A very early morning and a bunch of new Oscar nominations! Not a ton of surprises this year, which is odd given that this year seemed more unpredictable than normal. Still, we had a few good shocks, and a few films that seemed on the ropes bounced back in huge ways.
- The Revenant led with 12 noms. Clearly the favorite film of the pack, right? It even picked up the almost universally unpredicted nomination for Tom Hardy (although it is more deserved than DiCaprio's).
- The Martian, once pegged as a possible front runner and a real shot at finally Ridley Scott his Oscar, failed to garner a nomination for the director. Perhaps my biggest surprise of the morning.
- My long-shot prediction for Star Wars in the Picture lineup failed to pan out. Every film that has taken over the all time domestic box office crown since Jaws has gone on to be nominated for picture (Jaws, Star Wars, ET, Titanic, Avatar). I figured that streak would continue but it was not to be.
- Inside Out, in spite of being perhaps the most lauded Pixar film ever, only garnered two nominations. In such a weak year for so many fields, I expected more.
- Mad Max, even though it is an action film sequel, got 10 nominations, second of the morning. With Directing, Editing, and Picture, it seems like it could head into the ceremony with some actual momentum.
- Spotlight and Room, two films that seemed like they could be under recognized, ended up doing very well. Spotlight was always a question mark in regards to acting nominations, but it wound up with two of them (though sadly not for Michael Keaton).
- Carol ended up with 6 nominations but no Picture nomination. Highest non Picture nominee of the day. Surprising it couldn't get in over Brooklyn, with only 3 noms.
- The Big Short
- Bridge of Spies
- Brooklyn
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Room
- Spotlight
Who Should Win: The Revenant. Certainly the most audacious film of the bunch, give of take a Mad Max.
Who Will Win: It's a three way race between The Revenant, Spotlight, and The Big Short. I kind of thought Spotlight was on the way out, but it got enough nominations today to make a mark. If Birdman hadn't won last year I would say it was no contest and The Revenant would win, especially with 12 nominations, but I wonder if Inarritu can really pull off back to back Best Pictures.
Surprises: No Pixar film nominated, and Carol got left out. Otherwise a fairly predictable lineup.
Best Director
- Lenny Abrahamson - Room
- Alejandro G. Inarritu - The Revenant
- Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
- Adam McKay - The Big Short
- George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
Who Should Win: My pick is Inarritu, although I'm ok with Miller as well.
Who Will Win: This is tough! I figured Ridley Scott would get in, and then potentially ride the wave of career achievement to a win. Inarritu seems like such an obvious answer, but can he really win twice in a row, joining a very exclusive lineup of back to back winners? I think it's possible right now. McCarthy could surprise though if Spotlight is a threat for Picture.
Surprises: No Ridley Scott was the surprise of the day. Lenny Abrahamson as his replacement was equally shocking. Room felt like it was forgotten and then this happened. I wonder if he might have been the lone director nomination if we were back in a field of 5?
Best Actor
- Bryan Cranston - Trumbo
- Matt Damon - The Martian
- Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
- Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
- Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl
Who Should Win: I would like to see DiCaprio finally get an Oscar, but I wouldn't have even nominated him for this performance! Cranston and Fassbender would be my picks.
Who Will Win: DiCaprio. It feels like it's time. Just seems like such a weird performance to award him for though! If voters agree, then perhaps Cranston can win for portraying a famous Hollywood figure.
Surprises: The one category I predicted exactly. Some might be surprised by Johnny Depp's no-show, but it was such a bad performance that you have to be glad the Academy weren't star struck enough to nominate him.
Best Actress
- Cate Blanchett - Carol
- Brie Larson - Room
- Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
- Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years
- Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn
Who Should Win: Ronan. A Deceptively simple performance, but a great one.
Who Will Win: Brie Larson seems to have this sewn up easily.
Surprises: Rampling seemed like such a fringe choice all season, it's nice to see her get in after all. And as such a beloved veteran, perhaps she can pull off a surprise win in the end? And the Lawrence nod? She is clearly on the Streep path of being nominated just for showing up in a given year, which is a shame because it means the truly great performances don't feel as important when they're nominated if Joy can get in too.
Best Supporting Actor
- Christian Bale - The Big Short
- Tom Hardy - The Revenant
- Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
- Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
- Sylvester Stallone - Creed
Who Should Win: I'm torn between Hardy and Rylance. Both are stellar doing polar opposite types of acting. Showy vs subdued.
Who Will Win: Stallone seems like a real possibility after his standing ovation at the Globes. He's beloved by many and this feels like a fun win on the night. Then again, Sylvester Stallone, Oscar Winner? Sounds odd given the majority of his career.
Surprises: Hardy was the other big shock of the day. They clearly loved that film a lot to get him in there. Given he won't be competing anywhere else this season for this award, could he surprise on Oscar day as well? We will have no bellwethers to point the way if that happens.
Best Supporting Actress
- Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight
- Rooney Mara - Carol
- Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
- Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs
- Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl
Who Should Win: Tough one. Vikander and Mara are both clearly leads in their films, so it seems unfair to pit them against each other. I'd probably pick Vikander though.
Who Will Win: Hardest category to choose, honestly. I think Mara and Vikander will be competing with each other to the end. But could Winslet sneak up the middle and get her second Oscar? Possibly...
Surprises: McAdams is perhaps the biggest coattail nominee of the day, she feels like a bit of a placeholder here. It would have been interesting to see who got in here had the category fraud not been so rampant.
So those are the nominees this year. Some exciting stuff for sure. I really think The Revenant will clean up come Oscar night, but I also really wonder if Inarritu can win 2 more Oscars after winning 3 last year. And is The Big Short the crowd pleasing sleeper it appears to be? We shall see...
Nomination Tally
The Revenant - 12
Mad Max: Fury Road - 10
The Martian - 7
Spotlight - 6
Carol - 6
Bridge of Spies - 6
The Big Short - 5
Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 5
Room - 4
The Danish Girl - 4
The Hateful Eight - 3
Sicario - 3
Brooklyn - 3
Steve Jobs - 2
Inside Out - 2
Ex Machina - 2
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