PTA Wins One Oscar After Another

Well that was a great Oscar ceremony, both the show and the winners. As expected, Conan absolutely excelled as host. Now that he had a year under his belt he felt even more loose and relaxed. Here's hoping he can keep coming back for the foreseeable future. The show itself was classy and well produced (minus the inexplicable sound issues that were never resolved the entire show. Great job giving out the Sound Oscar when one of the presenters was inaudible!). And those winners? Well, they mostly got it right.

As expected, Paul Thomas Anderson finally won an Oscar (three of them actually). He has long been overdue, and for him to win for this film was a real great moment. But his film wasn't the only big winner. Sinners still took home four Oscars, and it really felt like either film could win at the last minute. And the most exciting category of the year, Best Actor, truly lived up to the hype. Any one of them could have won, but Michael B. Jordan winning was perhaps the most thrilling possible choice. He knew this was a big moment for him and culture, and he met the moment. I was on the edge of my seat for his entire speech. Once he won SAG he made so much sense at this point in his career to win. The kinds of films he will be able to get made now after this win will be significant, like Denzel in the 90's. I can't wait to see where his career goes now.

Really, there were so few missteps all night. Even wins I wasn't a fan of, like Jesse Buckley, were still great in that I love her as an actress and am glad she has an Oscar. Sean Penn, on the other hand, did not need a third Oscar, and it makes his win over Bill Murray 22 years ago all the more frustrating. If they'd known how often he'd win they could have spread the wealth around. But maybe they felt he needed another one since he may have already melted down the other two and given the gold away. But one win I wasn't mad about was Amy Madigan, who always felt like the right choice in her category, and I'm glad voters agreed. Now hopefully we can finally get her husband a matching trophy.

So overall just a great night. I'd put this show up there with the very best of them, with very minor missteps. I think the current producers understand the weight of a classy and funny show, and they have been meeting that moment consistently these last two years. As we head into the 100th Oscars soon, here's hoping that they continue to walk the right balance of prestige and humor so we can get a truly great 100th anniversary.

Some final thoughts:

• Every year they do something wrong with In Memorium, either a song choice, missing too many people, rushing through, or something else. Not this time. They got it exactly right, give or take a slightly rambling Barbara Streisand monologue. Breaking it out for three specific individuals was a nice touch, although I don't know that Diane Keaton was more deserving that Robert Duvall. But overall it was a great way to do it.
• One area they need to work on is the presenter banter. Most of the presenter moments were borderline awful, with Robert Downey Jr and Chris Evans being maybe the low point of the whole night. Either get better presenters, or better writers, something was off there.
• One presenter who nailed it was Kumail Nanjiani, who handled presenting a tie perfectly. He even made a great off the cuff joke that it was ironic that the Short category would now have to take twice as long.
• Both musical performances were done wonderfully, with the fluid camera movement in "I Lied To You" really emphasizing how cool that moment was in the film. I'm surprised "Golden" came so late in the night given the target audience of that song, but they also had a wonderful performance.
• Matt Berry was a fun, if unusual choice for announcer. I love the way he speaks, but sometimes it felt like he was mocking things, specifically Burger King, who probably weren't too happy to be launching this new "We're sorry" campaign right after Berry seemingly mocked them in how he announced them.
• I went 21/24 this year, among my better years. I got all the Shorts right, which helps. I don't think anyone called that Casting surprise, so that's a very good score. Surprising given how unsure a lot of races felt, but I went with my gut and it paid off.

So can we keep this momentum going for a few more years? Not every year will have as cool of a top two films as this year did, but if we can at least have a show this good again then that is a step in the right direction. 

Final Oscar Predictions 2026

 

This has proven to be a surprisingly exciting year! While One Battle After Another has the statistical advantage going into Sunday, Sinners has made such a run lately that a lot of surprises could happen. And when was the last time three acting categories were this wide open? I'm so excited to see where all this goes. That combined with the overall excellence of the majority of films nominated, as well as the return of Conan O'Brien as the host, and this could be one of the great Oscar ceremonies in memory! 

Best Picture

• Bugonia
•  F1
•  Frankenstein
•  Hamnet
•  Marty Supreme
•  One Battle After Another
•  The Secret Agent
•  Sentimental Value
• Train Dreams

The big question is whether 16 nominations for Sinners is enough of a groundswell to take it to Best Picture? Or will the presumed front-runner remain One Battle After Another all the way to the end? I suspect Sinners has more in common with La La Land, Dune, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Gravity: Best Picture nominees with a lot of love that ultimately win below the line a lot but come up short at the very end. Sinners will possibly be the film with the most wins overall, but I think a sufficient number of voters won't take a vampire movie seriously enough to give it the top prize. But I think we're going to see a lot of people thinking it has a shot until the very end because it's going to keep popping up as a winner throughout the night.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

If I Had A Ballot: One Battle After Another

Best Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
• Ryan Coogler - Sinners
• Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme
• Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value
• Chloe Zhao - Hamnet

The small chance that Sinners takes Best Picture means there is an even smaller chance that Ryan Coogler wins Director. But after DGA, it's clear that Paul Thomas Anderson has his first Director Oscar locked up. And it is a long time coming. He truly is one of the last of the big directors from his generation to get an Oscar. Him winning here opens up the question of which filmmaker is most overdue for an Oscar now. David Fincher? Richard Linklater? Certainly more recent filmmakers like Greta Gerwig and Denis Villenueve are entering that phase, but are still early enough in their careers that they don't have that overdue narrative that PTA has. Curious to see who becomes the next PTA/Nolan/Scorsese where we perpetually ask "when will it be their turn?"

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler

If I Had A Ballot: PTA

Best Actor

• Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme
• Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon
• Michael B. Jordan - Sinners
• Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent

I don't remember the last time I felt that literally any of the five people nominated could win an Acting category, but that's where we're at here. I think all five are running more or less at equal numbers of votes, that a genuine surprise could happen. No one is running away with votes, and no one is failing to get any votes, so I suspect all five actors will be around the 15-25% range of total votes. If that's true, then a small passionate base could swing a contender thought out of the race into the win.

 

Each actor has a legitimate case here. Timothee Chalmet was the front runner all season, until he started getting people mad at his campaign once nominations came in, resulting in him not winning BAFTA or SAG. Marty Supreme has seriously cooled in passion, which means he could miss yet again in spite of a consensus that he's due this year.

 

Leonardo DiCaprio is the lead of the likely Best Picture winner, he is playing a bit against type, and his character is very likable. He seems like someone who could win a second Oscar, so why not for this film? But he hasn't won anywhere for this film, so if he wins it's because of what I'm talking about above, votes are so evenly split that if enough people voting down the line for One Battle put him in first place, he will win.

