Final Oscar Predictions 2018

This extra long, unusually quiet period between nominations and Oscar night has made it uniquely hard to gauge where things are headed. We have only the BAFTAs to really guide us, whereas in past years many of the guild awards happened in this window. As a result, if the tides have changed for any film or performance, we haven't had any good bellwethers. The same four actors have dominated the industry awards, so will we see them steamroll to the end, or are voters tired of the repeat winners at this point? And what of Best Picture? I've noted in the past few years that it has been hard to predict the winner (and indeed, I got the last two years wrong, a rarity), but at least in those years it seemed like a clear front-runner was emerging, even if that assumption was wrong. Best Picture this year still has no favorite, just days before the Oscars. So while many categories are feeling wrapped up, the biggest one is still anyone's game.

Best Picture

• Call Me By Your Name 
• Darkest Hour 
• Dunkirk 
• Get Out 
• Lady Bird 
• Phantom Thread 
• The Post 
• The Shape of Water 
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I've never felt this utterly confused by Best Picture before. I honestly think five films have a real shot currently. The Post, Phantom Thread, Call Me By Your Name, and Darkest Hour are out of the race, but the other 5five are all in play. When looking at what else the remaining five can win it starts to clear up a bit. Lady Bird, which I was thinking would win for a while, now looks likely to go home empty handed in all other categories. So it's probably out. Get Out could win Screenplay and Picture, following the Spotlight route. Dunkirk has 3-4 tech awards coming, so it's certainly in play, but is there any passion for it? Shape of Water could be a juggernaut, or it could fizzle at 2-3 awards. A lot of people think it being the nomination leader and likely Director winner is enough to push it to BP, but I really just can't see it. Which leave Three Billboards. We know it's getting two acting awards, and possibly Screenplay. That's a good enough tally to then secure Picture. It has been winning a lot this season (Globes, BAFTAs), so it has momentum. But some consider it divisive, and it missed Director. Still, I've been on this train since October, so barring any clear indication otherwise I feel like I need to stay on it until the bitter end. But really, I don't feel confident in this decision.

Will Win: Three Billboards

Runner-Up: Get Out? I'm feeling like this could be in play...

If I Had A Ballot: Three Billboards

Best Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread
• Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
• Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
• Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
• Jordan Peele - Get Out

This one is much clearer. del Toro has been running the board this season and I see no reason for that to stop. I think it's so cool that the Three Amigos (Cuaron, Inarritu, del Toro) will have all won this award within 5 years. I honestly thought del Toro wouldn't ever make the kind of movie voters would go for, but I was wrong. Traditional thought is that Nolan is the only upset potential, having made the kind of film you'd most closely associate with this prize. That said, I think Gerwig has a bigger shot than most would assume. There is a real desire to award another woman here, and people have certainly been noting that what she accomplishes in Lady Bird is far more difficult than the genre of film would imply.

Will Win: del Toro

Runner-Up: Gerwig

If I Had A Ballot: del Toro

Best Actor

• Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
• Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
• Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
• Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
• Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Not much left to say here. Oldman has been the front runner pretty much since this film was announced, and no one has really stepped up to challenge him. I like that Oldman will be an Oscar winner, but it would have been nice if he'd been up for a more interesting role than this. Oh well. If he has a competitor at this point, it's only Chalamet. Sometimes voters like to anoint big new talent, and he has definitely gotten a lot of attention this year. Sadly, he will have to wait a while as it's Oldman's turn.

Will Win: Gary Oldman

Runner-Up: Timothee Chalamet

If I Had A Ballot: Chalamet

Best Acress

• Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
• Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
• Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
• Meryl Streep - The Post

With such a strong year for female performances I really thought this category would be more competitive. Saoirse Ronan in particular seemed like she should have been a big threat to win this prize. Instead, McDormand has swept every award she was nominated for. Voters clearly like Three Billboards, so even if it fails to win Picture, they will have a hard time not voting for the face of that movie. If Lady Bird has more momentum than I'm expecting then this could be a place for it to win.

