Big Short
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Revenant
  • Spotlight
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens
This is a two-way race between two very different films. Mad Max seems like the obvious choice. Action films do well here and it has the added bonus of being a Picture nominee. But The Big Short has been doing well in Editing awards this year and has the most showy editing of the bunch. As always, this is the category that can best predict the Picture winner early in the night, and if Spotlight or The Revenant win this, then it is a clear sign of one of them having widespread support for the big prize. If The Big Short is going to win Picture, as seems possible, it has to win here. I don't think it will win Picture, so I will maintain that logic and say it won't win here either. But it's very close.

Will Win: Mad Max
Runner-Up: The Big Short
If I Had A Ballot: Mad Max

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
  • The Revenant
Mad Max will be on the war-path for a bunch of tech wins, and this should be an easy get for the film. So much of the visual dynamic of the film comes from the makeup on display, telling us so much about each character and faction. If The Revenant starts sweeping awards, then perhaps this could be a surprise win, but it seems doubtful.

Will Win: Mad Max
Runner-Up: The Revenant
If I Had A Ballot: Mad Max

Best Score
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Carol
  • The Hateful Eight
  • Sicario
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What a great lineup! While Bridge of Spies might be a bit under cooked musically, the others are quite strong. Even Star Wars, which relies mostly on old music, has a few new themes that really resonate. But it seems as though Ennio Morricone will finally win an Oscar in the twilight of his career. And boy is it deserved. Perhaps only second to John Williams in terms of how big his impact has been on film through his music, Morricone still has the ability to conjure a classic score, as evidenced by The Hateful Eight. The only knock against it is that The Hateful Eight is a very divisive film, so some voters might not want to sit through it in order to hear the music. If that's true, then Star Wars, easily the most widely seen film of this group, will benefit. But hopefully voters are aware that Williams has won plenty and will instead give it to Morricone.

Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Runner-Up: Star Wars
If I Had A Ballot: Sicario

Best Original Song
  • Fifty Shades of Grey - "Earned It"
  • The Hunting Ground - "Til It Happens To You"
  • Racing Extinction - "Manta Ray"
  • Spectre - "Writing's On The Wall"
  • Youth - "Simple Song #3"
While many argue this is an archaic category that should be removed due to lack of viable nominees each year, I've been a defender of it in recent years. Some great movie moments in the last decade came from the Oscar winning songs. This year, though, I'm having a hard time finding any sort of enthusiasm for this limp bunch. Only "Til It Happens To You" has any real impact behind it, partly because of what it's about and the film it's coming from. Given its star power (Lady Gaga and Diane Warren), it seems like a slam dunk. Who'd have though that Lady Gaga would be 3/4 of the way to an EGOT before she even turned 30?

Will Win: "Til It Happens To You"
Runner-Up: "Writing's On The Wall"
If I Had A Ballot: "Til It Happens To You"

Best Production Design
  • Bridge of Spies
  • The Danish Girl
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant 
Another tough one. Much like Costume Design, this could go any of five ways. I'm feeling like Mad Max can win here, but it just feels like such a weird film to win this award. They so often go with period films, which I think means both Bridge of Spies and The Revenant have a real shot. If Mad Max is the awards juggernaut I think it may be, then it scoops up another win here. If not, the elegant and detailed work of Spies could prevail.

Will Win: Mad Max
Runner-Up: Bridge of Spies
If I Had A Ballot: Mad Max

Best Sound Editing
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Sicario
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I think this is a three-way race between Star Wars, Mad Max, and The Revenant. My head says that Mad Max would be the obvious choice here, but I can't help but think that The Revenant is going to grab the Sound awards. It won Sound at both BAFTA and at the Sound Guild awards. Voters often don't know what to look for in these two categories, so they go with either their favorite film or the loudest film. If anything, we could be seeing a split year between The Revenant and either Max or Star Wars.

Will Win: The Revenant
Runner-Up: Mad Max
If I Had A Ballot: Sicario

Best Sound Mixing
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens
A split could certainly happen between the Sound categories, although it usually isn't smart to bet on it. So I say The Revenant wins both, but Mad Max could triumph here (or vice versa).

Will Win: The Revenant
Runner-Up: Mad Max
If I Had A Ballot: Star Wars

Best Visual FX
  • Ex Machina
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I was all set to call this one for either Star Wars or Mad Max, but looking over the Oscar history of this category and it's clear that voters will go with the Best Picture nominee almost every time if it is an option. Last year we had no such option, so Interstellar won. But in past years we've seen Hugo beat the final Harry Potter, Life of Pi beat The Avengers, Benjamin Button beat The Dark Knight. Voters like a little prestige in this category. You have to go back to 1970 when Patton lost to Tora! Tora! Tora! to find an instance of a Picture nominee losing this award if nominated. So Star Wars is out. That means that Mad Max and The Revenant will face off, yet again (I'm feeling like a very boring pattern will emerge on Oscar night). We don't typically have an effects heavy blockbuster in the Picture race, so that could be the wild card. I'm going to go out on a limb here for The Revenant, but it could be very close.

