Final Oscar Predictions 2020

When the Academy made the decision to shorten this season they did it with the intention of getting ahead of some of the other awards shows. By coming at end of February there is a sense of repetition and exhaustion that sets in. We’ve seen the same winners for two months so the Oscars seem anticlimactic. Well instead of getting ahead, they’ve just forced all other awards shows to squeeze into January. As a result, award shows are hitting every weekend leading up to the Oscars. What once felt repetitive now feels oppressive. Every weekend Renée Zellweger wins another award, Joaquin Phoenix makes another acceptance speech, and the Oscars feel even more inevitable. 

The echo chamber they created in January is deafening, and what’s worse, there is so little time for voters to see movies that even if someone had a chance to make some headway it seems impossible now. The Oscars have created the laziest awards season in memory, all because they thought that coming so late affected the ratings. Well if ratings are up this year that may make them think this was a successful decision. And if not, hopefully they go back to late February again, so that voters can spend more time actually watching more movies.

Best Picture

• 1917
• Ford v Ferrari
• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women
• Marriage Story
• Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
• Parasite

You have to go back to Birdman to find the last easy Best Picture call. Since then it has been an incredibly tight race every year for Picture. This year has clarified pretty definitively, and it is 1917 that has taken the lead. Winning PGA and DGA, as well as the Globe, gives this film a pretty clear runway for the win here. A war movie hasn’t won since 2009, and they are becoming increasingly rare as winners, so this is a surprise. But that gimmick (which coincidentally was also what made Birdman a lock) is what is driving this narrative in an otherwise front runner free year.

If any film had the chance to beat it it’s the beloved Parasite. Winning the SAG Ensemble prize in a shocker, and being the biggest crossover foreign film hit in decades has given it a lot of leeway. Ultimately I still don’t think a Foreign Film can win this prize, but I think we move ever closer to that happening one day. Parasite is going to benefit a lot from the preferential ballot, so if any film could shock us it’s that one.

Will Win: 1917

Runner-Up: Parasite

If I Had A Ballot: Parasite

Best Director

• Bong Joon Ho - Parasite
• Sam Mendes - 1917
• Todd Phillips - Joker
• Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
• Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood

Regardless of what ends up winning Picture, this is the Sam Mendes award. This past decade Director has become a technical achievement award, going to the film that is most technically challenging (The Revenant, Gravity, Roma, Life of Pi). 1917 fits that description to a T. Maybe if More of a consensus had formed around either Parasite or Hollywood then either of those directors could have won here. But the achievement of 1917 is too big to ignore in this category.

Will Win: Sam Mendes

Runner-Up: Quentin Tarantino

If I Had A Ballot: Bong Joon Ho

Best Actor

• Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
• Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
• Adam Driver - Marriage Story
• Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
• Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes

How Adam Driver never got any traction this season will remain a mystery for years to come. Especially against another Joker performance. As good as Phoenix might be in the role, we’ve already rewarded this role before, and for a better version of it. That said, I can’t be too mad as Phoenix is a great actor who should have won already. At least Driver is still young and will surely have more chances in the future.

Will Win: Phoenix

Runner-Up: Driver

If I Had A Ballot: Driver

Best Acress

• Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
• Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
• Soairse Ronan - Little Women
• Charlize Theron - Bombshell
• Renee Zellweger - Judy

Same as Best Actor, how did Johansson not get attention for this performance while Zellweger is already an Oscar winner and is in a mediocre movie. The Oscars have gotten in a terrible habit of late where they will reward a biopic performance just because they like the real life person being depicted. Judy Garland never won an Oscar, so this is almost like making up for past mistakes, right? I guess good for Zellweger for making such a comeback after being forgotten for fifteen years. Hope she can make a better go of it this time around.