 

Ethan Hawke has been considered the fifth place slot all season, and yet he has almost the most going for him. This is his fifth nomination with no win, making him seriously due. He just had an incredible year between film and TV. He's basically Hollywood royalty at this point, having been around for forty-plus years. And people like him. I've been seriously considering calling an upset for him all season, but the fact he's the only one not in a Best Picture nominee works against him, as less people might see his film.

 

Michael B. Jordan is someone I was seriously worried would be snubbed on Oscar nomination morning. I never thought he was a lock. And yet, once he did get the nomination, he has surged and may in fact be the new front runner. Since no one here took BAFTA, he is the leader going into Sunday because he won SAG. And while he is "young," he is older then you'd think, nearly 40 years old, which is about the age when DiCaprio won a decade ago. So he's at the exact right moment in his career to win an Oscar, should Sinners love boost him.

 

Wagner Moura is in a foreign film, which is a hurdle, but he's also the one guy who has run a classic campaign all season. He has been everywhere, meeting voters, doing interviews, and charming everyone. If his film was in English, I'd say he has this in the bag. But his performance is also the most internal, least showy, which might hurt him. But he's also been working in Hollywood films for a long time and has worked with a lot of people, so he might have enough support from people who know him to help him win.

 

So, where does that leave us? I think Chalamet might be out, shockingly. I'm so tempted to say DiCaprio because of down ballot voting. But I think the same thing will help Michael B. Jordan with Sinners, and his win at SAG was at the exact right moment to affect votes for the Oscar. So while I long thought him least likely, I'm now calling it for him by a very narrow margin. But I really won't be surprise if anyone wins here, it's that close! 

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan

Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio

If I Had A Ballot: Timothee Chalamet

Best Actress

• Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
• Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
• Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue
• Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value
• Emma Stone - Bugonia

The only easy Acting category of the night. Buckley has seemingly had this locked up all season. As the one place Hamnet seems likely to win an Oscar, she has little to worry about. Rose Byrne won all the critics prizes, but her film is much more of a critics film than Hamnet is. No one else really has even entered the conversation. Buckley is a great Actress, and I'm happy to see her win, even if it's for a film I don't like.

Will Win: Jessie Buckley

Runner-Up: Rose Byrne

If I Had A Ballot: Byrne. Maybe my favorite single performance in a film this year?

Best Supporting Actor

• Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another
• Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein
• Delroy Lindo - Sinners
• Sean Penn - One Battle After Another
• Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value

The easiest (?) of the three up in the air Acting categories, I think we can eliminate two people right away. While Benicio was winning all the critics prizes, he has had no momentum since then and reminds me of Willem Dafoe from a few years ago, who won everything in sight until the industry started weighing in. And Jacob Elordi has no real shot. His film is divisive, and he is so early in his career that a win at this point would be absurd. So that leaves three people. The logic is Sean Penn gets his third Oscar this year for his villain performance in a presumptive Best Picture winner. He won both SAG and BAFTA, the two key precursors here. But because winning three is very rare, and because he is viewed as a very difficult person, he may end up losing anyway. Stellan was the assumed winner all year, but maybe they've cooled on him (or were never as hot as we thought), which leave the total wildcard of Delroy Lindo. He has the showiest performance in Sinners and is well loved, widely considered a major snub in 2020 for Da 5 Bloods. So can he win? I think he has a shot, but I'm going to go with consensus and say Penn inexplicably becomes a three time winner. But a surprise is certainly possible.

Will Win: Sean Penn

Runner-Up: Delroy Lindo

If I Had A Ballot: Benicio Del Toro

Best Supporting Actress

• Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value
• Amy Madigan - Weapons
• Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners
• Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another

Another one where a lot of possibilities can occur. I think the Sentimental Value women cancel each other out, which leaves the other three women. Wunmi won BAFTA, but she never made sense as a winner given the size and shape of her performance, and I think she won because she is British. So who has a better shot: Amy or Teyana? If One Battle is sweeping and they need to give it an Acting win and Sean Penn isn't it, then Teyana. But I think Amy has two things in her favor: she has a comeback narrative after decades of work, and her role is the thing you remember about her film, while Teyana is one of a dozen things you might remember from hers. And Weapons builds to her and then is all about her, while One Battle starts with Teyana and then loses her for over two hours. So Amy will win for her showstopping role, barring a real One Battle sweep.

Will Win: Amy Madigan

Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor

If I Had A Ballot: Madigan

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Bugonia
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• One Battle After Another
• Train Dreams

Whatever else happens, this is a lock for One Battle After Another. No other film really has much momentum here, maybe Hamnet if they actually like it more than we thought. But PTA has this one locked up even more than Director.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

If I Had A Ballot: OBAA

Best Original Screenplay

• Blue Moon
• It Was Just An Accident
• Marty Supreme
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners

I really thought this would be more of a battle than it is looking. Sinners is looking for a win for Ryan Coogler somewhere, and this is likely the place. I really thought Sentimental Value might take this as it feels more like a Screenplay film, but Sinners has proven to be a real frontrunner. With their 16 nominations, I expect it will win in a lot of places, even if Picture isn't in the cards.

Will Win: Sinners

Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

If I Had A Ballot: Sentimental Value

Best Casting

• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sinners

The best Casting this year was Marty Supreme and The Secret Agent, but the nomination is the win for both those films. The likely winner will come down to either the ensemble of Sinners or the ensemble of One Battle After Another. That said, this is the first year for this category, so it's entirely possible that we just don't know yet what voters are looking for here. So there could be a genuine surprise this time. That said, I think Sinners has enough of an edge (interesting ensemble of familiar faces and new ones, plus the discovery of Miles Caton) that it will win this.

Will Win: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

If I Had A Ballot: Marty Supreme

Best Cinematography

• Frankenstein
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Train Dreams

Well, every indicator is that One Battle After Another will win this, which seems unusual for this category. They normally go for the prettiest or most groundbreaking camerawork. And while those car chases are pretty inventive, this is not a film that really screams "Cinematography!" So if the precursors are wrong, who wins? The obvious choice is Sinners, which is more a traditional pretty film, and it would be a chance to reward a woman here for the first time ever. But Train Dreams also has a stunning visual style to it, which could draw a lot of votes. But enough precursors have gone to One Battle that I have to go with it here, against my better judgement.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners 

If I Had A Ballot: Train Dreams

Best Costumes

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• Sinners

I really want to go against consensus here and pick Sinners. Frankenstein has been sweeping this category, but I think voters will want to reward Sinners wherever they can, and this would be an easy place to do so. The costumes are iconic and actually integral to the characterization of the twins at the center of the film. But with Frankenstein sweeping this category I see little path for a surprise here unfortunately.