Will Win: The Revenant
Runner-Up: Mad Max
If I Had A Ballot: Star Wars

Best Animated Film
  • Anomalisa
  • Boy and the World
  • Inside Out
  • Shaun the Sheep Movie
  • When Marnie Was There
I had really hoped that Anomalisa would gain more traction in this race, but Inside Out is such a big crowd pleaser that it can't really lose this race. But if this nomination means more people seek out Anomalisa, then that in itself is a victory.

Will Win: Inside Out
Runner-Up: Anomalisa
If I Had A Ballot: Anomalisa

Best Foreign Film
  • Embrace of the Serpent
  • A War
  • Mustang
  • Son of Saul
  • Theeb
Son of Saul has a lot going for it: it's both a Holocaust movie, and it is getting raves for being an innovative film stylistically. That said, so often voters seem to go their own weird way in this category. Mustang is much more of a crowd pleaser, and that can often help films win in this category. Still, this is one of those rare years where one film has clearly dominated the others in this category all season, and it would be truly surprising if Saul didn't win.

Will Win: Son of Saul
Runner-Up: Mustang
If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, haven't seen any yet.

Best Documentary
  • Amy
  • Cartel Land
  • The Look of Silence
  • What Happened, Miss Simone?
  • Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
Amy is the easy one to watch of the bunch. It's about a person many voters are familiar with, which will automatically mean more of them will seek it out to at least watch the film. The Look of Silence is the Important documentary, but if The Act of Killing couldn't win in its year, I doubt the sequel has much of a shot here.

Will Win: Amy
Runner-Up: The Look of Silence
If I Had A Ballot: Cartel Land

And for the Shorts, I will go with A Girl in the River (Documentary), Bear Story (Animated), and Stutterer (Live Action). I got all three right last year, so I'm hoping to keep that streak alive!

So while Picture seems up for grabs, it seems clear that between Mad Max and The Revenant, very few other films will be walking away with any Oscars this year. Can The Revenant win 7 Oscars like I'm predicting? Can Mad Max sweep more awards than I'm already predicting? Will there be any huge surprises we don't see coming given the fractured nature of this year? Can't wait to find out!

Thursday, January 14, 2016

And the Nominees Are... 2016

A very early morning and a bunch of new Oscar nominations! Not a ton of surprises this year, which is odd given that this year seemed more unpredictable than normal. Still, we had a few good shocks, and a few films that seemed on the ropes bounced back in huge ways.
  • The Revenant led with 12 noms. Clearly the favorite film of the pack, right? It even picked up the almost universally unpredicted nomination for Tom Hardy (although it is more deserved than DiCaprio's).
  • The Martian, once pegged as a possible front runner and a real shot at finally Ridley Scott his Oscar, failed to garner a nomination for the director. Perhaps my biggest surprise of the morning.
  • My long-shot prediction for Star Wars in the Picture lineup failed to pan out. Every film that has taken over the all time domestic box office crown since Jaws has gone on to be nominated for picture (Jaws, Star Wars, ET, Titanic, Avatar). I figured that streak would continue but it was not to be.
  • Inside Out, in spite of being perhaps the most lauded Pixar film ever, only garnered two nominations. In such a weak year for so many fields, I expected more.
  • Mad Max, even though it is an action film sequel, got 10 nominations, second of the morning. With Directing, Editing, and Picture, it seems like it could head into the ceremony with some actual momentum.
  • Spotlight and Room, two films that seemed like they could be under recognized, ended up doing very well. Spotlight was always a question mark in regards to acting nominations, but it wound up with two of them (though sadly not for Michael Keaton).
  • Carol ended up with 6 nominations but no Picture nomination. Highest non Picture nominee of the day. Surprising it couldn't get in over Brooklyn, with only 3 noms.
Best Picture
  • The Big Short
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Brooklyn
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Room
  • Spotlight
Which Ones I've Seen: All eight. Yes, eight again like last year. Was hoping we might get less this time.

Who Should Win: The Revenant. Certainly the most audacious film of the bunch, give of take a Mad Max.