Will Win: Frances McDormand

Runner-Up: Saoirse Ronan

If I Had A Ballot: Sally Hawkins

Best Supporting Actor

• Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
• Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
• Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World
• Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

If a surprise is going to happen in an acting category, it will be one of the two Supporting categories. Sam Rockwell appears to be on his way to an Oscar, and the only one standing in his way could be Willem Dafoe. Rockwell gives the showier performance in a film more voters clearly saw and liked. But Dafoe is a veteran who many may feel is due, whereas Rockwell is only on his first nomination. That said, Rockwell has been around a while as well (he's almost 50!), and he has built up some industry goodwill. Rockwell seems likely to prevail, but Dafoe just feels like such an obvious winner here on paper.

Will Win: Rockwell

Runner-Up: Dafoe

If I Had A Ballot: Rockwell

Best Supporting Actress

• Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
• Allison Janney - I, Tonya
• Leslie Manville - Phantom Thread
• Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
• Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water

I really want to go out on a limb here for Metcalf. My intuition is that one of the acting categories will surprise us. It seems crazy to me that after so much love and hype, Lady Bird will end up with zero wins. Metcalf would be such an easy, clear way to award the film: everyone loves that performance, and they clearly liked Lady Bird more than I, Tonya. But Janney just seems like a lock here. Besides the fact that she is doing "Most Acting," Janney has a factor in her back pocket that Metcalf doesn't: she's worked with everybody. She really is the JK Simmons of the year. She's a character actress who has worked in over 60 films alongside many of Hollywood's biggest stars. Voters like her, and she will reap that love on awards night, to Metcalf's detriment.

Will Win: Janney

Runner-Up: Metcalf

If I Had A Ballot: Metcalf

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Call Me By Your Name 
• The Disaster Artist 
• Logan 
• Molly's Game 
• Mudbound

Ok, this is an easy one. Somehow James Ivory has never won an Oscar. Now, nearing 90 years old, he is sure to win for Call Me By Your Name. It's funny how thin this category is this year, normally it's flush with Best Picture contenders. Because all the big movies are original this year, we got to see some interesting and inspired nominees here, like Logan and Mudbound. Neither stands much chance of winning, but it's cool to see them nominated.

Will Win: Call Me By Your Name

Runner-Up: Mudbound

If I Had A Ballot: Mudbound

Best Original Screenplay

• The Big Sick 
• Get Out 
• Lady Bird 
• The Shape of Water 
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This could be the big decider. Potentially, what wins here will win Best Picture. Shape of Water doesn't need this award in order to win Picture, and Three Billboards could conceivably win without this, but Lady Bird and especially Get Out need this if they want to win Best Picture. I think Lady Bird has fallen out of this race, so it's between Get Out and Three Billboards. I'm going to lean towards Three Billboards, but I can absolutely see Get Out taking this one. It's a nail biter, no doubt. But historically, whatever wins Picture also wins a screenplay award, and in recent years where an upset happened we were tipped off in the screenplay categories.

Will Win: Three Billboards

Runner-Up: Get Out

If I Had A Ballot: Three Billboards

Best Cinematography

• Blade Runner 2049 
• Darkest Hour 
• Dunkirk 
• Mudbound 
• The Shape of Water

Sometimes overthinking it can do more harm than good. The signs are pointing to Roger Deakins finally winning an Oscar on nomination 14 for Blade Runner. And it's hard to argue with that choice, given how stunning the film looks visually. Add to that the fact that for a while there voters were giving this award to big technical films with heavy vfx (think Avatar, Life of Pi, Gravity). This fits right in there with those. The difference, though, is they were all not only Best Picture nominees, but generally considered the runner up for winning Best Picture. Blade Runner ain't that. Here's where the overthinking comes in. Shape of Water is also a beautiful film, and it is a Best Picture nominee (some might say it's in the running to win). When given a choice, I think a lot of voters go for the film they liked better, which is clearly Shape of Water. So who prevails? Against my better judgement I'm sticking with Blade Runner. I really think it's weaker here than some realize, but it has enough going for it that I think it will ultimately win.