Will Win: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

If I Had A Ballot: Frankenstein

Best Editing

• F1
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Sentimental Value

One of a few technicals that One Battle will likely pick up. It is a well paced film that is close to three hours. It's an action movie with an iconic chase scene at the end. It has everything it needs to win this. Only F1 has a real shot to upset, with its car race editing. That has often been enough to win in the past, so it could be here as well if F1 needs to win anywhere.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: F1

If I Had A Ballot: One Battle After Another

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Frankenstein
• Kokuho
• Sinners
• The Smashing Machine
• The Ugly Stepsister

The one sure thing for Frankenstein to win (with a few others also likely but not as assured). Certainly a Frankenstein film is going to be competitive in makeup in any year, but it also doesn't have a ton of competition. Sinners is the most loved film here, but the makeup isn't very noteworthy. And the thing they like the best in this category (transformation) is only really represented by the not well liked Smashing Machine. So this is Frankenstein's to lose.

Will Win: Frankenstein

Runner-up: The Smashing Machine

If I Had A Ballot: Frankenstein

Best Score

• Bugonia
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners

Man, Ludwig Goransson is turning into the new John Williams. Pretty impressive for someone who basically got their start composing for Community. I'm surprised that One Battle didn't get real traction here. That score is very memorable and is cleverly incorporated into the film narrative. Also, Jonny Greenwood needs an Oscar at this point. But Sinners is all about the music, so of course the score will win. And watch out, Goransson has Nolan's The Odyssey coming up this year, so he may win a fourth Oscar next year too!

Will Win: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

If I Had A Ballot: One Battle

Best Original Song

• Diane Warren: Relentless - "Dear Me"
• KPop Demon Hunters - "Golden"
• Sinners - "I Lied to You"
• Train Dreams - "Train Dreams"
• Viva Verdi! - "Sweet Dreams of Joy"

I mean, there's really only one option here, right? I don't remember the last time a song nominated for an Oscar was a big of a cultural phenomenon as "Golden." Probably "Let It Go" from twelve years ago. So no, nothing is beating "Golden" here.

Will Win: "Golden"

Runner-Up: "I Lied to You"

If I Had A Ballot: "Golden"

Best Production Design

• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners

Another category that has an obvious frontrunner, but could be upended by a Sinners sweep. The obvious choice would be Frankenstein, as Guillermo del Toro makes movies that win this award, and this is a clear case of Production Design all around. But if Sinners can win in craft categories, this will surely be one to consider. I don't think it will happen, but would not be surprised if it did, and it would portend a much bigger night for Sinners than many are expecting.
 
Will Win: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Sinners
If I Had A Ballot: Marty Supreme. Give Jack Fisk an Oscar!

Best Sound

• F1
• Frankenstein
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Sirat

This could go two ways. Sinners is a classic music based film that incorporates a lot of music styles and instruments into the narrative, which could be enough given how much voters love the film. But F1 is a race car movie, which often wins this type of award. My gut says F1 wins this out of sheer laziness by the voters. But if Sinners is wins any surprise categories, this is the most obvious one.

Will Win: F1
Runner-Up: Sinners
If I Had A Ballot: One Battle After Another

Best Visual FX

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• F1
• Jurassic World: Rebirth
• The Lost Bus
• Sinners

When there is an Avatar film in competition, predict the Avatar movie. That said, people are down on this franchise finally, so if an entry was ever vulnerable it would be this one. I suspect something like F1 would be the competition here - it is a Best Picture nominee and it has a lot of subtle CGI throughout that voters might appreciate.

Will Win: Avatar
Runner-Up: F1
If I Had A Ballot: Avatar

Best Animated Feature

• Arco
• Elio
• KPop Demon Hunters
• Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
• Zootopia 2

The other easiest category after Song is this one, and for the same reason. KPop Demon Hunters is probably the single most popular film nominated for any Oscar this year. And while this category doesn't always go for the populist choice, it often does. Combined with this being a uniquely weak year for animation, and we have a runaway winner here.

Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: Zootopia 2
If I Had A Ballot: KPop

Best International Feature

• It Was Just An Accident
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sirat
• The Voice of Hind Rajab

A real hard one to call, as two of these films were nominated for Best Picture and are very different films. The Secret Agent is a bit more cerebral, and it will likely appeal to fans of last year's winner, I'm Still Here. But if voters want something more emotional and broadly appealing, then Sentimental Value will win. I think that The Secret Agent is just a little to challenging for the average viewer, so that will hurt it just enough that Sentimental Value wins. If either Supporting category goes to Sentimental Value early on, then it will probably be a lock here. Conversely, if The Secret Agent pulls off a surprise, then lookout for Wagner Moura upsetting later in the very volatile Best Actor lineup.

Will Win: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: The Secret Agent
If I Had A Ballot: I go back and forth between the two films. Both would be wonderful choices. I think I'd go with The Secret Agent, but it changes depending on my mood.

Best Documentary Feature

• The Alabama Solution
• Come See Me In the Good Light
• Cutting Through Rocks
• Mr. Nobody Against Putin
• The Perfect Neighbor

I'm not going to overthink this too much. The Perfect Neighbor has been the presumptive favorite all season: it's timely, engaging, backed by Netflix. The one film that has been rising since nominations were announced is Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Often this category will speak to the moment, but I don't know that Putin is the biggest thing on people's minds right now, so Neighbor wins this. 

Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Runner-Up: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
If I Had A Ballot: The Perfect Neighbor

And for the Shorts, I'm going with All the Empty Rooms (Documentary), Two People Exchanging Saliva (Live Action), and The Girl Who Cried Pearls (Animated).

So I'm mostly going with the obvious choices across the board, with only a few small limbs I'm climbing out on. That feels foolish to me given what an unpredictable year this has been. I suspect Sinners will surprise in some tech categories, possibly Sound, Costumes, or Production Design. And picking all 4 SAG winners is a mistake, I'm aware of that, but who misses? I'm not sure but I can't wait to see who it will be!

And the Nominees Are... 2026

 

Welcome back for a record breaking year for the Oscar nominations!

• Incredibly, Sinners shattered the nomination tally record, previously 14. What's amazing is that even without the inclusion of the new Casting category it still would have broken the record. Worth noting is that those previous record holders also had two Sound categories to score in, which had Sinners had that option available to it would have certainly gotten nominations in both Sound categories. Any way you shake it they really overperformed.
• Speaking of the Casting category, voters understood the assignment. They didn't just go with the biggest casts, but by including films like The Secret Agent and Marty Supreme they showed that filling out your cast with interesting bit part actors is how to score in this category. I'm curious to see if films not in the Best Picture hunt can get nominated here in the future.
• This is overall just an incredible batch of nominees in every category. There are very few places where I look at a nomination and think it is completely undeserved. Certainly F1 is a head-scratcher, and I'm not very high on Hamnet, but otherwise I couldn't be happier. I'm well aware that my taste is squarely in the same camp as the Academy's, and I'm savoring it while it lasts before I age out of whatever they are interested in awarding.
• A number of films once thought to be big Oscar favorites went home empty-handed. Jay Kelly, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, and none more so than Wicked: For Good completely bottomed out. What a rebuke of the idea that a movie can be split in half and still garner the same nominations two years in a row.
• Once again, foreign films really scored here. The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value both scored major nods, but Sirat and It Was Just An Accident also got multiple nods. Accident was probably the one film that could have done better this year, as many thought it would be an across the board nominee given the weight the Palme D'Or has had in recent years. 
• Many people scored their first nominations this year that made me happy: Renate Reinsve, Elle Fanning, Michael B. Jordan, Stellan Skarsgard, Josh Safdie, Rose Byrne, and Delroy Lindo. All very deserving of these first time nominations.

