But regardless of the mix-up, Moonlight winning has to signal a lot for future Oscar years. Picture and Director no longer feel tethered together, with only one film in five years winning both. The preferential ballot seems to be benefiting the film that is least disliked of the front runners. So a film like La La Land that has passionate fans but also a lot of detractors has less of a shot at winning than a generally well liked film like Moonlight that is going to end up at the number 2 spot on more ballots. And that 2012-2015 streak of unpredictable Best Picture categories? Well it remains alive and well, so much so that I don't think I'm going to feel comfortable calling a Best Picture front runner again for a long time.
Moonlight really is such a unique Best Picture. It's small, moderately artsy, and it's about people and themes we rarely (if ever) see in a Best Picture winner. While I really think it would have behooved the Academy to try and reward a crowd-pleaser again after years of ignoring them, I also can't deny that this was a bold statement. I worry that Moonlight won't be able to carry the heft of an award this big, that now people will watch it with the wrong expectations and it will be regarded poorly by casual viewers in the years to come. La La Land probably could have withstood that kind of scrutiny due to the size and scope of the film, but then maybe it was time to really go for something a little more daring this year.
Random Thoughts:
- I went 12/24 this year, by far the worst I have ever done. Part of it was the lack of a La La Land sweep, but I also failed to get 2 of the 3 shorts right. That was my biggest disappointment after going 3 for 3 on them the previous two years.
- Jimmy Kimmel was... fine. I like him in theory, but he felt so bland this year. The candy from the rafters, the Lion/Lion King bit, and especially the running Star Tours bit all fell flat for me. I did love the payoff on the actors on actors series throughout the night with him musing about the amazing performance of Matt Damon in We Bought a Zoo.
- Nice to see them spread the wealth around this year among the three front runners. Kenneth Lonergan, Barry Jenkins, and Damien Chazelle were all able to walk away with Oscars. A nice change from two years ago when Innaritu, Linklater, and Anderson were up against each other in every category and Inarritu walked away with everything.
- Speaking of Chazelle, he is officially the youngest Best Director ever, and the first person to win who is younger than me. That feels weird. Hopefully he can continue to make interesting, great films in the future, I'd love to think he is at the start of a long and strong career.

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