Will Win: Blade Runner

Runner-Up: The Shape of Water

If I Had A Ballot: Blade Runner

Best Costumes

• Beauty and the Beast 
• Darkest Hour 
• Phantom Thread 
• The Shape of Water 
• Victoria & Abdul

If the movie about a dressmaker can't win the Costume award, something has gone wrong. This seems like an open and shut category, although if Shape of Water actually does have momentum it could pick up this one. I'm sure more people saw Shape than Phantom Thread.

Will Win: Phantom Thread

Runner-Up: The Shape of Water

If I Had A Ballot: Phantom Thread

Best Editing

• Baby Driver 
• Dunkirk 
• I, Tonya 
• The Shape of Water 
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The inclination here is to go with a Best Picture nominee with heavy editing, which would be Dunkirk. That said, this category has a fondness for action films, and Baby Driver is not only an action film, but an Edgar Wright action film. Wright is known for especially kinetic editing, and that may be enough to topple the layered timelines of Dunkirk. Because Dunkirk is an action film of a sort, I'll give it the slight edge here, but Baby Driver is coming on fast.

Will Win: Dunkirk

Runner-Up: Baby Driver

If I Had A Ballot: Baby Driver

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Darkest Hour 
• Victoria & Abdul 
• Wonder

This seems like another done deal category. Darkest Hour really went all out turning Gary Oldman into Churchill. Indeed, some might argue the makeup is as much of a reason Oldman will win an Oscar as his performance is. No real competition in this one.

Will Win: Darkest Hour

Runner-up: Wonder

If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, only saw Darkest Hour

Best Score

• Dunkirk 
• Phantom Thread 
• The Shape Of Water 
• Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi 
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This could be competitive. Shape of Water has been winning a lot of awards, but Phantom Thread has been getting a lot of attention not only for its score, but for the fact that the Academy inexplicably ruled Johnny Greenwood ineligible 10 years ago for his phenomenal There Will Be Blood score. Some may be looking to make it up to him here with a win. And lurking in the background is that Dunkirk score. That music is one of the biggest driving forces in that film, it simply wouldn't work without it. Shape may take this, but it could be close.

Will Win: Shape of Water

Runner-Up: Phantom Thread

If I Had A Ballot: Shape of Water

Best Original Song

• Call Me By Your Name - "Mystery of Love" 
• Coco - "Remember Me" 
• The Greatest Showman - "This Is Me" 
• Marshall - "Stand Up For Something" 
• Mudbound - "Mighty River"

This may be an actual race! It's clearly between the emotional "Remember Me" from Coco, which plays an integral role in that film, or it's the massive hit "This Is Me" from the leggiest film last year. Coco's song is absolutely vital to the plot and themes of that film, which helps a lot. On the other hand, it seems like everyone is in love with the soundtrack to Greatest Showman right now, so I have to think that will push this over the edge. People have been singing that song for a few months now, whereas Coco's song doesn't seem to have the cultural impact needed to win.

Will Win: "This Is Me"

Runner-Up: "Remember Me"

If I Had A Ballot: "This Is Me"

Best Production Design

• Beauty and the Beast 
• Blade Runner 2049 
• Darkest Hour 
• Dunkirk 
• The Shape of Water

The question is which of two films will end up the tech nom hog: Blade Runner 2049 or The Shape of Water? These two seem likely to compete for a number of awards, none more competitively than this one. Blade Runner created a whole world, and impressively so with a huge budget. Shape of Water is a much smaller feat, but no less intricate and detailed. Looking at past history, only twice this decade did a Best Picture nominee not win this award, so the edge is likely with Shape of Water. I suspect voters like Shape a lot more than Blade Runner overall, so Shape should have an easier time picking up tech awards like this one from voters not as versed in what good Production Design is.