Best Picture

• Bugonia
• F1
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
• Train Dreams

Which Ones I've Seen: All ten of them.

Who Should Win: My Top 10 films for the year are very well represented here, so many films would make me happy. That said, One Battle After Another is my favorite. But really, many films would make me happy. 

Who Will Win: Well it seemed like One Battle had this locked up, but with 16 nominations I'm wondering if Sinners can change the course of things. Perhaps voters will be tired of rewarding One Battle so much and they'll realize how much they love Sinners. The tide can often change once nominations come out, so let's see what happens.

Surprises: In the last week or two, after the PGA nominations, F1 appeared as a possibility, but still felt unlikely. So that's the biggest surprise. On the sadder side was It Was Just an Accident got left behind. Otherwise a pretty predictable lineup.

Best Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
• Ryan Coogler - Sinners
• Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme
• Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value
• Chloe Zhao - Hamnet

Which Ones I've Seen: The whole lineup.

 
Who Should Win: I'm here for PTA finally having an Oscar. He's almost certainly the most nominated living filmmaker without a win, so it's time. The Oscars have been making a point of rewarding beloved filmmakers who started in the 90's and 2000's, so after this I wonder who will inherit the most overdue mantle? Maybe David Fincher?

Who Will Win: Even if Sinners shocks in Picture, I think PTA still has this one wrapped up. That said, no black director has won here and Ryan Coogler would be an obvcious place to correct that given the love for his film across the board.

Surprises: This was a pretty set lineup for a while. Trier was the shakiest one but it was clear immediately this morning that they loved his film. Guillermo del Toro and Jafar Panahi were the odd men out.

Best Actor

• Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme
• Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon
• Michael B. Jordan - Sinners
• Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent 

Which Ones I've Seen: All five of these guys.

Who Should Win: It's Chalamet's time. I've never been as high on him as others have been, but this is a big bold performance that deserved a win. Let's not make the mistake of ignoring him at his best and then rewarding him later on for something more boring like a musical biopic performance.

Who Will Win: Well this one is interesting. I think this category is very strong across the board, to the point where I think three men could win. Chalamet is in the driver's seat, but if voters balk at rewarding him so early in his career then either DiCaprio could win a second Oscar for his standout work in a presumptive Best Picture winner, or Ethan Hawke could coast on his five nominations to an overdue narrative. Any of these could happen, but Chalamet for now has my prediction.

Surprises: The love for Bugonia in recent weeks convinced me that Jesse Plemons would get his second nomination and join his Friday Night Lights costar in the category, possibly at the expense of Moura. But it didn't happen, and the category was simply too strong for him to break in.

Best Actress

• Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
• Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
• Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue
• Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value
• Emma Stone - Bugonia

Which Ones I've Seen: I caught Song Sung Blue this week, so all five of them.

Who Should Win: Easily Byrne. Perhaps my favorite performance of the year in any category.

Who Will Win: Easiest call of the night: Jessie Buckley will win. I wasn't a big fan of her work here but I love her as an Actress and no one is coming close to beating her.

Surprises: The one big actor in One Battle to not get nominated, Chase Infiniti. She missed out in favor of Kate Hudson, who was perfectly lovely in her film but didn't really need that nomination.

Best Supporting Actor

• Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another
• Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein
• Delroy Lindo - Sinners
• Sean Penn - One Battle After Another
• Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value

Which Ones I've Seen: All of them.

Who Should Win: Del Toro is my pick here, he really electrifies his film when he shows up. But Skarsgard is also great in a Lead performance masquerading as Supporting. I'd be happy with either.

Who Will Win: Well Del Toro took all the critics prizes, but I think Stellan is taking over the momentum in industry prizes. And as the one obvious place to reward a film they clearly loved, this is a good place to do it. Plus Stellan is a legend who has worked for decades without this kind of recognition.

Surprises: Paul Mescal may have been victim of category fraud confusion. He is a Lead but he campaigned as Supporting, and I suspect enough voters voted for him in lead to split his vote. That meant that Delroy Lindo, who has not shown up anywhere really got in for his work. In retrospect Lindo makes all the sense in the world, so it was a very welcome surprise.

Best Supporting Actress

• Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value
• Amy Madigan - Weapons
• Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners
• Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another

Which Ones I've Seen: All five of them.

Who Should Win: Amy Madigan does the amazing thing of creating a character that can change with the tone of the movie she's in: scary, funny, sympathetic, she does it all. Wonderful work.

Who Will Win: I suspect Teyana Taylor wins this as a way to reward One Battle in an acting category, but Amy Madigan has won enough prizes this season to make me wonder. Taylor also leaves her movie 40 minutes in, while Madigan basically hijacks the whole film once she finally shows up. Could be a close call.

Surprises: Elle Fanning has been left out all season in favor of her costars, so hearing her name first this morning was a great, welcome surprise. That meant that Ariana Grande couldn't find her way in here for repeating a performance she gave last year.

Honestly I can't wait for the Oscars this year. A number of categories could go a few different ways, which is exciting. And having Conan back to host is wonderful. 

Nomination Tally

Sinners - 16

One Battle After Another - 13

Sentimental Value - 9
Marty Supreme - 9

Frankenstein - 9

Hamnet - 8

Bugonia - 4

F1 - 8

Train Dreams - 4

The Secret Agent - 4

KPop Demon Hunters - 2

Blue Moon - 2

Avatar: Fire and Ash - 2

Sirat - 2

It Was Just An Accident - 2 

Anora Wins the Hearts of Academy Voters

Well, would you look at that. Anora ended up the big winner of the night, picking up 5 trophies (the same 5 I predicted!). In the face of a strange crop of nominees, voters ended up going all in on the film they liked the best. And while Anora feels like an unusual winner, it also feels like part of a bigger trend within the Academy lately of rewarding more idiosyncratic films that speak to a wide swath of voters, even if they don’t initially appear to be obvious Oscar films.

Sean Baker now ties the record for most wins in one night with 4 Oscars. As I suspected, when presented with a crop of filmmakers with no real career narrative for the win, the guy with the most well liked filmography wins. Audiard and Mangold have had good careers, but both are more journeymen than auteurs. Fargeat was too new and backing a horror film, and Corbet just has no real identity yet as a filmmaker to justify giving him a bunch of Oscars yet. Baker hit the sweet spot of auteur and fresh voice, and he was rewarded.

