Welcome back for a record breaking year for the Oscar nominations!
- Incredibly, Sinners shattered the nomination tally record, previously 14. What's amazing is that even without the inclusion of the new Casting category it still would have broken the record. Worth noting is that those previous record holders also had two Sound categories to score in, which had Sinners had that option available to it would have certainly gotten nominations in both Sound categories. Any way you shake it they really overperformed.
- Speaking of the Casting category, voters understood the assignment. They didn't just go with the biggest casts, but by including films like The Secret Agent and Marty Supreme they showed that filling out your cast with interesting bit part actors is how to score in this category. I'm curious to see if films not in the Best Picture hunt can get nominated here in the future.
- This is overall just an incredible batch of nominees in every category. There are very few places where I look at a nomination and think it is completely undeserved. Certainly F1 is a head-scratcher, and I'm not very high on Hamnet, but otherwise I couldn't be happier. I'm well aware that my taste is squarely in the same camp as the Academy's, and I'm savoring it while it lasts before I age out of whatever they are interested in awarding.
- A number of films once thought to be big Oscar favorites went home empty-handed. Jay Kelly, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, and none more so than Wicked: For Good completely bottomed out. What a rebuke of the idea that a movie can be split in half and still garner the same nominations two years in a row.
- Once again, foreign films really scored here. The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value both scored major nods, but Sirat and It Was Just An Accident also got multiple nods. Accident was probably the one film that could have done better this year, as many thought it would be an across the board nominee given the weight the Palme D'Or has had in recent years.
- Many people scored their first nominations this year that made me happy: Renate Reinsve, Elle Fanning, Michael B. Jordan, Stellan Skarsgard, Josh Safdie, Rose Byrne, and Delroy Lindo. All very deserving of these first time nominations.
Best Picture
Who Should Win: My Top 10 films for the year are very well represented here, so many films would make me happy. That said, One Battle After Another is my favorite. But really, many films would make me happy.
Who Will Win: Well it seemed like One Battle had this locked up, but with 16 nominations I'm wondering if Sinners can change the course of things. Perhaps voters will be tired of rewarding One Battle so much and they'll realize how much they love Sinners. The tide can often change once nominations come out, so let's see what happens.
Surprises: In the last week or two, after the PGA nominations, F1 appeared as a possibility, but still felt unlikely. So that's the biggest surprise. On the sadder side was It Was Just an Accident got left behind. Otherwise a pretty predictable lineup.
Best Director
- Bugonia
- F1
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- The Secret Agent
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners
- Train Dreams
Who Should Win: My Top 10 films for the year are very well represented here, so many films would make me happy. That said, One Battle After Another is my favorite. But really, many films would make me happy.
Who Will Win: Well it seemed like One Battle had this locked up, but with 16 nominations I'm wondering if Sinners can change the course of things. Perhaps voters will be tired of rewarding One Battle so much and they'll realize how much they love Sinners. The tide can often change once nominations come out, so let's see what happens.
Surprises: In the last week or two, after the PGA nominations, F1 appeared as a possibility, but still felt unlikely. So that's the biggest surprise. On the sadder side was It Was Just an Accident got left behind. Otherwise a pretty predictable lineup.
Best Director
- Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
- Ryan Coogler - Sinners
- Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme
- Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value
- Chloe Zhao - Hamnet
Who Should Win: I'm here for PTA finally having an Oscar. He's almost certainly the most nominated living filmmaker without a win, so it's time. The Oscars have been making a point of rewarding beloved filmmakers who started in the 90's and 2000's, so after this I wonder who will inherit the most overdue mantle? Maybe David Fincher?
Who Will Win: Even if Sinners shocks in Picture, I think PTA still has this one wrapped up. That said, no black director has won here and Ryan Coogler would be an obvcious place to correct that given the love for his film across the board.
Surprises: This was a pretty set lineup for a while. Trier was the shakiest one but it was clear immediately this morning that they loved his film. Guillermo del Toro and Jafar Panahi were the odd men out.
Best Actor
- Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme
- Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another
- Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon
- Michael B. Jordan - Sinners
- Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent
Who Should Win: It's Chalamet's time. I've never been as high on him as others have been, but this is a big bold performance that deserved a win. Let's not make the mistake of ignoring him at his best and then rewarding him later on for something more boring like a musical biopic performance.
Who Will Win: Well this one is interesting. I think this category is very strong across the board, to the point where I think three men could win. Chalamet is in the driver's seat, but if voters balk at rewarding him so early in his career then either DiCaprio could win a second Oscar for his standout work in a presumptive Best Picture winner, or Ethan Hawke could coast on his five nominations to an overdue narrative. Any of these could happen, but Chalamet for now has my prediction.
Surprises: The love for Bugonia in recent weeks convinced me that Jesse Plemons would get his second nomination and join his Friday Night Lights costar in the category, possibly at the expense of Moura. But it didn't happen, and the category was simply too strong for him to break in.
Best Actress
- Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
- Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
- Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue
- Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value
- Emma Stone - Bugonia
Who Should Win: Easily Byrne. Perhaps my favorite performance of the year in any category.
Who Will Win: Easiest call of the night: Jessie Buckley will win. I wasn't a big fan of her work here but I love her as an Actress and no one is coming close to beating her.
Surprises: The one big actor in One Battle to not get nominated, Chase Infiniti. She missed out in favor of Kate Hudson, who was perfectly lovely in her film but didn't really need that nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
- Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another
- Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein
- Delroy Lindo - Sinners
- Sean Penn - One Battle After Another
- Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value
Who Should Win: Del Toro is my pick here, he really electrifies his film when he shows up. But Skarsgard is also great in a Lead performance masquerading as Supporting. I'd be happy with either.
Who Will Win: Well Del Toro took all the critics prizes, but I think Stellan is taking over the momentum in industry prizes. And as the one obvious place to reward a film they clearly loved, this is a good place to do it. Plus Stellan is a legend who has worked for decades without this kind of recognition.
Surprises: Paul Mescal may have been victim of category fraud confusion. He is a Lead but he campaigned as Supporting, and I suspect enough voters voted for him in lead to split his vote. That meant that Delroy Lindo, who has not shown up anywhere really got in for his work. In retrospect Lindo makes all the sense in the world, so it was a very welcome surprise.
Best Supporting Actress
- Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value
- Amy Madigan - Weapons
- Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners
- Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another
Who Should Win: Amy Madigan does the amazing thing of creating a character that can change with the tone of the movie she's in: scary, funny, sympathetic, she does it all. Wonderful work.
Who Will Win: I suspect Teyana Taylor wins this as a way to reward One Battle in an acting category, but Amy Madigan has won enough prizes this season to make me wonder. Taylor also leaves her movie 40 minutes in, while Madigan basically hijacks the whole film once she finally shows up. Could be a close call.
Surprises: Elle Fanning has been left out all season in favor of her costars, so hearing her name first this morning was a great, welcome surprise. That meant that Ariana Grande couldn't find her way in here for repeating a performance she gave last year.
Honestly I can't wait for the Oscars this year. A number of categories could go a few different ways, which is exciting. And having Conan back to host is wonderful.
Nomination Tally
One Battle After Another - 13
Sentimental Value - 9
Marty Supreme - 9
Marty Supreme - 9
Frankenstein - 9
Hamnet - 8
Bugonia - 4
F1 - 8
Train Dreams - 4
The Secret Agent - 4
KPop Demon Hunters - 2
Blue Moon - 2
Avatar: Fire and Ash - 2
Sirat - 2
It Was Just An Accident - 2
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