Will Win: Zellweger

Runner-Up: Johansson 

If I Had A Ballot: Johansson 

Best Supporting Actor

• Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
• Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes
• Al Pacino - The Irishman
• Joe Pesci - The Irishman
• Brad Pitt - Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood

The lead categories could in theory still have a surprise. Not so with the Supporting categories. These two are locked up by virtue of the fact that you have two beloved actors who have never won an Acting Oscar, neither of which face very strong competition. Brad Pitt is an icon at this point, but he has proven himself a great actor over the decades as well. So when the chance to finally give him an Oscar came up it seems like voters have not looked back. While he is undeniably the lead of his movie, I get why voters want to put him in Supporting (it helps when everyone else in the category has already won an Oscar). I’m happy for him and can’t complain with this choice, it really is a fun performance.

Will Win: Pitt

Runner-Up: Pesci? But really, no one.

If I Had A Ballot: Hanks, possibly his best performance 

Best Supporting Actress

• Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell
• Laura Dern - Marriage Story
• Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
• Florence Pugh - Little Women
• Margot Robbie - Bombshell

It seems odd that of all the amazing performances in Marriage Story, it is Laura Dern who is the one that will win an Oscar. Not to knock her performance, but it isn’t the first thing you think about when you think of that movie. Not that I would complain, it’s great that she’s finally going to have an Oscar after a long career. If she has any competition it would be from her costar Scarlett Johansson, nominated here for Jojo Rabbit. That film seems like it should win somewhere, and given her double nomination voters may want to give her a win as well. I doubt that happens though, so Laura Dern has this one in the bag.

Will Win: Laura Dern

Runner-Up: Scarlett Johansson

If I Had A Ballot: Florence Pugh

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women
• The Two Popes

For a long time this seemed like an easy win for The Irishman, but I’m increasingly realizing that the film’s length and pace have put off a lot of voters. So much so in fact that I’m guessing it wins no Oscars. So that leaves only Jojo and Little Women. A lot of people think Greta Gerwig will get a lot of sympathy votes here, plus here is the most ambitious adaptation. But something tells me that Jojo is too broadly liked to be shut out, and this is such an obvious place to reward it. Often quirkinesses prevails in writing, so I think Taika will win an Oscar.

Will Win: Jojo Rabbit

Runner-Up: Little Women

If I Had A Ballot: Little Women

Best Original Screenplay

• 1917
• Knives Out
• Marriage Story
• Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
• Parasite

The question here is, does Tarantino having won this category twice already hurt him? I don’t think anyone would consider Django Unchained one of his two best scripts, so it’s a shame he won for that and may lose here as a result. If either Hollywood or Parasite has any shot at dethroning 1917 for Picture, they have to win here. I think there is enough enthusiasm for Parasite that it prevails over Tarantino, but if he does win Oscar #3 then maybe his film is more of a threat than we realize.

Will Win: Parasite

Runner-Up: Hollywood

If I Had A Ballot: I don’t understand how Marriage Story wasn’t a bigger threat here or elsewhere, but it absolutely deserves this one.

Best Cinematography

• 1917
• The Irishman
• Joker
• The Lighthouse
• Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood

In the Cinematography branch, it can take a while for them to shine to you, but once they do they really do. Like Emmanuel Lubezki before him, Roger Deakins has gone from perpetual also-ran to multiple winner. He will assuredly get his second Oscar for 1917 and there is no contest. If you are voting for this film in Best Picture you are also voting for it here, that’s the whole point of the film’s success. I see no competition on this front.

Will Win: 1917

Runner-Up: N/A

If I Had A Ballot: The Lighthouse

Best Costumes

• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women
• Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood

Nothing seems more classically in the Academy’s wheelhouse for Costumes than Little Women. It’s a period piece with many lavish dresses by a costume designer they’ve rewarded before. It is the safe bet. We’re I wanting to take a chance, I think Hollywood might be a real underdog here. The costumes are iconic, and it feels like the kind of film that could surprise here. I think the classic choice is the right one, but I’m wondering if this could be a shocker on the day.