Mikey Madison was a great “surprise” win, but I knew she had it when Baker won everything else to that point. I could tell voters loved Anora, and the nomination felt like the win for Demi. She was great, but her win still would have been for her narrative and not the performance.

Otherwise, it was a mostly good if languid show. It wasn’t among the very longest shows in Academy history, but it felt like it at times. When Conan came on over two hours into the show to say we were halfway done, I was worried, but they picked up the pace. Truly, I’m never that worried about the length of the show, but I do ask that they keep things spritely and fun. While Conan did an incredible job (let’s get him back ASAP), there were just too many decisions that slowed the show to a halt. Why did half the honorary winners get special tributes tonight with song and dance numbers? Why did some actors get long tributes instead of just clips? The show could have been tightened, although a number of decisions I thought were fresh and rewarding.

Having 5 actors from nominated films come out to fete the craftspeople was a nice change of pace from the way they’ve done it in the past, and gave a more direct line between the praiser and praisee. And the way they’ve done handled Song, by having the songwriters talk about their inspiration was great in a year when the songs just weren’t worth performing. And the In Memorium section was largely well done, save for the baffling music choice.

 

So all in all, a good year for the winners and the show. Fingers crossed Conan can come back again soon, he was a great choice. And clearly we have entered a new era of the Academy that is made up far more by young and foreign voters. What this means for the future is exciting!

 

Some final thoughts:

• Well, after hyping Hulu as the first time you could watch the Oscars via stream, they really shat the bed. Sounds like a lot of people couldn't log in at the start, and then they cut the feed during the Best Actress presentation. Truly an amateur operation they have over there.
• I went 20/23 this year. I was so close to a perfect score, only missing Animated film and two Shorts. I went out on a limb in a few categories, and they all paid off. None more so than that Mikey Madison call I made, which I am quite proud of.
• So what have we learned about the Academy this year? They favor sweeps again after years of shunning them. The last three years have all been sweeps of a sort. They also want to reward an actor from the Best Picture. So if someone from the presumed frontrunner is neck and neck with another actor, they might just be the real winner. And voters like International films. Two Best Picture nominees this year, and Flow also won in the Animated category. I have to assume Fernanda Torres was also close to a win.
•  Indeed, I think my favorite win in any category of the night was I'm Still Here in International. Not only was it my favorite film nominated in any category, but it was also able to stop Emila Perez from winning another trophy. So win-win!
• So let's really talk about the James Bond and Quincy Jones tributes. On the one hand, I like them giving more than a cursory nod towards the Honorary Oscar winners. But by only focusing on two of them, it made the other two feel less-than. And they also didn't let the Bond producers speak, while the Quincy Jones one felt almost like an excuse to get yet another Wizard of Oz related song on the show. I'm all for them reintegrating the Honorary winners into the show, but not sure this was the best way to do that.
• Best joke I read all night: They remembered to include the James Bond franchise in the In Memorium. 

So, another year with a great set of winners and a largely successful show. I hope this trend continues as we march towards what will hopefully be an especially great 100th anniversary show in a few years. This year I'm most excited to see how they handle the new Oscar category: Casting. It's been long overdue, and I'm curious to see what kinds of films get nominated, and if they'll be able to convince ABC to include it on the show given they agreed to not add any more categories to the show when they signed their contract. We shall see!

Final Oscar Predictions 2025

Perhaps one of the most unpredictable Oscar seasons in memory is finally coming into focus. All season there has been no clear front runner, only for Anora to finally start taking the lead with guilds. I think partly what made this season so strange was that none of these films were obvious Oscar films. So while Anora makes senses of this bunch to be the big winner, it is also atypical of the larger body of Best Picture winners. But perhaps that speaks to the overall trend of the Oscars of late; what made for a typical Oscar winner in the past is no longer what they value. That is exciting to consider as the type of mainstream crowd pleaser that used to win has become largely extinct the last decade or so.

Best Picture

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Perez
• I’m Still Here 
• Nickel Boys
• The Substance 
• Wicked

So I guess it was Anora all along? Emilia Perez has too many detractors, The Brutalist is simply too long and eccentric, Conclave is too old school, A Complete Unknown is the type of film that has never won (music biopic), and Wicked is simply too populist and child friendly. The rest of the field just never had enough momentum. So Anora has taken the lead with wins at WGA, DGA, and PGA. It has always been a well liked critical darling, so it makes sense of this batch of nominees. Could anything surprise in the end? I  guess maybe Conclave as it’s also hard to hate it, even if it has less passion behind it than Anora. But I think Anora has gotten enough wind in its sails to cruise to victory at the very end.

Will Win: Anora

Runner-Up: Conclave

If I Had A Ballot: I’m Still Here 

Best Director

• Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez
• Sean Baker - Anora
• Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
• Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
• James Mangold - A Complete Unknown

Of late this award has been the award for technical achievement for a Best Picture runner up. Life of Pi, Gravity, Power of the Dog, The Revenant, Roma. For whatever reason, the Academy has deemed this to be the way to reward technical prowess. The exception is when Best Picture is some kind of technical showcase (Oppenheimer) or it’s just a sweep situation (Nomadland, Everything Everywhere). So where does that leave us? Well, The Brutalist fits pretty neatly into that first camp of technical powerhouse and is likely not to win Picture, so it would make a lot of sense here. But. Brady Corbet has zero cache with the Directors branch, a man who had a small acting career for two decades and then tried his hand at directing. The winners for all those other films I mentioned had titans of the field being rewarded. This year has no titan, but the “closest” to that would be Sean Baker, a man who has been well liked for a while but never in the award conversation. So can Anora win Director? I think so, if only because Corbet has so little narrative as a director. But if there is a split between Picture and Director, then Corbet could still easily win.

Will Win: Sean Baker

Runner-Up: Brady Corbet

If I Had A Ballot: Baker

Best Actor

• Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
• Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
• Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
• Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
• Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice

So, how much does SAG matter? Adrien Brody has won everything until he lost SAG. SAG is typically more populist leaning, so Chalamet winning isn’t the biggest surprise. But is it indicative of a change in the winds a week ahead of the Oscars? I suspect not, and Brody will still win, but this certainly made it more interesting. And the more I think about it, the more it feels like Chalamet winning here would be a major moment for the Oscars, possibly giving them some real juice with Gen Z audiences who might otherwise be less than interested in the Oscars.

Will Win: Brody

Runner-Up: Chalamet

If I Had A Ballot: Stan

Best Acress

• Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
• Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez
• Mikey Madison - Anora
• Demi Moore - The Substance
• Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here

The hardest call of the night for me. The consensus is Demi Moore will win, and I see the logic. She has had a long career that has gone unrewarded, it’s a “big” performance, and voters are riding high of late on rewarding comebacks for people who were never really Oscar actors (Brenden Fraser, Ke Huy Quan, Jamie Lee Curtis). But are voters really going to vote for the goopy horror performance? Maybe. I could see it. But two other women have a strong narrative. Fernanda Torres gives a powerful performance in a film that voters were likely catching up to as they were voting. Add to that the fact that Hollywood based voters might be busy with the aftermath of the wildfires still and foreign voters will have a higher impact on voting. But what of Mikey Madison, the breakout lead of the likely Best Picture winner? If voters love Anora, isn’t she the heart of that movie? But then so weren’t Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Keaton, and Sally Hawkins in their Best Picture winners? So where does that leave us? 

