Final Oscar Predictions 2021

The longest Oscar season ever finally comes to a close. I wonder if holding the awards so late will cause some people to get bored by the obvious winners and try to shake things up. I'm mostly going with the consensus choices here, but there are a few places where things just never solidified, perhaps a result of such an elongated season. After awarding a foreign film Best Picture last year, this year seems poised to break more records in the Acting and Directing categories, which is very exciting. 

Best Picture

• The Father
• Judas and the Black Messiah
• Mank 
• Minari 
• Nomadland 
• Promising Young Woman
• Sound of Metal 
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

This might be the first time since 2014 that the winner here seems obvious. Nomadland has been steamrolling awards ceremonies all year, and at this point there is no reason to assume it won't continue to the finish line. It's a pretty lowkey movie to be so dominant, but that's probably reflective of the kind of year we just had. For a while it seemed like Trial of the Chicago 7 might be able to rise up and win once industry awards started being given out, but outside of a SAG Ensemble win it hasn't happened. Minari might be rising at the right time to surprise here, but I think voters have already made up their minds at this point and are ready to move on to next year.

Will Win: Nomadland

Runner-Up: Minari

If I Had A Ballot: Sound of Metal

Best Director

• Lee Isaac Chung - Minari
• Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman
• David Fincher - Mank
• Thomas Vinterberg - Another Round
• Chloe Zhao - Nomadland

Well it took eleven years but we finally get another female Director winner. Chloe Zhao is the biggest lock of any category for the night, I can't imagine anyone coming close to her. It was another great year for female-helmed films, so it's great to see the Academy finally recognize that. That said, it's a little bit of a shame that David Fincher can never quite go the distance in this category, always the clear runner-up. But I suspect he will be back again one day, so it's great that they will be rewarding someone as talented as Zhao this year.

Will Win: Zhao

Runner-Up: Fincher

If I Had A Ballot: Fennell. A fun and inventive vision, and a first-time director no less!

Best Actor

• Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
• Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
• Anthony Hopkins - The Father
• Gary Oldman - Mank
• Steven Yeun - Minari

A win for Chadwick Boseman has been in the cards for a long time now. I suspect he would have been a frontrunner even if he hadn't passed away, but that this is their only chance to reward him only makes it more of a lock. Hopkins and Oldman have already been rewarded, and Yeun and Ahmed both feel like they are at the start of long and successful careers, so Boseman is the one they will want to go with this year. 

Will Win: Boseman

Runner-Up: Hopkins. He almost certainly would have won again had Boseman not been in contention.

If I Had A Ballot: Ahmed. Wonderful work in the best of the Best Pictures.

Best Actress

• Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
• Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday
• Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
• Frances McDormand - Nomadland
• Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

The hardest category of the night? What once seemed like a moderately easy win for Mulligan has now turned into a 4-way race with no clear frontrunner. Only Kirby seems to be out of contention here. Andra Day is in a biopic, which they love, and she feels like a new discovery. She also was the shocking winner of the Golden Globe against the same four other women. But her film only has a single nomination and it isn't very good. Frances McDormand is the lead of the presumed Best Picture winner. She is a legend at this point and voters may want to reward her again. But she has already won twice, will win as a producer of the Best Picture, and she has not won any industry awards for this performance. Carey Mulligan is well liked and not a previous winner. Her film is broadly liked at the Oscars and this may be the best place to reward her. She also gives arguably the best performance of the group. But in spite of being widely called the front-runner for a while, she has not been winning any awards so far for this performance and there is no indication she will start winning with the Oscar. Viola Davis is in a transformative performance with a musical component, and she is also a beloved icon. She has won before but feels worthy of winning two. And she performs opposite the Best Actor winner-to-be Chadwick Boseman, which only raises her profile. But the part is comparatively small and doesn't really go through any changes - she is reactive more than any of the others. 

So who wins? I would have written off Viola before she won the SAG, but that has me wondering things. The Academy has a very good chance of giving every Acting award to a person of color, with this category being the only one where that could be up in the air. But SAG also loves Viola more than any other awards body, so was her win really that predictive? I think her winning there may have been largely due to their love for her more than of the performance, but it was also enough to get more attention from Oscar voters to make her feel like a worthy option. But if she is weak at all I think Andra Day wins. Regardless of how small her movie is, she does give a big performance and people love to reward biopic performances. 

Will Win: Viola Davis?