Will Win: Little Women

Runner-Up: Hollywood

If I Had A Ballot: Hollywood

Best Editing

• Ford v Ferrari
• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Parasite

This is truly a hard one. The obvious film would be Ford v Ferrari: it’s the film with the most editing, and a showcase like that usually means a win. However, they often like to go with Best Picture contenders here, and while Ford is technically nominated for Picture, it is almost certainly running in last place. So I wonder if that’s enough to hurt it and either Parasite or Irishman can win? Thelma Schoonmaker is a living legend with 3 Oscars already, and her work on Irishman is unimpeachable. But I fear a subsection of voters think that the length of the film is her fault and won’t vote for a film that is so long. Which makes me wonder if this isn’t Parasite’s to lose. The editing is subtle but very effective (rewatch the centerpiece scene when the family comes home to see what I’m talking about). If it wins here then I think that foretells an upset in Picture. Since I’m erring on the side of no upset, I’m going to say that Ford wins this by virtue of “most.”

Will Win: Ford

Runner-Up: Parasite

If I Had A Ballot: Parasite

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• 1917
• Bombshell
• Joker
• Judy
• Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Whatever they did in Bombshell to make Charlize Theron look like Megyn Kelly is some kind of sorcery and should be rewarded. That said, the rest of the makeup work ranges from subtle and great to over the top and off putting. I think the film does enough good work to win here, but I could easily see 1917 or Joker sneaking in here if voters don’t want to reward the Fox News movie.

Will Win: Bombshell

Runner-up: 1917

If I Had A Ballot: Bombshell

Best Score

• 1917
• Joker
• Little Women
• Marriage Story
• Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker

Nothing has baffled me more this year than the dominance of the Joker score. I thought it was actively grating in the film and yet it seems poised to win the Oscar. What is even more baffling is that Thomas Newman is a legend in composing, has been nominated 15 times with no win, composed a genuinely great score for the Best Picture front runner, and yet he still isn’t going to win. It makes no sense. 

Will Win: Joker

Runner-Up: 1917

If I Had A Ballot: 1917

Best Original Song

• Breakthrough - "I'm Standing With You"
• Frozen II - "Into The Unknown"
• Harriet - "Stand Up"
• Rocketman - "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again"
• Toy Story 4 - "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away"

What a drag this category is. There were a few years there where this category had some real classic songs in it, but not this year. Absent any real hits, I suspect they will want to reward Elton John one more time. He has been omnipresent all year after Rocketman came out, so voters will likely be feeling pretty warm towards him right now. If any film stands a chance to beat him it is Harriet. The chance to make Cynthia Erivo (also nominated in Actress this year) an EGOT might appeal to some voters. But absent a runaway hit I think this category goes to the most famous name, and that’s Elton.

Will Win: Rocketman

Runner-Up: Harriet

If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, don’t know enough of the songs to vote

Best Production Design

• 1917
• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
• Parasite

The front runner here appears to be Hollywood, which does an impeccable job of recreating the Hollywood of 1969. I think voters who lived through that era will have a lot of affection for such meticulous recreations. But I am seriously wondering if 1917 can surprise here. While the film isn’t actually one long take, it looks as though they created miles of trenches and towns for the characters to walk through. For level of difficulty and shear amount of work, that film would win. And what of old Parasite? The film is all about the two homes it takes place in and how they reflect each other. And the biggest reveal of the film has to do with production design in a way, so maybe voters recognize that? I think the top 3 films here are all going to be very close in votes, so any of them would be believable as a winner. Hollywood feels like a traditional winner so I’ll go with that by a nose.

Will Win: Hollywood
Runner-Up: 1917
If I Had A Ballot: Parasite

Best Sound Editing

• 1917
• Ford v Ferrari
• Joker
• Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood
• Star Wars - Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker

It’s a two film competition in both sound categories. I could try to guess the split but I think both go to 1917. It’s a big war film and sound is an integral piece of it. That said, Ford v Ferrari is an impeccably sound edited film. Both are Best Picture nominees, so it really could go either way in both categories. Ultimately I think voters pick the film they want to win Best Picture.

Will Win: 1917
Runner-Up: Ford v Ferrari
If I Had A Ballot: 1917

Best Sound Mixing

• 1917
• Ad Astra
• Ford v Ferrari
• Joker
• Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood

Well it’s cool they remembered Ad Astra. It won’t win but it’s still cool. Same thoughts as above, they may split these two when the race between two films is close, but I ultimately think 1917 wins both Sound Oscars. Supposedly the two categories may finally be merged in the near future, which will make the Sound Oscar easier to predict. Hopefully that allows them to add a new category to replace it, like Stunts.