I think I’m going to go with my gut, which says Demi will miss here and that recent bias towards rewarding an actor in a Best Picture winner (every winner since Parasite has won an acting Oscar) means Madison wins. But maybe I’m overthinking it?

Will Win: Madison

Runner-Up: Moore

If I Had A Ballot: Torres

Best Supporting Actor

• Yura Borisov - Anora
• Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
• Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
• Guy Pearce - The Brutalist 
• Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice

Could Edward Norton somehow pull off a surprise here and win? Probably not, but as it’s his fourth nomination and everyone seems to agree that he is surprisingly wonderful in his film, I can’t help but wonder if this is the one acting category that has an upset? I suspect Kieran Culkin has this (rightfully) sewn up, but given his film failed to make the Best Picture cut, I wonder if there is enough wiggle room for Norton to maneuver.

Will Win: Kieran Culkin

Runner-Up: Edward Norton

If I Had A Ballot: Culkin

Best Supporting Actress

• Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown
• Ariana Grande - Wicked
• Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
• Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
• Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez

In spite of all the controversy around Karla Sofia Gascon, I think Saldana is still a lock here. For one, she has built a lot of industry goodwill that will be repaid here. Second, there isn’t really an obvious person to benefit from her faltering at the last minute. Sure, there’s a lot of love for Wicked and especially Ariana Grande, but she hasn’t shown any real strength anywhere else, so it’s unlikely she’d pop here suddenly. No, Zoe Saldana will breeze to victory, even if her film is catering at the same time.

Will Win: Zoe Saldana

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande

If I Had A Ballot: Grande. Shocked as I am, she is one of the performances of the year for me.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Conclave
• A Complete Unknown
• Emilia Perez
• Nickel Boys
• Sing Sing

This feels surprisingly uncompetitive. Conclave is pretty safe here, it’s a well liked film with very few other places to reward it. I suppose if the Emilia Perez love was real then it might have a shot here, but I can’t see that happening now after all that’s happened the last few weeks. If there is a real shock I guess Nickel Boys could rally some support from those frustrated it didn’t do better with nominations, but I think it’s pretty clear who is winning here.

Will Win: Conclave

Runner-Up: Emilia Perez 

If I Had A Ballot: Sing Sing

Best Original Screenplay

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Real Pain
• The Substance
• September 5

If Anora is going to win Best Picture, then this is a must win category. And unlike Adapted, this is a tougher category. A Real Pain has won a number of writing awards this season, and The Substance memorably won this category at Cannes, so both are competitive. But ultimately voters like to vote for their favorite down the line unless there’s a reason not to, and Anora is a classic screenplay winner if I’ve ever seen one. So even if Anora fails to win Beat Picture, I think it will at least win this.

Will Win: Anora

Runner-Up: The Substance

If I Had A Ballot: A Real Pain

Best Cinematography

• The Brutalist
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Perez
• Maria
• Nosferatu

The big epic of the season has a pretty easy path to victory here. The Brutalist has many striking images and it shot on the defunct VistaVision format, so voters will lap that up. Only Dune has any real shot here, but since they already rewarded Dune here a few years ago they won’t feel the need to again.

Will Win: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

If I Had A Ballot: Dune, pretty easily.

Best Costumes

• A Complete Unknown 
• Conclave
• Gladiator II
• Nosferatu
• Wicked

Populist voters will have a few places to reward the big film of the year, Wicked, and this is the most likely one. The costumes are a mix of iconic and recreations of costumes from the classic Oz film. Wicked could walk away with as many as five or six Oscars, but it will at least win one, with this being the most likely one.

Will Win: Wicked

Runner-Up: Nosferatu

If I Had A Ballot: Nosferatu

Best Editing

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Emilia Perez
• Wicked

So can Sean Baker really win four Oscars? I suspect he won’t but where does he lose? He has a strong narrative in Director and Screenplay, and Picture feels locked. So does he miss here? Well… I’m predicting him winning all four Oscars to cover my bases as I could see a surprise in Screenplay or Directing, but I just don’t see an obvious alternative here. I suppose my Emilia Perez blinders could be tricking me into not seeing it as a threat. Conclave seems to be the consensus choice here but I don’t see a lot in that film worth rewarding here, other than it’s vaguely a thriller and voters like that genre here. No, I think voters will go down the line for their favorite film and Anora has enough showy editing to justify a win here.

Will Win: Anora

Runner-Up: Conclave

If I Had A Ballot: Anora

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• A Different Man
• Emilia Perez
• Nosferatu
• The Substance
• Wicked

A surprisingly strong lineup here, but I think The Substance should have no problem winning this one. It’s all about the transformation of its leads, and if Demi is on her way to a win then the makeup is certainly a component of that. They don’t always go for horror related makeup, but in this case it’s kind of undeniable.

Will Win: The Substance

Runner-up: Nosferatu

If I Had A Ballot: A Different Man. I didn’t know the full concept of the film when I saw it and it took me a minute to realize that was Sebastian Stan and not Adam Pearson, so hats off to the impressive makeup on display there.

Best Score

• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Emilia Perez
• Wicked
• The Wild Robot

With Challengers ignored here, there is very little competition for The Brutalist, which has an immediately iconic score. The only film that seems to have any love here is The Wild Robot, which also overperformed in nominations and could conceivably surprise here. Unlikely though.

Will Win: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

If I Had A Ballot: The Wild Robot

Best Original Song

• Elton John: Never Too Late - “Never Too Late”
• Emilia Perez - “El Mal”
• Emilia Perez - “Mi Camino”
• Sing Sing - “Like a Bird”
• The Six Triple Eight - “The Journey”

I’ve gone back and forth on this one so much. I don’t think the nominated songs from Emilia Perez are good or memorable, and the backlash could affect the film here. On top of that, voters have a chance to finally reward Diane Warren for The Six Triple Eight. Will voters take that opportunity? Ultimately I don’t think so, but I so want to predict it. I suspect “El Mal” will win because clearly voters did like Perez a lot, and it is basically an extension of the Zoe Saldana win, so they’ll feel ok about voting for it in tandem with her. But if ever there was a chance to end this silly Diane Warren thing, it’s this year.

Will Win: “El Mal”

Runner-Up: “The Journey”

If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, this is not a good category this year.

