Good Oscar morning to you!
- Well that announcement show was awful. It dragged on for so long with random real people having to come in and announce a category. And what was with the “Professional Film Fan” they had doing analysis? Just give me the nominees!
- Bradley Cooper missed out on a nomination for Licorice Pizza, but he ended up getting in as a Producer on Nightmare Alley. He now has as many producing nominations as acting ones.
- Flee pulled off the ultimate hat trick and got into International, Aimated, and Documentary.
- Multiple foreign films got into the screenplay categories (both deservedly so!). The Academy really is getting more international every year.
- Spielberg seems unlikely to win this year, but I’m hoping it gives him enough momentum to make a run for a third win with his autobiographical film The Fabelmans this year.
- Overall I was very happy with almost everything. I could have done with less Belfast love, but otherwise this was a great bunch of nominees.
- Belfast
- CODA
- Don’t Look Up
- Drive My Car
- Dune
- King Richard
- Licorice Pizza
- Nightmare Alley
- The Power of the Dog
- West Side Story
Who Should Win: Easily Power of the Dog. Although I’d say half of these films are all timers. A really good list for the most part.
Who Will Win: I think Power of the Dog can pull it off? Belfast seemed like a threat but it missed out on Editing so it might be DOA there.
Surprises: Drive My Car made it in! What a welcome surprise. And I thought Being the Ricardos and tick, tick… Boom! were likely nominees here, but they aren’t too surprising omissions.
Best Director
- Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza
- Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
- Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi - Drive My Car
- Steven Spielberg - West Side Story
Who Should Win: Jane Campion will make for a great winner in this category. But I’d also be happy with anyone but Branagh.
Who Will Win: Campion seems to have this one sewn up, regardless of if Power of the Dog takes Picture. How cool that we’ll get two years in a row with female winners.
Surprises: No Villaneuve! That was quite a shocker, although it probably shouldn’t have been given that sci-if isn’t usually their thing.
Best Actor
- Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos
- Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
- Andrew Garfield - tick, tick… Boom!
- Will Smith - King Richard
- Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth
Who Should Win: I like Cumberbatch here, but really all five are good. A very strong lineup!
Who Will Win: It looks like it’s Will Smith’s year. Good for him, thirty years into an incredible career.
Surprises: It wasn’t clear who wold get that fifth slot, ut I was correct in predicting Bardem over DiCaprio and Dinklage.
Best Actress
- Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
- Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter
- Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers
- Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos
- Kristen Stewart - Spencer
Who Should Win: I would love Colman to win a second Oscar for this film. She is really astonishing.
Who Will Win: Really tough to say! Stewart was the presumed front runner all year and then she missed so many precursors that her nomination today was not a sure thing. I think it’s between Kidman and Colman for a second Oscar win. But if voters feel like giving it to someone who has never won before, Chastain might be a beneficiary.
Surprises: Lady Gaga was snubbed. She seemed like a threat to win until today.
Best Supporting Actor
- Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
- Troy Kotsur - CODA
- Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog
- JK Simmons - Being the Ricardos
- Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog
Who Should Win: Smit-McPhee is a big part of why the film is so incredible, so he should be recognized here for that.
Who Will Win: I think Kodi can win? He is a very atypical winner for this category but the only competition he has is Kotsur. I could see Kotsur being the representative for his film on award night, but I’m not ready to predict that yet.
Surprises: Jesse Plemons being an Oscar nominee really makes me happy. And that he got nominated alongside his wife is even more charming.
Best Supporting Actress
- Jessie Buckley - The Lost Daughter
- Judi Dench - Belfast
- Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
- Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog
- Aunjanue Ellis - King Richard
Who Should Win: I really loved Buckley in her film and would easily pick her of these five.
Who Will Win: I think DeBose has this, but it’s such a weird thing to reward someone for playing Anita again. But if they can keep rewarding actors for playing the Joker, why not Anita?
Surprises: Dench instead of Balfe for Belfast. That really feels like laziness on the part of voters. And Buckley was not at all an obvious choice here but I’m so glad she made it.
So can Netflix finally win this? It’s interesting that Power of the Dog feels like a smaller film than the films they’ve pushed in years past, and yet it seems like it has a better chance than films made by Scorses, Charon, and Fincher.
Nomination Tally
The Power of the Dog - 12
Dune - 10
West Side Story - 7
Belfast - 7
King Richard - 6
Don’t Look Up - 4
Nightmare Alley - 4
Drive My Car - 4
Being the Ricardos - 3
No Time to Die - 3
Licorice Pizza - 3
CODA - 3
The Tragedy of Macbeth - 3
The Lost Daughter - 3
Flee - 3
Cruella- 2
Encanto - 2
The Worst Person in the World - 2
tick, tick… Boom! - 2
Parallel Mothers - 2
The Eyes of Tammy Faye - 2
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