Will Win: 1917
Runner-Up: Ford v Ferrari
If I Had A Ballot: 1917

Best Visual FX

• 1917
• Avengers: Endgame
• The Irishman
• The Lion King
• Star Wars - Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker

Most categories make sense to look at from a “most likely to win” perspective, but in the case of this category I think a process of elimination helps. None of the new Star Wars movies have won this category, even against some easy competition (2015), so they won’t suddenly go there this year. No Marvel film has ever won this, and if Infinity War couldn’t beat First Man last year, I doubt Endgame can win here. The Lion King is a wild card because Jungle Book won a few years ago, so they like this type of VFX. But the discussion over if this is an animated film or not might ding it for enough voters that it loses here. So either 1917 or The Irishman will win this. We know voters often give this to the Best Picture nominee of the group if that’s an option, so which one do they prefer? I think the arguments over the effectiveness (and the need for) de-aging in Irishman hurts it. So 1917 might win by default. When in doubt, pick the film you know voters liked the most.

Will Win: 1917
Runner-Up: The Irishman
If I Had A Ballot: Avengers? I really don’t love any of them necessarily

Best Animated Feature

• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
• I Lost My Body
• Klaus
• Missing Link
• Toy Story 4

This may the most difficult category of the night, which never happens with Animated Film. Usually there is a big hit film that is front runner, but this year that’s not the case. The Academy seems very reluctant to go with sequels here, which only leaves the three more artistic films. If they want to finally reward Laika for their continued success in stop motion animation, they may not get a better chance than this (although Missing Link is their least well received film to date so a win for that would be odd). I think it comes down to the two Netflix films, Klaus and I Lost My Body. Body may be a bit too adventurous for them, so I think they go for the hand drawn throwback Klaus. But really almost any film could win this. Being so split it could honestly go to whatever is most widely seen, probably Toy Story. This will be a race to the finish.

Will Win: Klaus
Runner-Up: I Lost My Body
If I Had A Ballot: Abstain, only saw The Pixar and the Dreamworks

Best International Film

• Corpus Christi
• Honeyland
• Les Miserables
• Pain and Glory
• Parasite

Every once in a while they will ignore the big foreign film with multiple nominations (Amelie, Pan’s Labyrinth) in favor of something smaller or more Important. But unless they really want to give another one to Pedro Almodóvar I cant see them ignoring Parasite. Yes, no Korean film has ever been nominated before, let alone won, but I don't think their Eurocentric bias is a big enough hurdle this year.

Will Win: Parasite
Runner-Up: Pain and Glory
If I Had A Ballot: Parasite

Best Documentary Feature

• American Factory
• The Cave
• The Edge of Democracy
• For Sama
• Honeyland

I suspect I’m overthinking this category. So often this decade they’ve gravitated towards pop-docs, films that are about a popular subject that are easy to enjoy. They don’t have that option this year, so what do they do? I think American Factory is the easiest watch of the bunch, and it has the Obama factor going for it, so there’s your winner, right? But a small part of me thinks that For Sama can win. They historically have not gone for Syrian War documentaries, but this one seems to be from such a personal perspective that people are really gravitating towards it. The fact it won the BAFTA gives me pause on what to pick, as they are often a good bellweather on difficult categories. In the end I have to think that a film about American factories produced by a former president holds less sway in Britain than in America, which would explain their vote. So American Factory it is!

Will Win: American Factory
Runner-Up: For Sama
If I Had A Ballot: American Factory

And in the shorts I’m going with Hair Love (Animated), Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (Documentary), and The Neighbors’ Window (Live Action).

So 6 Oscars for 1917, making it the biggest haul for a Best Picture since Slumdog Millionaire. I will continue to hold out hope for Parasite, but this ridiculously shortened season seems to have resulted in less adventurousness or chance for discovery by the voters. So the obvious choices seem to pretty much all be the winners this year. I’m glad next year we will have the chance for a longer season again.