Best Production Design

• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Nosferatu
• Wicked

I am so torn here. Everyone is predicting Wicked, but my gut is saying that the movie about architecture should win, which is The Brutalist. That said, I also don’t think Wicked has good Production Design and I was very underwhelmed by the design in The Brutalist (I could feel the lack of budget most especially in the production design, for what it’s worth). I also wonder if there is enough of a hit against The Brutalist for the accusations of using AI in relation to the design elements that people might not want to vote for it. So I guess ultimately I’ll go with the consensus for Wicked, but I really do wonder if The Brutalist isn’t the more obvious choice?

Will Win: Wicked
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
If I Had A Ballot: Nosferatu

Best Sound

• A Complete Unknown
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Perez
• Wicked
• The Wild Robot

All signs point to Dune winning this one, but I can’t help but think one of the musical films could take it. Wicked in particular feels like a real threat. That said, the fact that there are three musical films all competing here means that they will likely split the vote. So while I think the love for Wicked could surprise here, I’ll stick with the unique soundscapes of Dune.

Will Win: Dune
Runner-Up: Wicked
If I Had A Ballot: Dune

Best Visual FX

• Alien: Romulus
• Better Man
• Dune: Part Two
• The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
• Wicked

The one place Dune will definitely win this time around, in spite of winning six Oscars with the first film. If anything can challenge it I would guess it’s Planet of the Apes, but these films never win this category for some reason so I doubt they go for the weaker film of the franchise for the win. Perhaps Wicked wins if voters really want to reward it a lot or are truly tired of Dune, but I suspect Dune will win this easily.

Will Win: Dune
Runner-Up: The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
If I Had A Ballot: Dune

Best Animated Feature

• Flow
• Inside Out 2
• Memoirs of a Snail
• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
• The Wild Robot

This has turned into a surprisingly tight race between Flow and The Wild Robot. My gut says that this category will always trend populist unless there is an arthouse icon in play (Miyazaki). So The Wild Robot will be the big winner here. But don’t count out Flow yet, it is clearly an arthouse sensation and could draw votes if people aren’t excited about voting for The Wild Robot.

Will Win: The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Flow
If I Had A Ballot: The Wild Robot

Best International Feature

• Emilia Pérez
• Flow
• The Girl with the Needle
• I’m Still Here
• The Seed of the Sacred Fig

I’m going against the grain here and picking I’m Still Here over Emilia Perez. Even though Perez got 13 nominations and seems like a shoe-in here, I’m Still Here also got a Picture nomination so it must also be quite beloved. And I think anyone who was going to watch Perez did so before nominations, while I think a lot of people might have missed I’m Still Here until it got the surprise Picture nomination, so now they’re catching up on it. And it also helps that the film is a much more satisfying film than Perez is. So I think the overall quality of I’m Still Here will help it in the face of the controversy surrounding Perez.

Will Win: I’m Still Here
Runner-Up: Emilia Perez
If I Had A Ballot: I’m Still Here, one of the surprise best films of the year.

Best Documentary Feature

• Black Box Diaries
• No Other Land
• Porcelain War
• Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
• Sugarcane

The easiest category of the night. No Other Land has been the big cause this year and has won virtually every Documentary award in existence. It is the most immediately important film of the five, which will help it sail to victory and allow for a big emotional moment in the ceremony. Fascinating that it happens just a year after Jonathan Glazer was booed for sympathizing with Palestine.

Will Win: No Other Land
Runner-Up: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

If I Had A Ballot: Soundtrack. What a thrilling style the film has!

And for the Shorts I’m going with Wander to Wonder (Animated), The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (Live Action), and The Only Girl in the Orchestra (Documentary).

So I went with five wins for Anora, which is a little high. I suspect it will be only three or four, but not sure what falls off. But given the weirdness of this whole season, there could be a lot of surprises. For the first time in ages it feels like a lot of real races are in play, which is always fun.

And the Nominees Are… 2025

Welcome back for another year of Oscar Nominations. After a few delays, we finally have our newest batch of nominees.

• Last year’s nomination announcement was very classy and fun, a throw back to the early aughts. This year was less well done (although at least it was still a live reading of the nominees and not a prerecorded one like they have done lately). Rachel Sennott and Bowen Yang simply are not the right combo for this kind of announcement. 
• Emilia Perez leads the nominees with 13. I don’t know anyone who even likes this film, who is voting for this film? 
• A lot of black artists were snubbed despite support most of the season. Denzel Washington, Clarence Maclin, Danielle Deadwyler, RaMell Ross all missed out on very reasonable bids. 
• So many big sequels to Oscar winners were shunned this year, either completely (Joker: Folie a Deux, Furiosa), or mostly (Gladiator II). Even Dune: Part Two failed to garner nearly as many nominations as was expected.
• Two foreign films, one English film by way of a French auteur, and a film from a German born director. The Oscars continue to get more and more international with every year.
• I don’t remember the last year it felt this wide open on who could win Best Picture. Maybe 2015? Maybe we’ll look back in a year and say it was clear what the winner was in retrospect, but unless DGA and PGA both solidify an answer I think we will be in suspense until the night of the ceremony!

Best Picture

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Perez
• I’m Still Here
• Nickel Boys
• The Substance
• Wicked

Which Ones I've Seen: All but I’m Still Here.

Who Should Win: I guess Anora? My taste and that of the Academy were pretty different this year (after my top five last year all being nominated), so I am less invested this year. 

Who Will Win: Truly, what a strange year this has been. Since I don’t have to make a final prediction yet, I will just say that A Complete Unknown has completely overperformed by every metric. Eight nominations, including a surprise Supporting Actress and Director nomination. In a year with no clear frontrunner, could an easy to like music biopic take the crown? I’ll take that over Emilia Perez, which scored an absurd 13 nominations and has to be seen as a threat to win at this point.

Surprises: I’m Still Here was not a title I saw popping up here in predictions much. It came at the expense of Sing Simg, a title that for a large part of the year was considered a frontrunner to win this category. Nickel Boys also seemed unlikely in the final stretch to get in, especially when it missed the Cinematogrphy nomination.

Best Director

• Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez
• Sean Baker - Anora
• Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
• Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
• James Mangold - A Complete Unknown

Which Ones I've Seen: All of the nominees.

Who Should Win: Another one I’m not very invested in. I’d say Baker is far ahead here for me, but none of these filmmakers are really my speed generally. But Anora is the one great film here so that’s my choice.

Who Will Win: From this far out I still think it could be a surprise. The general sense is that Brady Corbet gets this for the grand scale of his film. But Corbet is such a strange winner, and if a different film starts to take a lead in Best Picture, might its director come along? If Emilia Perez is a real threat for Picture, why wouldn’t Audiard, an actual name in this category, not go along with it?

Surprises: I didn’t think Mangold would make it here, although I have long held the opinion that he will one day win an Oscar as he is the kind of journeyman filmmaker that will likely make a broadly appealing film the Academy loves. He probably won’t win here though. Berger is the surprise snub, as Conclave felt like it had a real shot at Picture and now less so.