Who Will Win: It's a three way race between The Revenant, Spotlight, and The Big Short. I kind of thought Spotlight was on the way out, but it got enough nominations today to make a mark. If Birdman hadn't won last year I would say it was no contest and The Revenant would win, especially with 12 nominations, but I wonder if Inarritu can really pull off back to back Best Pictures.

Surprises: No Pixar film nominated, and Carol got left out. Otherwise a fairly predictable lineup.

Best Director
  • Lenny Abrahamson - Room
  • Alejandro G. Inarritu - The Revenant
  • Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
  • Adam McKay - The Big Short
  • George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
Which Ones I've Seen: All of them, of course.

Who Should Win: My pick is Inarritu, although I'm ok with Miller as well.

Who Will Win: This is tough! I figured Ridley Scott would get in, and then potentially ride the wave of career achievement to a win. Inarritu seems like such an obvious answer, but can he really win twice in a row, joining a very exclusive lineup of back to back winners? I think it's possible right now. McCarthy could surprise though if Spotlight is a threat for Picture.

Surprises: No Ridley Scott was the surprise of the day. Lenny Abrahamson as his replacement was equally shocking. Room felt like it was forgotten and then this happened. I wonder if he might have been the lone director nomination if we were back in a field of 5?

Best Actor
  • Bryan Cranston - Trumbo
  • Matt Damon - The Martian
  • Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
  • Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
  • Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl
Which Ones I've Seen: Finally saw the Danish Girl this weekend, so all 5.

Who Should Win: I would like to see DiCaprio finally get an Oscar, but I wouldn't have even nominated him for this performance! Cranston and Fassbender would be my picks.

Who Will Win: DiCaprio. It feels like it's time. Just seems like such a weird performance to award him for though! If voters agree, then perhaps Cranston can win for portraying a famous Hollywood figure.

Surprises: The one category I predicted exactly. Some might be surprised by Johnny Depp's no-show, but it was such a bad performance that you have to be glad the Academy weren't star struck enough to nominate him.

Best Actress
  • Cate Blanchett - Carol
  • Brie Larson - Room
  • Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
  • Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years
  • Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn
  •  
Which Ones I've Seen: The entire lineup!

Who Should Win: Ronan. A Deceptively simple performance, but a great one.

Who Will Win: Brie Larson seems to have this sewn up easily. 

Surprises: Rampling seemed like such a fringe choice all season, it's nice to see her get in after all. And as such a beloved veteran, perhaps she can pull off a surprise win in the end? And the Lawrence nod? She is clearly on the Streep path of being nominated just for showing up in a given year, which is a shame because it means the truly great performances don't feel as important when they're nominated if Joy can get in too.

Best Supporting Actor
  • Christian Bale - The Big Short
  • Tom Hardy - The Revenant
  • Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
  • Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
  • Sylvester Stallone - Creed
Which Ones I've Seen: All of 'em.

Who Should Win: I'm torn between Hardy and Rylance. Both are stellar doing polar opposite types of acting. Showy vs subdued.

Who Will Win: Stallone seems like a real possibility after his standing ovation at the Globes. He's beloved by many and this feels like a fun win on the night. Then again, Sylvester Stallone, Oscar Winner? Sounds odd given the majority of his career.

Surprises: Hardy was the other big shock of the day. They clearly loved that film a lot to get him in there. Given he won't be competing anywhere else this season for this award, could he surprise on Oscar day as well? We will have no bellwethers to point the way if that happens.

Best Supporting Actress
  • Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight
  • Rooney Mara - Carol
  • Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
  • Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs
  • Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl
Which Ones I've Seen: I saw them all!

Who Should Win: Tough one. Vikander and Mara are both clearly leads in their films, so it seems unfair to pit them against each other. I'd probably pick Vikander though.

Who Will Win: Hardest category to choose, honestly. I think Mara and Vikander will be competing with each other to the end. But could Winslet sneak up the middle and get her second Oscar? Possibly...

Surprises: McAdams is perhaps the biggest coattail nominee of the day, she feels like a bit of a placeholder here. It would have been interesting to see who got in here had the category fraud not been so rampant.


So those are the nominees this year. Some exciting stuff for sure. I really think The Revenant will clean up come Oscar night, but I also really wonder if Inarritu can win 2 more Oscars after winning 3 last year. And is The Big Short the crowd pleasing sleeper it appears to be? We shall see...


Nomination Tally
The Revenant - 12
Mad Max: Fury Road - 10
The Martian - 7
Spotlight - 6
Carol - 6
Bridge of Spies - 6
The Big Short - 5
Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 5
Room - 4
The Danish Girl - 4
The Hateful Eight - 3
Sicario - 3
Brooklyn - 3
Steve Jobs - 2
Inside Out - 2
Ex Machina - 2