Runner-Up: Andra Day

If I Had A Ballot: Carey Mulligan

Best Supporting Actor

• Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
• Leslie Odom Jr. - One Night in Miami...
• Paul Raci - Sound of Metal
• LaKeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah

The more I think about this category, the more I second guess the frontrunner stats of Daniel Kaluuya. The quick and smart answer is Kaluuya has this sewn up: he gives a towering performance in a Best Picture nominee, and he is a previous nominee that people like. But. Does the inclusion of LaKeith Stanfield here change anything? I'm convinced that the people who voted for Stanfield to get in here either voted for Kaluuya as a Lead, or didn't vote for him at all. So Stanfield's champions here didn't necessarily overlap with Kaluuya's during the nomination period (I refuse to believe that anyone honestly put both Kaluuya and Stanfield on their ballot for Supporting Actor). So if Stanfield siphons off votes from Kaluuya, does anyone stand a chance to surprise? I think yes, Sacha Baron Cohen is well positioned here to win. I think there is a lot of love for Trial of the Chicago 7, but possibly not a lot of places it will be rewarded. Cohen had a great year in 2020, and this would be the place to reward him. Plus how fun would it be to voters if both he and his onscreen daughter in Borat both won the Supporting categories this year? Voters may want to make that happen. Ultimately, I think Kaluuya has just enough support to win, but I really wonder if Cohen can't be the surprise of the night.

Will Win: Kaluuya

Runner-Up: Cohen

If I Had A Ballot: It depends on the day. Today I'm leaning towards Kaluuya, who is dynamite, but I love what Raci is doing in his film, which is the exact opposite of Kaluuya. Wish there could be a tie between them.

Best Supporting Actress

• Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
• Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
• Olivia Colman - The Father
• Amanda Seyfried - Mank
• Youn Yuh-jung - Minari

For a long time this category seemed completely up in the air to most people. I've had a suspicion for a while that this would go to Youn Yuh-jung, and her win at the SAGs only cemented my certainty. There are only three possible winners here to my eyes: Yuh-jung, Bakalova, and Close. Colman might have had a chance had she not just won recently, and Seyfried, in spite of being the best of these five, never seemed to gain any real traction. So of the other three, Yuh-jung just feels right. I think a lot of people love Minari, and this would be the easiest way to award that film. She also plays the most likable character of the bunch, which helps. Bakalova is in the most unlikely kind of film to win an Acting Oscar, but she does have one hugely memorable scene that was the talk of the pandemic year. In a normal year she would not have been nominated, but in a year like this I think she is in second place. That leaves Close. If Close already had an Oscar, she wouldn't have even been nominated for this performance. It's not a great performance in a terrible film. But enough people want her to win one that she got nominated again, and she could potentially win if enough people just want to give her one finally. Unfortunately, I think she will now tie Peter O'Toole for most nominations without a win. I suspect an honorary Oscar will be in the near future for her.

Will Win: Youn Yuh-jung

Runner-Up: Maria Bakalova

If I Had A Ballot: Amanda Seyfried

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
• The Father
• Nomadland
• One Night in Miami...
• The White Tiger

I suspect this is an easy win for Nomadland. Only The Father really seems like an obvious competitor. The other films are either too small or not Oscary enough. In a bubble, Nomadland is a strange one to win this category. The film is less an adaptation than it is an exploration of the themes and people that make up the book, and Zhao collaborated with many people featured in the book to flesh out the film. If voters are looking for a more traditional option, The Father is a perfect example of the kind of film that normally wins here. A play adaptation that actually transforms the play into a cinematic narrative, it is a great example of adaptation. But voters like Nomadland a lot, and this would be another easy place to reward the film.

Will Win: Nomadland

Runner-Up: The Father

If I Had A Ballot: The Father

Best Original Screenplay

• Judas and the Black Messiah
• Minari
• Promising Young Woman
• Sound of Metal
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

This is a real nail biter in my mind. It seems like Promising Young Woman is far ahead here, having beat Trial of the Chicago 7 at the WGA awards this year. Woman got a lot of love across the board this year, so it feels like the voters will want to reward it somewhere and this may be the place. But, if Trial has any shot at Best Picture it will win here. Sorkin already has an Oscar, so voters may not feel like he needs another one. But Trial is a more broadly likable film than Woman, and that may help it here. I can honestly see this going either way, but I will go with my heart and say Woman wins this one.