Best Actor

• Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
• Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
• Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
• Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
• Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice

Which Ones I've Seen: The entire lineup.

Who Should Win: I’m as surprised as anyone that Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump is my choice here. I’ve underrated him since I first saw him a decade plus ago, but this and his Different Man performance really turned me around on him. He has no shot at winning but he really surprised me.

Who Will Win: I think it may just be Chalamet. I suspect enough voters will either feel content that they’ve already rewarded Brody, or won’t be able to make it through The Brutalist, which is enough of a ding that Brody won’t win his second Oscar, paving the way for Chalamet becoming the youngest winner ever in this category.

Surprises: Daniel Craig was on the bubble all season, but having just seen Queer I can see why it was too much of an ask for voters to watch it and nominate him. Hopefully Craig will be back again soon.

Best Actress

• Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
• Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez
• Mikey Madison - Anora
• Demi Moore - The Substance
• Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here

Which Ones I've Seen: All but Torres. Sony Pictures Classics is a scourge when it comes to making their films available to be seen by anyone.

Who Should Win: I’d be happy with Madison winning for her star is born performance. But Demi Moore also has a strong narrative and would be a fun, atypical winner.

Who Will Win: The consensus has been forming around Moore, which is bizarre given what the film actually is but makes sense when you consider that the Academy has been enthusiastic about rewarding comeback narratives of late. But the more I hear about Torres the more I think she has a shot as more people see it. She won the Globe for Drama, so she’s right in the mix.

Surprises: Certainly Marianne Jean-Baptiste was in the running for her best of the year performance. Also surprising is that Angelina Jolie and Nicole Kidman, royalty in this category, were both overlooked in the end.

Best Supporting Actor

• Yura Borisov - Anora
• Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
• Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
• Guy Pearce - The Brutalist 
• Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice

Which Ones I've Seen: The whole group.

Who Should Win: While I think he’s a lead, Culkin is far and away my pick here. He has a lot of range in his role. I was also surprised by how good Norton is, playing against type as a largely sweet affable folk singer.

Who Will Win: Culkin, in one of the few easy locks of the night. No one else has really come close to him.

Surprises: Strong really didn’t seem likely to me so I guess he’s a surprise. He came at the expense of Clarence Maclin, which is a real shame as he was excellent. And Denzel Washington seemed like such a lock for so long, but the indifference to Gladiator II really killed his chances.

Best Supporting Actress

• Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown
• Ariana Grande - Wicked
• Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
• Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
• Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez

Which Ones I've Seen: All five of them.

Who Should Win: Nothing shocks me more this year than how much I enjoyed Wicked, and specifically Ariana Grande in it. She is my clear standout in this group.

Who Will Win: Zoe Saldana has this locked up. She is well liked in the industry, she’s a lead masquerading as Supporting, and she is in the nomination leader. She has this one easily. 

Surprises: Monica Barbaro was not really in the conversation until late, so good on her for storming this category at the last minute. And it may have come at the expense of a career worst performance from Jamie Lee Curtis, so win-win.

Unlike past recent years I have no vested interest in most of these races, so I’m all for some big surprises. Hopefully those surprises don’t include Emilia Perez winning Picture, but otherwise I’m excited to see where the Oscars go in a bunch of categories.

Nomination Tally

Emilia Perez - 13

The Brutalist- 10

Wicked - 10

A Complete Unknown - 8

Conclave - 8

Anora - 6

The Substance - 5

Dune: Part Two - 5

Nosferatu - 4

I’m Still Here - 3

Sing Sing - 3

The Wild Robot - 3

Flow - 2

A Real Pain - 2

Nickel Boys - 2

The Apprentice - 2

Oppenheimer Has Explosive Oscar Night

As we all predicted, Christopher Nolan finally had his big moment. Oppenheimer won 7 Oscars, including 2 for Nolan himself. It was an entirely predictable night (I did my best ever on predictions, 20/23 correct), but also a very good one. Indeed, this was one of the better Oscar ceremonies in memory. It was streamlined without feeling rushed, with good bits, great winners, and memorable speeches. I had some minor quibbles with the show itself, but overall this was what I want from an Oscar ceremony.

Let’s talk about those winners. Da’Vine Joy Randolph gave the best speech, right at the start of the show. Robert Downey Jr and Cillian Murphy were both good winners, rewarding both good performances and incredible careers. The one surprise was Emma Stone winning her second Oscar over Lily Gladstone. She gave a truly incredible performance, and it’s exciting to see her be a 2 time winner this early in her career. I was sad for Lily though. I really wanted to hear what her speech would have been.

Another winner worth mentioning is Wes Anderson. His career has spanned almost 30 years and he has never won before. It feels weirdly right that he won for a short film, given how unusual his filmography is. He feels like the kind of guy who would likely never be acknowledged by the Academy for what he does on a big scale (see the entire shutout of Asteroid City this year alone), so winning here felt good, even though he couldn’t make it to the show to accept.

So, will the Academy realize how good this show was and try to emulate it again next year? I hope so, as this felt like the right way to do the show. They knew they were going to have a bigger than normal audience this year given the nominees, and they stepped up their game to try and show fair weather viewers that the Oscars are still relevant and worth talking about. 

Random Thoughts

• Ryan Gosling my have lost the Oscar but he won the ceremony. His performance of “I’m Just Ken” was a show highlight. It only reinforced the idea that not only should the song have won, but Gosling should have walked away with an Oscar for Supporting Actor.
• A lot of very funny bits. The two highlights for me were John Cena chickening out on streaking, then to reveal what category he was presenting by saying “Costumes are very important.” The other highlight was Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny Devito presenting and heckling Batman as two previous Batman villains. It reminded me yet again that Arnold should be at the top of the list for an honorary Oscar. His impact on cinema is undeniable.
• I like the actor tributes in theory, but often the details of each speech feel a little generic and sometimes the actors chosen to give the speech have no real connection to the nominee. It also meant no acting clips, which is a dealbreaker to me.
• Other small details that made all the difference: isolating the sound of films for the Sound Oscar, not playing off anyone making a personal speech, the intro clips to each Picture nominee after each commercial break. Really, the only flop was the In Memorium (just show us the people who have passed, don’t focus on dancers and singers, literally no one cares about that). Overall it was just expertly produced.
• Jimmy Kimmel was again a steady hand, if not especially memorable. But John Mulaney clearly is auditioning for host duties between tonight’s show and his stint as Governors Ball host. Fingers crossed he gets the job soon.
• Scorsese yet again goes 0 for 10. They respect him, but they don’t especially love his films. Too bad.
• And of course, Al Pacino presented Best Picture in such an anticlimactic, muddled way that I can’t imagine he will ever be asked back for that duty again. “My eyes see Oppenheimer.”  No buildup, no reading of the nominees or naming who won for Producing the film. Yikes.

So can we have a year as good as this more often? The winners could have been a bit less predictable, it when the winners are as good as these it’s hard to argue.