Will Win: Shape of Water
Runner-Up: Blade Runner
If I Had A Ballot: Shape of Water

Best Sound Editing/Best Sound Mixing

• Baby Driver 
• Blade Runner 2049 
• Dunkirk 
• The Shape of Water 
• Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi

Normally I'd cover these two separately, but if the Academy can't be bothered to nominate different films between the two categories than I won't try to pretend they won't go to the same film. Dunkirk seems like the kind of film that would win this award, but I can't help but think that some voters will realize that, whatever his other strengths are, Christopher Nolan is uniquely bad at mixing his films. Dunkirk is no exception, being unintelligible for most of the dialog. So does Blade Runner capitalize? Baby Driver? Hard to say. I'm going with Baby Driver for Mixing, due to the way it integrates the music into the action. I think ultimately Dunkirk will end up winning the Sound Editing one, but Blade Runner may be close there. And yes, it seems foolish to predict a split between the two categories when the Academy didn't present voters with any differing options, but I just know Baby Driver will win something.

Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Baby Driver
If I Had A Ballot: Baby Driver for both

Best Visual FX

• Blade Runner 2049
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
• Kong: Skull Island
• Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi
• War for the Planet of the Apes

It boggles my mind that the new Planet of the Apes films have never won this. They are without a doubt the most game changing visual effects achievement since Jurassic Park. They've single-handedly made motion capture into an art form. And they will remain unrewarded for doing so. I suspect voters will feel like a third time at bat for this series means it's nothing new anymore, not realizing that this series hasn't actually won yet. Additionally, Visual FX and Cinematography have often gone together of late, which is even more reason that Blade Runner will get this one to go with Roger Deakins' award (although if it missed Cinematography then maybe Apes still has a shot here).

Will Win: Blade Runner
Runner-Up: War for the Planet of the Apes
If I Had A Ballot: Planet of the Apes

Best Animated Feature

• The Boss Baby
• The Breadwinner
• Coco
• Ferdinand
• Loving Vincent

I don't think Pixar has ever had as easy a route to this Oscar as they do this year. Maybe The Breadwinner could have had a chance if only animators voted, but as long as the whole Academy votes on this award then populist films will always win. Coco is a middle tier Pixar film, but that didn't stop Brave from winning a few years back.

Will Win: Coco
Runner-Up: The Breadwinner
If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, saw only Coco

Best Foreign Film

• A Fantastic Woman
• The Insult
• Loveless
• On Body and Soul
• The Square

This one is tough. This is a rare year where no big foreign film is in competition. The lack of buzz on these means it could go a few ways. The Square is this year's Palm D'Or winner, which gives it some cred. The Insult appears to be the most easily accessible film of the bunch. A Fantastic Woman is the closest to a zeitgeist film here, and its subject matter may be timely enough to give it an edge. I suspect a lot of voters don't vote here, so it's either hip young members voting, or older members who have enough time to see everything. I'm going out on a limb here for The Insult. It sounds to me like the one the older voters will like the most, and they still seem like the ones most likely to take the time to vote on this category.

Will Win: The Insult
Runner-Up: A Fantastic Woman
If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, only saw The Square

Best Documentary Feature

• Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
• Faces Places
• Icarus
• Last Men in Aleppo
• Strong Island

Another tough one. Icarus is a timely film, dealing with Olympic doping scandals. Faces Places is a more entertaining romp with Agnes Varda touring the countryside. Varda just won an Honorary Oscar this year, so the question becomes: do voters want to reward her with an actual Oscar, or do they feel like that was enough for her and they don't need to give her two Oscars this year. I think ultimately Icarus wins. It's an entertaining documentary in its own right, and the timeliness of it may push it over the edge. But if Faces Places wins then Varda would become the oldest winner of all time, possibly breaking the record set by James Ivory earlier the same night.

Will Win: Icarus
Runner-Up: Faces Places
If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, only saw Icarus

Finally, for the shorts I'm going with DeKalb Elementary (Live Action), Heroin(e) (Documentary), and Dear Basketball (Animated). After two years in a row getting these all right I whiffed last year and am hoping to redeem myself.

Last year it seemed like so many categories were sewn up and I ended up with one of my worst scores ever. I'm worried that may happen again, especially with the ceremony being so late. Voters may be looking to throw a few curveballs at us. We will see soon enough!