Will Win: Promising Young Woman

Runner-Up: The Trial of the Chicago 7

If I Had A Ballot: Promising Young Woman

Best Cinematography

• Judas and the Black Messiah
• Mank
• News of the World
• Nomadland
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

A big part of what people like about Nomadland is the way it looks. Sweeping vistas, beautiful close-ups, and a travelogue of America. I think this is another easy one for the film to win on its way to Best Picture. Mank and News of the World are also traditional types of winners in this category, so either could potentially upset. Mank has the issue of looking far too digital for a black and white film, which seems to undermine the idea that Fincher wanted it to look and sound like an undiscovered thirties film. News of the World is my guess for the spoiler if there is one. A widescreen Western epic is the type of thing they love, and if this film had gotten more attention overall this year (or if it had truly been seen on a big screen) it might have been the frontrunner.

Will Win: Nomadland

Runner-Up: News of the World

If I Had A Ballot: Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Costumes

• Emma.
• Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
• Mank
• Mulan
• Pinocchio

This has felt like a shoo-in for Emma all year, but a lot of people seem to think Ma Rainey has this one as well. For a film that failed to get a Best Picture nomination, it seems weird that Ma Rainey could be on its way to racking up wins in most of the categories it was nominated for. I think it has to lose in some places, and with such strong competition from Emma I think that's where the win goes here. But both are on pretty equal footing here, and Ma Rainey is probably the more widely seen film of the two.

Will Win: Emma.

Runner-Up: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

If I Had A Ballot: Emma.

Best Editing

• The Father
• Nomadland
• Promising Young Woman
• Sound of Metal
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

What a tough one to call! They typical kind of film to win this category is something action based, and we don't have that option this year. As such, I think all five have a shot here for different reasons. The Father is so twisty and structurally interesting that it probably should win this. Nomadland is a more subtle editing achivement, but they often go with their favorite film here and that would be Nomadland. Promising Young Woman may be in last place, but it is equally thrilling in its editing, especially the way the final sequences are constructed. Sound of Metal feels like it could win by following the same path Whiplash took to a win here a few years ago, as films about musicians often have a pretty good shot here. And Trial of the Chicago 7 has to intercut between various characters and storylines, as well as between the trial and the events being discussed. I think Trial gets this by a hair, also in part because it has to win somewhere else if it has a shot at Best Picture as so many think it does. 

Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Runner-Up: The Father

If I Had A Ballot: The Father

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Emma.
• Hillbilly Elegy
• Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
• Mank
• Pinocchio

I think that if this was going purely off the quality of the makeup then Pinocchio would be in the lead given the amount of unique work being done there. But since so few people have probably seen it I suspect it will go to Ma Rainey's Black Bottom for the way it transforms Viola Davis into Ma Rainey. Transformation is key in this category lately (see Bombshell and Vice the past two years), so that puts Ma Rainey out front here.

Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Runner-up: Pinocchio

If I Had A Ballot: Ma Rainey

Best Score

• Da 5 Bloods
• Mank
• Minari
• News of the World
• Soul

It seems funny that the Nine Inch Nails guys are going to win an Oscar for a Pixar film, but here we are. The duo, along with Jon Batiste, have been racking up awards for their score to Soul, and I see no reason they won't win here. It helps that they have that Mank score this year as well, adding more momentum to them as the composers of the year. In fact, I think if any film has any shot at beating them it is their other score for Mank. It won't happen, but these two scores happening in the same year is a huge accomplishment for these guys.

Will Win: Soul

Runner-Up: Mank

If I Had A Ballot: Soul

Best Original Song

• Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga - "Husavik"
• Judas and the Black Messiah - "Fight for You"
• The Life Ahead - "Io Si"
• One Night in Miami - "Speak Now"
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 - "Hear My Voice"

Truly this one feels hard to predict. None of these songs were especially big breakthroughs this year, so none of them has a real advantage over the others. However, of these films only "Husavik" has an impact on the film its from. The other songs are all end credit songs, which can often hurt a film's chances if the song isn't already a hit. Only two other films have a real narrative for a win. "Speak Now" is from Leslie Odom Jr, a double nominee this year, and the star of Hamilton. Voters may want to reward him for the great year he had, regardless of the song itself. But "Io Si" also has a strong narrative as well. It won the Golden Globe, which doesn't always mean much, but it is a song by Dianne Warren, who is the Glenn Close of the Original Song category. In such a weak year for this category, why wouldn't voters finally give it to her? Well if Glenn Close won't win for an average performance, perhaps Warren wont win for an average song. While voters may be wary of voting for a song from a spoof film, I think the power of how "Husavik" is used will be enough to get it a win. 

Will Win: "Husavik"

Runner-Up: "Io Si"

If I Had A Ballot: Abstain

Best Production Design

• The Father
• Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
• Mank
• News of the World
• Tenet

This seems to be the one place Mank has a shot at an Oscar. Should it lose here, Netflix will have had two years in a row with a 10 nomination Best Picture nominee going home empty handed. Recreating old Hollywood will certainly enchant them, but will it be enough to secure a win? I wonder if either The Father or Ma Rainey could surprise here? The Father is a film people are still catching up to and seems to be widely loved by all who see it, so it may be rising at the right moment to win in a place like this. And Ma Rainey is the other big film to use production design to recreate a previous era, so it has that going for it as much as Mank does. I think in the end Mank can pull it off, but I feel like people have cooled so much on the film by now that it may not secure any wins.

Will Win: Mank
Runner-Up: Ma Rainey
If I Had A Ballot: Mank

Best Sound

• Greyhound
• Mank
• News of the World
• Soul
• Sound of Metal

This is the first year of the combined Sound category, so it will be interesting to see if there is any change to how they vote here. You used to be able to go with action films and musicals for these awards, but those aren't really options this time. I think Sound of Metal, being specifically about sound, will walk away with this easily. If they are interested in the old standards then Greyhound would be the place to go, but I think that by combining the two Sound awards they are encouraging voters to go with what film used sound the best, not the most.

Will Win: Sound of Metal
Runner-Up: Greyhound
If I Had A Ballot: Sound of Metal

Best Visual FX

• Love and Monsters
• The Midnight Sky
• Mulan
• The One and Only Ivan
• Tenet

I mean, this award almost seems silly in a year without blockbuster films. By being the default blockbuster for the year, I think Tenet has no real competition. That said, with no real big VFX showcase film this year, it's possible voters go in a weird direction with this. What that would mean, I'm not even sure. I don't see an obvious Ex Machina this year, so were Tenet to lose then I don't quite know what benefits. I guess Mulan simply because it was also a widely seen film that people are at least familiar with.

Will Win: Tenet
Runner-Up: Mulan
If I Had A Ballot: Tenet

Best Animated Feature

• Onward
• Over the Moon
• A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
• Soul
• Wolfwalkers

If ever there was a year where one of the arty or foreign Animated films could have won, it should have been this one. But Disney stuck to their guns and released Soul online, thereby guaranteeing another Pixar win this year. Soul is a better film than many of the Pixars that have won recently, so it shouldn't face any competition here. Wolfwalkers is the obvious could-have-been had Pixar held onto Soul for theaters. Cartoon Saloon is the boutique animation studio du jour right now, and every year they feel like the runner up for this award. Maybe one year they will get this, but it won't be this year.

Will Win: Soul
Runner-Up: Wolfwalkers
If I Had A Ballot: Soul

Best International Film

• Another Round
• Better Days
• Collective
• The Man Who Sold His Skin
• Quo Vadis, Aida?

Well it sure would be silly is Another Round could break into the Director category and then fail to win here. This was an unusually buzzless year for this category after a few years with some huge heavyweights, so by default Another Round is kind of the big dog in the category. It's a fine film worthy of the award, and it's nice that Vinterberg will have a film win here after a number of good films under his belt.

Will Win: Another Year
Runner-Up: Collective
If I Had A Ballot: Collective

Best Documentary Feature

• Collective
• Crip Camp
• The Mole Agent
• My Octopus Teacher
• Time

This category feels a little open to a surprise. They often go with either something that makes them feel good, or something Important. They have options for both this year so it could go a lot of ways. The film of the moment is Time, but it also is a bit of a difficult film to watch so it might be overlooked by some voters. Crip Camp walks the line between feel good and important, and that may be enough to win. But I think My Octopus Teacher may be the one to beat here. It is a feel-good film but also a bit of a tear-jerker. I think it is probably the easiest film of the bunch to watch (give or take a Mole Agent), and I think that people will feel good checking the box for this film.

Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
Runner-Up: Crip Camp
If I Had A Ballot: Collective

And for the shorts I'm going with If Anything Happens I Love You (Animated), The Letter Room (Live Action), and A Love Song for Latasha (Documentary).

It will be nice to finally get this long season over with, but it has been nice to see so many films and performances get recognized this year. It's still unclear how the ceremony will go, so I'm curious to see what kind of show they put on. With Steven Soderbergh producing I think it could be a very interesting show, but who knows what he has up his sleeve.